Powerball

There's still the red eye, if things suddenly trend to the unlikely.

Hi-Res gonna Hi-Res. But I'll eat crow if they end up sniffing out a last second NW trend with the 2nd wave.

The 18z does show more ice for Collin/Denton counties, but in fact it shows less for everywhere else. That said, it's still a significant amount of ice (0.50"+).

True, but when you compare the 18z HRRR with the 12z HRRR run, there was a significant increase in ice amounts (widespread 0.50"+ amounts in the northern/eastern suburbs, and widespread 0.25"+ amounts elsewhere).

I saw that post But even if all of the upper level ingredients did come together, there was in all likelihood going to be issues on a mesoscale level that the global models wouldn't pick up on until we were near the onset that would prevent such an extreme outcome (such as moisture transport being disrupted, wake subsidence from each of the subtle shortwaves, and the best area of forcing being a lot more narrow/transitory, etc.). I mean, the idea (according to the late last week / weekend model runs) was there would be a 1000-mile long conveyor belt of moderate/heavy snow over 100 miles in width that lasted 36 hours in any one location. It seems too good to be true when I put it that way.

@Baum There it is! Just like old times. (just messing with you michsnowfreak)

Well anything is possible, but how likely was it really for a 125-year storm to occur, especially with a synoptic mess of a system? Plus, since we've all been tracking weather, how often have we seen storms unravel (slowly or rapidly) before their onset?

That is slightly less bad than the 06z run, fortunately.

1. If you own a home, buy a generator. 2. Find a friend/relative with power to stay with. 3. Stay at a hotel with power.

In all fairness, that's a 10:1 ratio map, so likely somewhat underdone.

GFS might have dialed down the amounts in Collin County on the 06z run, but it also bumped them up drastically for the rest of the Metroplex. I haven't seen the 12z run yet.

BTW, I'm sticking with my preliminary call as final. Widespread 10-15" with isolated higher amounts*. *Besides the areas on the northern and southern edge getting screwed by slight shifts, there could also be a narrow area from far NE Indiana / far NW Ohio into the Detroit area and SW Ontario that gets slightly lower amounts as the better forcing for the 1st round sets up just NW of there and the better forcing for the 2nd round sets up just SE of there.

Of course they say that *AFTER* the models have trended away from such an outcome (thus it seems unlikely)...

There is at least some question about it snowing continuously in many areas. It seems increasingly likely there will be a lull Wednesday night. But I get your point (it's all still one congealed mess of a system), and it's valid even if unpopular.

*ahem*, the proper term is "orientation"...

They had it last February. There are some hotels (though not many) that have backup generators.

I did book a room though. I'm not getting caught without power like I did last time.

FFS. The 06z runs are the worst yet for ice. Widespread 0.50"+ freezing rain across *ALL* THE Metroplex. And that's not including the sleet on top of it. What a ****ing disaster.

You mean it had a shift in orientation.

Pretty decent bump south with the 2nd wave on the 00z GFS.

But somehow, Toronto still makes out quite well with the storm on the 00z RGEM. Yet, Cleveland gets a massive sleet fest.

I think Brian D's original title was more appropiate for this storm.

Maybe not, it hit a wall in Kentucky.

It might be cutting due NNE into Ohio.

2nd wave relatively organized on the RGEM over Memphis (60hr). EDIT: Meant Nashville.