Stormchaserchuck1

I think thunderstorms in the Midwest are driving the N. Hemispheric pattern right now (models).

That's a big +EPO all of a sudden, in tangent with -400dm max +NAO. We are going to be very warm as a departure by mid month. Expect later this week/weekend to verify warmer than forecasted.

We are in somewhat of a global warming spike though. The very fact that Global SSTs could move up so quicky could raise alarms, may keep it closer to the nearest global SSTA max. I have a lot of the same vibes as 2005.

I find it interesting that the warmest anomalies are over Russia (a reversal), and there is mean colder air just about everywhere else.. PNA region and EC. that means that the cold air spreads out and temperature reverses over Russia, as not an anomaly.. pretty good sign for next Winter, just that verbatim.

Russia has been cold Oct-Apr. I wonder what correlation that is to next Winter. Here you go.. since 1980, next Winter analogs: https://ibb.co/Xzm5Hh1

This is AAM, which is an Earth-momentum index. It's strongly correlated with ENSO, and this below is -GLAAM, usually correlated to La Nina events. https://ibb.co/JdfyjXS

Not over 15 named storms in El Nino, I think ever.. maybe this year we'll break it, at 16.

Big time -AAM here https://ibb.co/DgfwdwX Maybe we'll be disconnected until November, then magically correlate to El Nino like last year.

Anyway, this is really setting up to be a hot pattern mid April. https://ibb.co/DgfwdwX -AAM, says what El Nino?

Let's hope for a +NAO next Winter.

We haven't really been realized, because the Summer pattern's have been stagnant since 2012. Added moisture will make us hotter I think.

July clouds again. -like a hot, hazy 90 degree day, lite cumulus veering off to the side in the humidity. I'm really interested to see what kind of heat we experience this Summer.

There's not even a pattern that is favoring this warmth. It's all organic. Crystals in the Bermuda triangle or something lol

This is a pretty good +NAO here. https://ibb.co/wM1p55N Look at how it does it again, +PNA correlates to +NAO, and -PNA/+EPO correlates to -NAO. The Atlantic is completely breached, as that a subtropical block would essentially even out under it, sometimes via the Pacific.

In like a lion, out like a ide https://ibb.co/26dq2cT https://ibb.co/C1FGzWv

Summer-hot pattern also on D-15 models. https://ibb.co/fGMcCM2

The cumulus in the sky looks like July. July clouds. It's probably going to be a hot Summer.

Please don't give me a -NAO next Winter until we saturate this pattern alot..

I believe now that pressure systems are better than high latitude blocking. 13-14 and 14-15 both had ++NAO. and 15-16 was ++GOA low. Again, until we max out the raw global energy potential..

My old home Mount Shasta, CA has a point and click forecast of 35"! They are 3500' and have about the same climate as us.

09-10 was horrible. I've never seen 3 blizzards melt in 3 days each time like that. Would have rather there been no snow. That's why the start of the warm/stagnant pattern was somewhere 05-08.

The patterns sort of ante'd up in extremes this Winter. I would say, for example, a normal effective -NAO is >+1000dm, vs +600-700dm's historically. Because of expectations it will never reach that, although the potential is there at this time. If we don't stretch the pattern, it will keep stagnating snowless for us which is what I fear... A little off topic but that's what's going on.

I would say that since we've had above normal precipitation, a hotter Summer is more likely this year.

DCA +3.6 NYC +3.8 BOS +3.9 ORD +3.6 ATL +4.0 IAH +3.3 DEN +0.5 PHX +0.0 SEA -1.0 *edited 3-31

That's a good point about 2017. This current regime started more in 2016, like I said there seem to be consistent happenings in consecutives of years. The last two years, between March and May we had pretty significant ENSO warmings, and both times we ended up in positive territory. This is the 3rd year in a row. After May both of the last 2 years waned off into La Nina. So with +2.3c Nino 1+2 in 2017, and real warmth in Spring 2021 and 2022, all 3 years going La Nina later, I'm a little trepidatious especially with the N. Pacific consistently showing -PNA through, right now, Day 15+ models. (although it's hard with the thermocline looking like that, right now, to not go into El Nino. (the western subsurface is also +,somewhat unconnected,fuel for eventual +ENSO -which may be happening right now, an evening out of global SSTs))