psuhoffman

It may have been banned but I’ve seem people fishing in the pond I pass off route 30 between my house and the Shopping center everytime I go. Seemed harmless though.

Wasn’t there some site that had the euro for free?

If the temperature bias is pronounced enough that would throw off everything else.

I’m not qualified to say but have to speculate how easy the fix will be. Somehow it took the old gfs cold bias and put it on hyperdrive. Wonder how far away a “fix” is.

@Ralph Wiggum My joke aside I feel bad for Wentz. I’m not one of the iggles fans who thinks he is soft. Everyone has to play banged up. But his injuries are the kind that preclude elite performance no matter how tough you are. You can’t suck it up and play through some injuries. I had similar problems, granted no where near his level. But playing soccer during my freshman season in college I started having repeated injuries. ACL, Achilles, various muscle tears. Once it started I never could stay healthy long again. It was extremely frustrating. I even attempted to resume playing twice in competitive adult leagues after taking several years off thinking I was “healed” only to have the same issues resume almost immediately. Later found out there was an underlying foot conditioning putting stress on my muscles and ligaments. But my experience makes me feel bad but also nervous Wentz will never be over his health issues. Last years injury was a freak thing due to a dirty play (imo) so maybe this assessment is unwarranted. We will see.

He probably misses the Dallas game due to Hat head.

Ehh my frustration with that pick wasn’t just the fact you don’t typically use that high a pick on a position you already have covered but that Hurts is a high risk high reward long term project. He really struggled reading a defense and making reaction throws. He was very good last year because OK designed a whole lot of one option pre determined throws with running options if the passing option was covered. That kind of thing won’t work at the NFL level. It will take time for him to learn to read a defense and it might never happen. He is very unlikely to be a viable backup option for a team with playoff aspirations this year. They would have been better off this year signing a veteran quality backup. Long term that pick could work out though. But what fan is excited for 3 years away...we want to win now.

they will...but what many fans need to prepare for mentally is that it is VERY likely several teams will get screwed this season and that is just how its going to be and this will likely end up being an "asterisk" type NFL season. For example...some players WILL test positive and the whole league can't pause because a few players on one team are out 2 weeks (or longer). And there is no objective way to say if the player is a star player then the team gets to make up a game later...fact is there will likely be a policy that if a team gets crushed by positive tests maybe something is done...but absent that teams will just have to suck it up and play through. And fans of a team need to be prepared that yes their star QB could suddenly miss a month with Covid and it could destroy their season...but that is just how its going to be. That or no season at all.

What about updates on things like daily numbers and new studies...so long as there is no policy or opinions of said data/studies thrown in?

I know my politics are well known and I don't pretend to hide my bias...but here me out on this. I am not sure how that thread can function without any politics given the current situation. And this is not intended to blast one side or the other... but there are two vastly different narratives right now wrt Covid, and which narrative people accept or more accurately are getting...seems to totally depend on their political identification. People who are conservative are tending to get their information about covid from sources which are offering a narrative (its not as big a deal, the economy is more important) totally opposite of the narrative liberals are getting from their information sources. This post is not taking sides...just pointing out that if you do not even start from a common point of reference wrt the status quo, and the differences in the perceived realities are based on politics...keeping politics out of it becomes impossible. You can't even say "if we just stick to the facts" because a lot of the problem is we can't agree on what the facts even are. Studies are contradicting, people (ON BOTH SIDES) are cherry picking data to support one narrative or the other, and that bleeds into policy. How do you discuss something without it being political when there are two diametrically opposed opinions about what the reality of that issue is based on politics? Even if all you do is discuss the issue from the "liberal" or "conservative" perspective you are inherently being political just by accepting one narrative or the other. I suppose it is technically possible to try to word everything in a completely neutral way but that is likely asking too much of everyone. BTW, this is something that started happening about a decade ago in policy debate that has at times made me want to get out of it. It used to be the "inherency" or status quo of a policy topic was accepted and the debate revolved around claims made regarding the efficacy of a policy decision on that topic. But about 15 years ago or so it started to become en vogue to run "Framework Critiques" basically attacking the whole perception of reality around the topic to try to frame the whole debate in a way that advantages you. Instead of accepting the facts this strategy was the try to throw out any facts that impede your argument and create an alternate reality that skews the round to your advantage. And its damn effective because the other team cannot possibly prepare because there are infinite "realities" you could try to manipulate the status quo into. There is no way to predict what nonsense I might try to concoct and since in policy debate "silence is consent" if you don't have an adequate retort they can win even with utter ridiculous nonsense. Policy debate has become 80% that now, because its way easier to prep that and puts the other team at a disadvantage, than it is to actually research all the facts on BOTH sides and come prepared for switch side policy debate. And worse...since judges today are mostly debaters from 10 years ago...its become totally accepted with very few judges taking points off for crazy stupid arguments that lack logical consistency because they were running that crap 10 years ago themselves. And before anyone thinks I am saying it is "crazy" because its conservative...trust me 90% of these plans are extreme liberal manipulations of reality. Keep in mind these are usually social activist high school students...you don't tend to get a lot of extremely conservative policy debaters at that level. But I see the same disturbing trend I noted years ago in debate bleeding into society now. Don't argue against facts you dont like...just throw them out and create a different narrative. Destroy objective reality and then you don't have to bother arguing against anything that is inconvenient to your claims.

