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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    A warm outcome is definitely likely but weird things happen during seasonal transition periods. So a random March snowstorm wouldn't surprise me even if it's mixed in with warm weather all around.
  2. SnoSki14
    Just hoping for one more 5-6" event to put us over 40" and wrap this winter up. Things are looking more spring-like post 2/20-21.
  3. SnoSki14
    Some models going for that Miller B route. And they still appear to be trending that way so we'll see what happens. I know some will want to compare Tuesday's bust with Thursday but they are very different storms. The presence of an arctic high is key.
  4. SnoSki14
    The Nam is useless after 48hrs meaning very low model skill. It's also almost always too amplified.
  5. SnoSki14
    It's got good potential. Models keep trending less amped or basically the opposite of tomorrow. Could be a last hurrah too as pattern moving forward doesn't look very favorable.
  6. SnoSki14
    I think so but these trends are important especially as we get closer in. Either way I think Thursday will be a big wintry mess.
  7. SnoSki14
    Some significant ponding for sure. Temps will struggle to warm though so prob not your typical warm (50-60F) cutter.
  8. SnoSki14
    PV overhead whereas Tuesday it's in the Midwest.
  9. SnoSki14
    There's a good chance we see a front end dump but would want it to trend a bit colder/more suppressed. Sucks that the blocking is gone.
  10. SnoSki14
    Don't see the need for warnings and advisories around here. Temps will be above freezing.
  11. SnoSki14
    We get a mini arctic intrusion after Tuesdays system which will set the stage for Thursday. If it weren't for Tuesday's more amped system this one would've been the big cutter. Still a ways to go though. Let's get through Tuesday first.
  12. SnoSki14
    The trend is your friend. Hopefully we get a nice thump before any changeover.
  13. SnoSki14
    Thursday is looking like the more wintry threat as models amp up Tuesday. Could end up being a SWFE or even a later stage Miller B.
  14. SnoSki14
    Some flooding issues probable Tuesday.
  15. SnoSki14
    If that high is as strong as depicted for the late week system then there will likely be a strong thump to mix to rain. It has an extreme SWFE flare to it. A stronger, more amped Tuesday storm will also help.
  16. SnoSki14
    Don't see why Tuesday won't keep trending warmer. Strong SE ridge, no high whatsoever. Nothing to keep the CAD in place beyond current snow cover. The system is weak overall and moves quickly so it won't be a big torchy cutter or anything. A cold rain looking more likely for a lot of places.
  17. SnoSki14
    Looks like some light ZR possible soon.
  18. SnoSki14
    We'll still have to watch where these highs set up. A high closer to us would def result in much colder surface temps. Models will have difficulty with so many disturbances. I'm leaning towards a cold rain for both Tuesday (mid 30s) & Thursday (near 40) that'll get soaked into the pack. Thursday will def trend much warmer if the big gfs phase is correct...think 50s. Icing issues probable for NW zones.
  19. SnoSki14
    Thats a flood threat.
  20. SnoSki14
    So why couldn't it go back to a wintry look. You can't automatically assume the warm scenario will win out. There's still every reason to believe we get more snow late Feb or March.
  21. SnoSki14
    Signs point to an end to our wintry weather (for now) however I do think we'll see another round of blocking end of Feb or early March.
  22. SnoSki14
    I wonder if flooding will be more of an issue now. The gfs essentially has two cutters with the 2nd bringing rains to Canada.
  23. SnoSki14
    Guidance is coming in warmer so I don't see ZR being a concern. It'll probably just be a cold rain for most of NYC metro. NW areas will need to watch out though. The 18th could be more problematic.
  24. SnoSki14
    Dallas will drop below zero and have teens for highs. Insanity. There will massive impacts on travel and infrastructure. We already saw it with the pileup.
  25. SnoSki14
    Clown range but Nam is really amped on the 16th. Seems like models thinking they'll be a phase, which would be good news for the following system. If the 16th event is strung out then the next system will be a strong cutter or hugger. The recent -5 AO is a huge red flag for a wintry event so I fully expect that to occur at some point before winter ends.
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