Powerball

Just as I posted that:

Decent CU field has developed along the dry line in South Oklahoma too. Could pop soon.

Shame.

At this point, there's fairly high confidence that there will be multiple severe weather episodes during this period. The most ominous days for a widespread severe weather outbreak appear to be Monday (5/2) and Wednesday (5/4), as a pair of strong shortwave rotate through the region around the base of an upper level trough and there will be sufficient moisture return The main thing these systems will have going for them (that has largely been lacking with Plains severe weather setups as of late) is good directional *AND* low-level shear supportive of rotating supercells. Timing and cloud cover, as usual, will be the main question marks when determining the locations that will face the highest risk. Shortwave #1 Shortwave #2: Shortwave #3:

Out of curiosity, why? They may suck at predicting it, but they can't control it. Believe it or not though, there are parts of the country have had a stellar Spring so far.

And speak of the devil, now there's a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 6pm for the northern suburbs of DFW:

Latest Hi-Res models are all bringing organized convection into DFW (mainly areas north of I-20) this evening.

SPC has put the NW half of DFW under the slight risk area in the latest outlook. 12z HRRR sounding doesn't look too shabby either.

It's highly conditional obviously (mostly depending on how tonight's convection evolves), but I wouldn't sleep on the severe weather potential tomorrow in DFW either. The soundings are looking decent (no cap, solid lapse rates, modest low-level shear, etc.), even though none of the models show much activity due to nebulous forcing. I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight risk area from the SPC either.

The new 30-yer averages do give credence to the feeling that the start/end of seasons has shifted forward about 1 month, with April trending cooler and October trending warmer.

18z GFS says "don't be do sure!"

I'd figured you'd still be in Florida right now.

Early indications are the Dakotas could be looking at yet another late season blizzard this weekend.

Eventually, just the essence of stronger heating from the increasingly higher sun angle has to overcome the stupid that has been this upper level pattern for you guys these past several Springs.

It is a small town operation, likely with staff that is relatively young/inexperienced for these types of situations. I'd cut them a little slack.

Oh, and the latest freeze on record for DFW is 4/13/1997. So statistically, we should be home free from any more freezes.

Certainly part of the reason we've had a warm spring (relative to average) and a more active severe weather season so far. Since 3/25, we've only had 1 day below 70*F, and that day was 69*F. Also, last freeze was on 3/11 (spot on with average).

FWIW, 94*F is just the convective temperature right now. As the airmass is modified throughout the day at different levels in the atmosphere, the convective temperature can increase or decrease. In today's case, the height falls / cooling mid-levels expected, steady advection of low-level moisture keeping dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s and a shortwave that will enhance the forcing of updrafts should all help to lower the convective temps and erode the cap more efficiently than yesterday.

000 FXUS64 KOUN 120844 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 344 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Severe Weather: A highly conditional risk for severe weather exists to the east of the dryline this afternoon, with uncertainty higher than normal regarding storm initiation. Much of the uncertainty is related to the degree of capping as well as the degree of subsidence that will be over our area in the wake of a southern stream wave clearly evident on water vapor imagery currently ejecting out of northern Mexico. The timing and positioning of the wave will be such that much of our area will be too far north and west to benefit from any lift associated with the wave and will instead be in the subsident region of the wave during peak heating this afternoon. With the parent upper trough still well to our west across the Rockies we do not expect much in the way of broader large scale ascent or mid-level cooling to help initiate storms. It will therefore be mainly up to the dryline circulation as our main forcing mechanism for convective initiation this afternoon. Models have been fairly consistent in their lack of support for convective initiation across much of the area (outside of the ECM model) for days now, which does not add confidence we will see much activity at all this afternoon. However, models are not infallible (see yesterday`s convection across southeast OK) and forecast soundings show little to no CIN remaining along the dryline by 21z this afternoon. It would not take much more than some localized backing/convergence along the dryline to lead to initiation. So while we are currently not expecting widespread coverage of storms, it is entirely possible we see one or two thunderstorms along the dryline by late this afternoon. Perhaps the most likely scenario will be thunderstorms developing and moving into our area out of north Texas on the northern periphery of the southern stream wave, with little to no activity developing across portions of north-central Oklahoma.

000 FXUS64 KTSA 120856 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 356 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... The prospects for severe storms forming to the west along the dryline late this afternoon and migrating into our area this evening appear low due to subsidence behind the subtropical wavementioned above. .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Lingering storms with the wave this evening will be moving out early, and most of the night is then likely to be quiet.