Amateurs.... Upstairs for convenience basement fridge basement bar top shelf rail And the answers include 107 teenagers, a 5 and 2 year old, Phin, Mersky, Vice intelligence hiatus, mdecoy, rva, and that kid in Delaware who should still do his Fing homework and no I don’t want to drive there and fight you!

Why do people buy margarita mix? It’s just tequila, Cointreau or triple sec, and lime juice.

There was a May snowstorm that affected the higher elevations in VA and NC when I was a kid. Would have been around then. But I remember some higher totals very high up, places above 4000 feet in SW VA and NC. I also thought it was later in May, almost Memorial Day but my memory might be off it was a loooong time ago and where I was in NJ it was just a miserable weekend with temps around 50 with rain.

It only occasionally makes sense, occasionally

You are describing the micro effects of the macro pattern I discussed.

Split flow progressive pattern with lack of phasing (until OTS). Southern stream moisture stays south. Northern stream races by to the north. It happens. But it’s unlikely to persist forever. Especially as we move into Summer patterns when different factors become more critical to our precipitation prospects.

At least this time the map agrees with your point. But a 30 day anomaly over such a relatively small geographic area isn’t that significant. If that kind of pattern were to continue another 60 days or so it would become a problem. My guess is it won’t. These things tend to naturally balance out. These short term anomalies aren’t even really anomalies. The mean is just a bunch of anomalies averaged together. You are missing the forest from the trees.

You might want to learn how to read that map before using it to make a point...

A small area receiving 50-75% of normal precip for 1-2 months isn’t that significant. That happens quite frequently. For some reason no one makes a big deal everytime we get 150% of qpf in a 60 day period. The drought thing is overblown almost everytime it comes up. We haven’t had a true emergency level drought in a long time. The droughts being trumpeted lately are just typical variance that happens several times a decade. And before some brings up water restrictions...just because some localities didn’t properly plan their water usage when zoning doesn’t mean it’s a true anomalous drought everytime they run out of water due to poor planning and over population for the local water availability.

It hasn’t rained here in about 20 minutes. Good thing we are already sheltering in place.

Here we go...

I think the coop they used there is right on the bay so it skews low.

