
SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Snow-ice-rain for the NYC forum 7PM Mon 1/25-6AM Wednesday 1/27
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Looks like a Miller-B/SWFE hybrid. The primary could get pretty far north but we'll have a nice airmass in place and plenty of blocking nearby. I doubt suppression will be an issue with such a strong west trough. In fact if blocking ends up weaker we'll run the risk of mix/rain however the block is much stronger than mid Dec. -
Snow-ice-rain for the NYC forum 7PM Mon 1/25-6AM Wednesday 1/27
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
A deep western trough will constructively interfere with a strong NAO blocking regime. This is not 2010. There will be ample resistance to the blocking which could benefit us. -
Snow-ice-rain for the NYC forum 7PM Mon 1/25-6AM Wednesday 1/27
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
We also have a strong western trough which will definitely try to pump the SE ridge. This could be a perfect squeeze play but not a lot of room for error. -
January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Stormlover74's topic in New York City Metro
The models ramming the block are going to be wrong. I see Miller B or SWFE. Caveats apply this far out. -
January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Stormlover74's topic in New York City Metro
The cold could be pretty prolonged once it gets here. -EPO will deliver the cold and blocking stays put. I don't trust models breaking down EPO so quickly given the PV will continue to be attacked into early Feb. February will look substantially different this winter than last couple years and yes eventually we will score. February is the snowiest month for a reason. -
January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Stormlover74's topic in New York City Metro
Hopefully we can sneak in a couple small events. Nothing worse than cold & dry. -
January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Stormlover74's topic in New York City Metro
Meanwhile Madrid & parts of Europe are getting hammered. -
January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Stormlover74's topic in New York City Metro
Could end up very PDII-ish by the 20th. SE ridge gets a bit stronger but stout -NAO remains with cross-polar flow possible. Could set the stage for a widespread overrunner to coastal type event near the 20th. I see 4 chances with one on the 8th (long shot but still worth monitoring), the 12/13th (mixed look on models w/better PNA than 8th), the 15/16th (good PNA/atlantic blocking w/arctic air coming south - could see something like Jan 2005), and then 18-20th. -
January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Stormlover74's topic in New York City Metro
It's pretty clear that the 1st half of Jan wouldn't be the best however there'd still be opportunities to score. The 2nd half is filled with potential due to vastly improved pacific drilling in colder air. EPO/PNA improves, AO/NAO stay negative though not so negative as to lead to an 09/10 suppression pattern. Normally this would start to break down in Feb in a Nina pattern but the SSW and the atypical Nina atmosphere could easily drag this out further. Remember how atypical Febs have been in what should've been ideal west-based Nino patterns. -
January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Stormlover74's topic in New York City Metro
This is a darn good snow pattern coming up. It's not very cold but cold enough however by mid Jan the west pops a PNA and EPO region improves significantly likely allowing some arctic air to pour south. -
Wintry event or cold rain for January 9 NYC subforum.
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
In Dec 2010 it took a while before the pattern produced. I'm getting ready to sell the 8th system. Does not look good upstream and models are trending away from a hit. -
Wintry event or cold rain for January 9 NYC subforum.
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Dec 2010 El Nino? -
Wintry event or cold rain for January 9 NYC subforum.
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
I'll take my chances 6 days out. Remember Albany was supposed to whiff with December storm and they got blasted. I would not wanna be in the jackpot 6 days out. -
Wintry event or cold rain for January 9 NYC subforum.
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Some serious potential with this one. All models have some type of storm for this time period. It reminds me of past snowstorms where the models showed potential several days out and came together as we got closer. The AO/NAO will reach their most negative numbers around this time as well. -
Obs and nowcast Friday afternoon-night 18z NY Day 2021- 12z/2
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Oh joy a nice cold rain, 36F. I think I would've preferred the 60F+ cutter forecast last week.- 58 replies
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- freezing rain
- sleet
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(and 2 more)
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January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Stormlover74's topic in New York City Metro
The Jan 8-10 threat could be the first legit snow chance to look out for. Too far out for Ops though, good storm for ensembles to decipher. -
January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Stormlover74's topic in New York City Metro
Arctic cold usually equals dry. You don't want that if you want snow. -
It seems the models are adjusting to the massive upstream blocking. Heights are substantially lower on the EPS even before the 10th vs a few days ago.
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January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Stormlover74's topic in New York City Metro
It's actually been trending more favorably too. We might not have to wait till mid month for something. -
You're going to get 40+ inches from mid Jan to mid Feb. Expect coastal after coastal under a retrograding -NAO pattern. Pacific flips big time by mid-month. SSW could carry this pattern well into February.
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January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Stormlover74's topic in New York City Metro
Well hopefully it doesn't all go to sh*t as we approach mid Jan. -
January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Stormlover74's topic in New York City Metro
SSW can be pretty beneficial for snow chances regardless of where the main cold ends up. It will definitely help improve the Pacific side, which would help a ton. Even modest improvements from the Pacific could yield big snows during intense atlantic blocking periods. Even better that this would occur during a favorable snow climo period (mid Jan through mid Feb). -
January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Stormlover74's topic in New York City Metro
The hail mary early Jan event could still work out. It's incredibly marginal but a coastal track is favored right now. I think Euro is way too far inland with this especially since it's coming off the heels of the NY's system which will push the baroclinic forcing east. The NY's system acts as a mini 50/50 as well. -
January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Stormlover74's topic in New York City Metro
But will it actually lead to anything is the question. -
I think there's infinitely more potential this Jan than last year. Yes the Pacific isn't great but it wouldn't take much to score with massive atlantic blocking in place.