Powerball

Andover's about to get slammed again by a line of severe storms that has blown up along the cold front. Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Wichita KS 901 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022 KSC015-173-300230- /O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-220430T0230Z/ Sedgwick KS-Butler KS- 901 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN SEDGWICK AND WEST CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTIES... At 900 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Potwin to Downtown Wichita, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Public. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. Locations impacted include... Wichita, Andover, Park City, Valley Center, Bel Aire, Goddard, Maize, Benton, Downtown Wichita, Kechi, Eastborough, West Wichita, East Wichita, Eisenhower National Airport, Northeast Wichita, Mcconnell Air Force Base, Jabara Airport and Oaklawn. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central Kansas. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3766 9763 3778 9747 3791 9732 3791 9716 3792 9715 3792 9703 3760 9720 TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 278DEG 33KT 3789 9707 3769 9734 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH $$ CUELLAR

It's been a long time since I can recall a tornado this photogenic in the Plains...

Another video of the Andover, KS tornado:

It definitely hasn't been a bust for KS / NE, which that's where much of the action today was always expected to be. The threat further down into OK was conditional.

You can still see weak capping on that sounding, and it's really giving the storms that have tried to fire the flux.

Just as I posted that:

Decent CU field has developed along the dry line in South Oklahoma too. Could pop soon.

Shame.

At this point, there's fairly high confidence that there will be multiple severe weather episodes during this period. The most ominous days for a widespread severe weather outbreak appear to be Monday (5/2) and Wednesday (5/4), as a pair of strong shortwave rotate through the region around the base of an upper level trough and there will be sufficient moisture return The main thing these systems will have going for them (that has largely been lacking with Plains severe weather setups as of late) is good directional *AND* low-level shear supportive of rotating supercells. Timing and cloud cover, as usual, will be the main question marks when determining the locations that will face the highest risk. Shortwave #1 Shortwave #2: Shortwave #3:

Out of curiosity, why? They may suck at predicting it, but they can't control it. Believe it or not though, there are parts of the country have had a stellar Spring so far.

And speak of the devil, now there's a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 6pm for the northern suburbs of DFW:

Latest Hi-Res models are all bringing organized convection into DFW (mainly areas north of I-20) this evening.

SPC has put the NW half of DFW under the slight risk area in the latest outlook. 12z HRRR sounding doesn't look too shabby either.

It's highly conditional obviously (mostly depending on how tonight's convection evolves), but I wouldn't sleep on the severe weather potential tomorrow in DFW either. The soundings are looking decent (no cap, solid lapse rates, modest low-level shear, etc.), even though none of the models show much activity due to nebulous forcing. I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight risk area from the SPC either.

The new 30-yer averages do give credence to the feeling that the start/end of seasons has shifted forward about 1 month, with April trending cooler and October trending warmer.

18z GFS says "don't be do sure!"

I'd figured you'd still be in Florida right now.

Early indications are the Dakotas could be looking at yet another late season blizzard this weekend.

Eventually, just the essence of stronger heating from the increasingly higher sun angle has to overcome the stupid that has been this upper level pattern for you guys these past several Springs.