@RevWarReenactor they might not have "lied" to you, simply fallen to a common misconception. West can help wrt snowfall...but only if you get far enough west to enter another climate zone. The reason west helps is because of the contour of the elevation zones in the mid atlantic. If you go far enough west you get out of the coastal plain and into the Piedmont. Go far enough west and you get out of the Piedmont and into the mountains. With each elevation increase you enter a better climate zone for snowfall. But within each zone...north/south matters more than east/west. You can see that with these snowfall maps here...I continued the approximate contours from the NJ map to help show how once you hit the fall line...snowfall totals turn southwest due to the climate zone change...but within the coastal plain the contours run more west to east. You can see on the Maryland snowfall map how there is a tight gradient along the fall line. Had you moved 15 miles further northwest THEN you would have seen a dramatic change in your snowfall. But moving east and west within the coastal plain won't make much difference. Within each climate zone local meso scale terrain features like ridges and water matter more. So being right along the immediate coast...like on the barrier islands...will get less snow than 10 miles inland. But once inland a little snowfall won't usually change much going another 10 miles east or west. Someone right along the Delaware river will get less snow than someone 250 feet higher up in South Jersey for instance. Look at where you are on that MD map...you had the misfortune of moving into a local snowfall minimum also...a region that is between the Chesapeake bay and Delaware river...at very low elevation. Warmth floods up the bay and river.... you have a downsloping wind from every direction...and a wind off water from many directions. You are in a bad local area also. When I moved from southern NJ to northern VA I did see an increase in snow...but only because I went from the coastal plain to the Piedmont. Had I moved somewhere 15 miles further southeast in VA I would have actually gotten less snow than where I used to live southeast of Philly. Elevation is the reason going west helps...but if you go west and do NOT increase your elevation...you really aren't doing yourself any good. And if you go west and put yourself into a local snow hole due to terrain features you can even get less. I get way more snow than places west of me in the valley there. Hope this helps explain the real phenomenon you are describing.

First of all I hope you don't find this antagonistic. I don't find any of this to be hostile. We have different opinions but it's an interesting conversation that is all. It has been a crappy run for snow. I am not happy with the results either. But I am taking a purely statistics and probabilities side here. In the last 10 years DCA had 4 years above average. That still holds with the long term "normal" frequency. Those years can sometimes come in chunks with long periods in between...that has always been the case. There is a very random distribution to our big snowfall years. You have to look at the frequency over longer periods of time when you have that kind of distribution to see real trends versus just random noise. Like a coin flip. You can get 5 heads in a row...and think that is a trend...but if you step back and look over 20 or 30 flips you are more likely to see it even out towards the 50/50 probability. Over the long term the odds of a big snowfall year is about 30% and we will have runs of good or bad within but over the longer term it usually ends up evening out to about that 30% chance. I am not trying to say its been a good run for snow. Its been crappy. But the problem is we live somewhere that crappy is kind of the normal base state most of the time. I am just accepting that reality. Not saying you should be happy about it. WRT your take on different years...and how snow comes. Again you feel how you feel...no changing that, but what you describe...late snowfalls (or even mid winter ones) that melt right away...or turn to rain and get washed away...or imperfect storms that dry slot us...that describes A LOT of our snow. If you start to toss years that got to a decent result but did it with "flawed" storms you end up making our already crappy climo even worse. For instance if you remove the "good snow years" in DC where most of that snow came from one big storm OR most of that snow came late in the season then you end up tossing "good years" like 1960, 1972, 1983, 2000, 2015, 2016, 2019... take those away and now your probabilities of a "good year" go down to like 20% if not worse. On top of that a lot of the "mediocre" years become awful if you toss one big storm years...like 2006, or years where most of the snow came from flawed melty storms or late season storms....like 2018. Do that and now the chances of a total crap season goes up even more. So I get why you don't "like" those storms as much...I just don't think you get how rare what you "want" really is. How common has it been for us to get a winter where we get a lot of snow from multiple "cold" storms? How many of those have happened in the last 30 years? 1996, 2003, 2010, 2014, 2015... is that it? Am I missing any? If not that is 5 times in 30 years... that's only 17% of the time. You only have a 17% chance of getting that in any given year. I am not saying that isn't what you should want...and I want that too...I just realize how rare that is around here. I also think you are mis remembering some years. 2002 DC only had 3.2". It was 2003 that was great and that was a nino year. 2004 was only 12.5" so it was decent but not a "good" year, especially by your standards. 2006 DC had 13.6" and most of it came from one storm that was a meltathon right after so doesn't that fall into the type of years you say you don't like? 2008 was only 4.9 all of it came from a clipper in early Dec and then two 1" slush storms. I highly doubt you really thought that was "decent" at the time. 2009 was 7.5" almost all from one storm in March that melted the next day. So.... You are saying some of those werent that bad but they were every bit as bad as some of the years in the last 10 that you complained constantly that they sucked as they were happening. They were all way worse than 2018 was in your location and you hated that year when it was actually happening. I think time has a tendency to edit our memories. 15 years from now maybe all I will remember from this winter is that one good snowstorm I got in January and the day in the snow with my children and it won't seem as bad. But the numbers don't lie.