Baum

Sorry for the little off topic. And not trying to be a smart azz or randomly be negative on someone's performance. But in truth, mostly less than one paragraph descriptions or analysis even in short range situations. I scan these pretty much daily, and have been surprised at the fact you can glean nothing new or in depth from their discussions.

interesting not seeing much discussion regarding GFS in theses more under the hood AFD's: QC: THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE SHOWING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, ISENTROPIC LIFT, AND DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET. DESPITE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT, WE'LL STAY VERY COLD AT THE SURFACE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDING HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. MODEL CONSENSUS DEVELOPS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SNOW COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOT:THERE IS SOME MODEL SUPPORT FOR A SUBTLE MINOR AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TO TRACK ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOWER TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BENEATH A REGION OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 130 KT UPPER JET STREAK OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WHILE A COUPLE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE LIGHT QPF ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN IL BY 00Z, BETTER CHANCES FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEAR TO COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE TRANSITS THE WESTERLIES SOUTH OF A CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA. MODELS VARY WITH TIMING OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE AXIS DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH A GENERAL CONSENSUS TAKES IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY, WITH SNOW CHANCES DIMINISHING BEYOND SATURDAY EVENING. VARIOUS OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS VARY CONSIDERABLY WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS, DIFFERENCES ALSO NOTED IN THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF VALUES IN THE 0.10-0.20" RANGE HOWEVER DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL. MKX: Lame. Maybe the worst midwest discussions out there these days.

2"-5" er while we bide our time waiting for the main event. Not terrible.

NAM seems to agree.

A+....and needed while riding the lock avatar.

easy to do. But I've seen to many times over the years where a model that has been in consistent fail mode for a season finally hits it right. Not like the other globals weren't in on a decent event 3-4 days ago(Euro up until OOZ 2/8 run) and flipping back and forth. Irregardless, I defer to RC's post above discussing frequency of potential smaller events being on the table. Stii, the GFS event fits the profile of what can happen in this pattern. And never ever was concerned about a less than 15" call at ORD by 2/15. My hope now is we can get to some form of spring by mid March after we've flooded the pattern with cold which has a way of hanging on in some residual fashion long after the worst of it has passed.

Model hugger exposed.

now's as a good of time as any for a coup. Ironically, over the weekend it was the other globals that painted a better picture while the GFS flooded the country with brutal cold. Now the script has flipped. We know from historical reference it can go either way. Hate to see us escape this pattern without a decent high end event.

^ agreed most models aren't seeing it. Model of choice: 6Z GFS. Glad, it's finally getting it's act together.

not good trends in our neck of the woods for another arctic frosting event. But these can change on a dime 6-8 hrs out,

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 812 PM CST MON FEB 8 2021 UPDATE 812 PM CST A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW CONTINUES RIGHT ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN PRODUCING UP TO 1" PER HOUR RATES OF FLUFFY SNOW. THIS BAND SEEMS TO BE DRIVE LARGELY BY AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED ENHANCED BAND OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OVERHEAD. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES ABOVE THIS LEVEL (7.7 DEGREES C PER KM PER KDVN 00UTC RAOB) AND SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT, HAS SUPPORTED THIS SINGLE MORE INTENSE BAND OF SNOW. HIRES FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS NOT HANDLED THIS AREA OF SNOW WELL AT ALL. HOWEVER, IN THE NEAR TERM (NEXT 2 HOURS), IT APPEARS THIS BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD, AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO UNDERGO SOME WEAKENING AS IT LOSES THE BETTER UPPER JET SUPPORT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AREA THAT THIS BAND IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY INTO THE CITY AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN 2 TO 5 INCH TOTALS ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. AT THIS TIME, WE DO NOT HAVE ANY PLANS TO EXTEND THE ONGOING ADVISORY PAST 10 PM. HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO SEE IF A LOCAL EXTENSION MAY BE JUSTIFIED. KJB

parachutes falling fast.

I was afraid to say anything.

^ post valentines blizzard the mother lode drops in.

Most of the day real nice mood flakes. About 2 pm flake size became very small similar to Saturday's event and did so for maybe a half hour before the larger dendrites mixed in steadily and eventually became the main flake type. No reason to make up. Perhaps a bad description. But it is a nice steady snowfall now. Should add my location is 63rd and Belmont in Downers Grove today.

^ I'll pass out kudos when I have 3-4" of fluff down. Snowing light to moderate with nice dendrites now.

starting to see a few large flakes mixing in with the ongoing dust.

this is it?

there is a february 10-12th thread.

I guess if you want to debate semantics regarding mid winter or late winter that's fine. My point regarding the issue of the depth of the cold and it's severity for this time of year stands.It's cold no doubt. But it is not unusual or extreme cold for this time of year in the midwest. Now if Chicago doesn't break above 20 degrees before February 20 or we get hit with an airmass that puts us at -20 I'd say we have achieved brutal cold. or unusual cold longevity.

^ typical cold for a mid winter arctic outbreak.

1. since the change in pattern on or about 1/15 Chicago has done quite well as some predicted. 2. Though I don't see anything big imminent, any of these waves may surprise, and if not repeated 1-2 " fluuffers every 24 hours are on the table. I get, not for everyone. But it is a deep winter pattern with a deep snow pack. 3. I don't see a way out of this cold pattern without a decent storm. 4. I'm not an expert, Instinct , pattern recognition, historical reference.

nah. believe.