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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Outside of no snow at all I agree.
  2. SnoSki14
    Also if we are back to the 30s-50s does that mean the Arctic was as warm and sea ice as low back then as it is now?
  3. SnoSki14
    Oh man get ready for another torch then. We saw how those past "favorable" analogs worked out. I think I'd feel better if every forecast called for a torchy, snowless winter right now.
  4. SnoSki14
    Models are all over the place but the Euro likely has the best handle on things. We'll see if there's any consistency today, of course anything beyond a few days is a total crapshoot.
  5. SnoSki14
    Humans developed nuclear weapons that could literally destroy the atmosphere. We're responsible for mass ecological extinctions. You have to be a complete fool to think humans can't overpower natural forces but please stay ignorant.
  6. SnoSki14
    Wow that's ridiculous. From the furnace to the freezer.
  7. SnoSki14
    And it'll likely never happen again pending some unforeseen major event.
  8. SnoSki14
    I'd be shocked if 99L isn't a storm by tomorrow. This is a well developed wave near peak under favorable conditions. Keep an eye out this could sneak up on models.
  9. SnoSki14
    Decent pattern if we could get a storm around there. Core of the trough should stay over the Midwest with ridging in NE Canada and off the coast at times.
  10. SnoSki14
    There appears to be a high likelihood of a storm targeting the east coast in about 10-14 days. Too early to say if the steering pattern would allow for impacts but the trend this summer has been for increased ridging especially over NE Canada and we've already had 2 systems impact the northeast.
  11. SnoSki14
    Storms have had trouble developing until they get closer, very 2005 esque in that regard. Steering pattern will be very favorable for US impacts going into September. I expect models to show more development soon.
  12. SnoSki14
    Ominous setup with northeast ridging for September. Opens the door for tropical systems.
  13. SnoSki14
    The dual storm scenario with this storm in the gulf while another approaches FL is definitely possible. Disturbances like these in the NW Caribbean in late August is worth monitoring. It's def getting it's act together with tighter rotation and widespread popcorn convection developing.
  14. SnoSki14
    I will confidently take the under on that. It would have to be above 98 for that to happen and I don't see anything like that in the forecast.
  15. SnoSki14
    We're already seeing a burst of activity and this is in the lull period. Looks like it'll get even uglier than I thought and that steering is brutal for the US.
  16. SnoSki14
    Steering pattern favorable for US landfalls, particularly ominous for gulf coast states.
  17. SnoSki14
    You're still getting spin-ups despite unfavorable conditions. It's only a matter of time before storms go nuts.
  18. SnoSki14
    Who said it was over, all I said was the worst heat has likely passed. That doesn't mean it can't get really hot again though. And yeah by mid Feb the worst of the cold has likely passed. That doesn't mean you can't get snowstorms though.
  19. SnoSki14
    Not seeing a lot of 90F potential moving forward. Maybe very end of the month and early September?
  20. SnoSki14
    There always seems to be a lull around this time as its a transition point between early & peak activity. Even 2005 had a break in early to mid August. However with a massive MJO wave moving east and shear on the decline there's very likely to be a surge just after the 20th. There's zero evidence of a 2013 repeat. Also just look at the e. Pacific and their current activity, that'll be us in about 10 days or so. Steering currents also favor west tracks vs OTS storms.
  21. SnoSki14
    The tropics will likely flip like a switch. Even now despite unfavorable conditions we're still seeing invests try to spin up. I think we'll get our next storm shortly after the 20th (21-26 most likely). It's possible we get a rogue subtropical or brief MDR storm before then but our first big time storm won't come till late August. We could see simultaneous storms in the 25th through September 15 time frame. A couple of them could be majors. After the 15th there could be another lull but another active period in late September through October is very likely.
  22. SnoSki14
    I wonder how much influence the ENSO state really has in today's rapidly warming world. The Nino was completely decoupled from the pattern we saw last couple winters, wondering if the same will hold true this year. And finally is the era of cold/snowy winters over for good. We're seeing unprecedented warming with top 10 warmest months left and right since the super Nino. I wonder if warm/wet winters will be the future now and we just hope we could get lucky.
  23. SnoSki14
    What a mess a TS did on this area, I'm still drying out my basement. Thankfully the power was only out for 6hrs though half the town is still without it. I don't think we're done either this year but I really hope we don't see another system. They may be exciting in the moment but the aftermath is horrendous, it's def not like a snowstorm.
  24. SnoSki14
    Endless heat. I think we'll set record 90 degree days this year. Also more tropical activity seems inevitable.
  25. SnoSki14
    Nam/GFS are gung-ho with a period of very strong winds in a few hours. Also sting jet after center passes starting to look likely.
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