SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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No it's good. CMC went weaker and less amped compared to 0z but 12z GFS/Icon got much better. It's good to see a range of outlier solutions this far out. The good thing is they would all still give this region its biggest storm in years.
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Things will still move around for a couple days.
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GFS has dual lows otherwise the track would be very similar to the other models. Still 12z gives 6-10" for the metro.
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His calls were essentially a record warm, snowless blowtorch though.
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None were as bad as snowman's torch winter calls.
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I said 2-4" From Feb 5-20 and that looks to be on the mark.
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The record Gulf ssts and tendency for SE ridge to be stronger than forecast could finally help us out.
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Storm explodes as it moves past us. Mixing will be maximized. Wet soils/ground due to 1-2" of rain + any snow melt. Frequent 45-55mph gusts with peak 60+ especially when the front clears tomorrow evening.
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I agree. This has white rain event written all over it for most. Regardless everything will get washed away anyway. The bigger story will be the winds that follow.
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That's actually really good to see given Icon/GFS. You don't want to be in the bullseye this far out so having two solution on opposite extremes is a good thing
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They'll also ignore that everyone outside the US has been on fire this winter. It was enough to set more monthly global temperature records.
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March 2001 was bad but the 3 foot blizzard that never happened was arguably an even bigger bust.
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He's a troll but you definitely can't discount a southern slider. We've been horribly burned for years and there's still a lot of time for changes, good and bad.
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Doesn't look any windier than usual. Maybe a low end advisory event at best. Gusts look to cap around 40-45mph but since lapse rates have been unusually strong this season I can see 50mph.
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Ridge placement looks bad out west. Unfortunately I think the 20th is a southern slider. Parts of Mid Atlantic/SE will end up with more snow than us this winter.
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Sun Angle isn't a problem until after 1st week of March. It certainly won't be an issue in February.
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Honestly not sure that applies anymore. I'm watching ensembles
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I'd like to see a list of previous storms when the AO was -5. I doubt you'll find many cutters. You will find blizzards however
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A cutter with a near -5 AO is unheard of. Something has changed. The SE ridge would've never been this strong in the past
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Cut to someone saying this would've still been a cutter 100+ years ago No CC has completely altered the norms. Probably why we're not experiencing the usual Nina pattern this winter either.
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Probably an inch or two front end snows. I see big potential for the 20th. All major models show something brewing.
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HRRR gives nothing. Dry air eats it all up
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That looks generous given HRRR & radar. I'll go with an inch tops
