Powerball
-
Posts
14,287 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Powerball
-
Still, it is unfortunate that we got several runs (that seemed to be consistent at first) with those insane amounts setting up further NW. Now some people will be disappointed over getting what will still be a big snowstorm (just not epic/crippling/historic).
-
I don't think you're remembering Jan 4-6, 2014 correctly. See below to review the surface/mid/upper level maps. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2014.html
-
Feb 15/16 2021 actually first came to my mind as a possible analog for this storm.
-
I figured they would have at least corrected themselves when the 1st person questioned their original tweet. But instead, they dug in their heels and doubled down.
-
True, but also take into consideration it was always NW of the OP.
-
Not a good sign to see the GEFS shift south like the op GFS, if there's hoping it was a fluke.
-
It's not even about being a weenie though. They're just loud and wrong. @michsnowfreak you see this shit? @RCNYILWX come get your coworker.
-
Ed D. has a point...
-
Most of the recent model runs have the precip ending by Thursday evening. But that EURO run might grind another 1-2" more out on top of what was on that map.
-
I'm sure it would bury MKE.
-
Besides that, the 06z runs might have been the start of the models correcting to relatively more realistic amounts in the heaviest band.
-
That would be close to my original call, but not trip worthy. It's actually a bit drier than the 00z run.
-
These are pretty bullish watches too. DTX's early call is 12-15" in Detroit.
-
There was another bump NW on the 06z RGEM.
-
The 00z UKMET was a decent bump NW and is considerably wetter, but with the caveat that it was already on the far southern end of guidance.
-
Meanwhile here, I'm going to be dealing with a significant ice storm that will likely knock out power. That said, plane tickets ain't cheap, lol.
-
I haven't decided yet.
-
Considering it's been on the north/amped end of the model suite, relative to the other global models, that would be disconcerting.
-
True. But to the point mimillman got at, hopefully we're not seeing the end of the north trend already.
-
I have to imagine those Ohio numbers near the shore are, at least somewhat, lake enhanced. It would even more crazy if it were 100% synoptic.
-
It's looking like we're not going to get more clarity to pull the trigger (or not) on our travel plans this round of runs.
-
GFS looks like it ticked south with the main system.
-
Not enough time to make a 1000 mile trip if the weenie runs end up being right.
-
Not only that, but to provide more buffer, it's sitting squarely in the middle of the southern UKMET/GGEM and the northern Hi-Res models.
-
True. Frankly, when considering all the model outputs right now, DTW's in a solid position.
