Baum

Uh-oh

Over performer incoming. Positive, the vestiges of it will be around in the form of frozen black slush all week.

I’d agree. If I could pull 6” on Thanksgiving Weekend would pretty much be a lifetimer for me. Note any other Chicago event you see for Turkey weekend turned to slop post event. That will not be the case this time. Real cold to follow allowing the snow to stick around. Big difference

Aggressive

Pretty much expected: ALTHOUGH, WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON WHAT THE EURO GUIDANCE IS SHOWING, AS IT IS LARGELY AN OUTLIER. THE GFS/GEFS AND THE CANADIAN SUITE OF GUIDANCE ARE NOT AS HIGH WITH TOTALS, BUT STILL BRING IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL. QC

They’ve been torched badly, as have all of us, with dramatic shifts in guidance within less than 48 hours the past 5 years. This time, they’re boxed in by the holiday so guessing will have to jump the gun on headlines overnight if trends hold. And again, given climatology this would be a substantial event for this period in the season.

If the L goes west of you you’ll be dry slotted. Fact of life. And I’ll worry about that after I’ve got my 4” of WAA snow.

Moisture robber not an issue. Checks box.

Today’s wind maybe a blessing ripping the remaining leaves off the trees.

https://x.com/weatherchannel/status/1993657240813777293?s=61 RIP….no pun intended

Just an FYI that was his call for the 1979 Chicago Blizzard. No lie.

I put mine up to the Eurhthymic,’ s Green Christmas

That would be a great start to this cold season based on recent winters.

Way too early in the season for a big event in our neck of the woods. But establish the pattern, and hope it sticks as we slide further into December

I was born in 1962. I can recall two Thanksgiving events. 1975 and that tree snapper about 10 years ago. Both were a sloppy mess with crap ratios. Both underperformed just based on early season climatology.

Hate to say it but an amped Madison special at the break of December ain’t necessarily a bad thing based on trends it seems for nearly a decade. We need to bury the south east suppressed program early this year.

It’s Tuesday. A lot of you aren’t going to make it.

The early ride up the roller coaster is my favorite part.

Cruel overnight runs sounds like.

Would be rare indeed to see that kind of snowfall this early. Though I guess we all know to slash ratios at this time of year. Positive would be this type of event falls into a number of winter projections this year. So perhaps it’s a tell.

“Potential”is the key word. Your maturing as a forecaster and have learned the 3 key letters of good forecasting CYA. It’s been a pleasure watching you grow through the years.

You must be new

I’m thinking not: Saturday A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.

Festive if anything, to open the holiday season. Maybe a whitening on the newly strung garland and lighting. Beats 62 and open golf courses in my world. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, A POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIPITATION PAIRED WITH SUFFICIENTLY COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MAY SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT. WHILE THERE'S A LARGE SPECTRUM OF PLAUSIBLE OUTCOMES AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THE MULTI-ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY FOR 1"+ (10:1) SNOWFALL IN 24 HOURS CENTERED ON SATURDAY-SATURDAY EVENING IS >=60% EVEN AT THIS EXTENDED LEAD TIME. THE ECMWF/EPS DEPICTION HAS BEEN GENERALLY MORE ROBUST THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE SUITES, BUT ULTIMATELY IT'S MUCH TOO FAR OUT FOR SPECIFICS, ASIDE FROM FEELING COMFORTABLE WITH ~60% POPS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. OUR MAIN MESSAGE IS TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THIS TIMEFRAME DRAWS CLOSER FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS TO POST-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL. -LOT

Too soon. Let the hope and hype build for another 48-72 hours before you crush dreams.