SnoSki14

The cold could be pretty prolonged once it gets here. -EPO will deliver the cold and blocking stays put. I don't trust models breaking down EPO so quickly given the PV will continue to be attacked into early Feb. February will look substantially different this winter than last couple years and yes eventually we will score. February is the snowiest month for a reason.

Hopefully we can sneak in a couple small events. Nothing worse than cold & dry.

Meanwhile Madrid & parts of Europe are getting hammered.

Could end up very PDII-ish by the 20th. SE ridge gets a bit stronger but stout -NAO remains with cross-polar flow possible. Could set the stage for a widespread overrunner to coastal type event near the 20th. I see 4 chances with one on the 8th (long shot but still worth monitoring), the 12/13th (mixed look on models w/better PNA than 8th), the 15/16th (good PNA/atlantic blocking w/arctic air coming south - could see something like Jan 2005), and then 18-20th.

It's pretty clear that the 1st half of Jan wouldn't be the best however there'd still be opportunities to score. The 2nd half is filled with potential due to vastly improved pacific drilling in colder air. EPO/PNA improves, AO/NAO stay negative though not so negative as to lead to an 09/10 suppression pattern. Normally this would start to break down in Feb in a Nina pattern but the SSW and the atypical Nina atmosphere could easily drag this out further. Remember how atypical Febs have been in what should've been ideal west-based Nino patterns.

This is a darn good snow pattern coming up. It's not very cold but cold enough however by mid Jan the west pops a PNA and EPO region improves significantly likely allowing some arctic air to pour south.

In Dec 2010 it took a while before the pattern produced. I'm getting ready to sell the 8th system. Does not look good upstream and models are trending away from a hit.

Dec 2010 El Nino?

I'll take my chances 6 days out. Remember Albany was supposed to whiff with December storm and they got blasted. I would not wanna be in the jackpot 6 days out.

Some serious potential with this one. All models have some type of storm for this time period. It reminds me of past snowstorms where the models showed potential several days out and came together as we got closer. The AO/NAO will reach their most negative numbers around this time as well.

Oh joy a nice cold rain, 36F. I think I would've preferred the 60F+ cutter forecast last week.

The Jan 8-10 threat could be the first legit snow chance to look out for. Too far out for Ops though, good storm for ensembles to decipher.

Arctic cold usually equals dry. You don't want that if you want snow.

It seems the models are adjusting to the massive upstream blocking. Heights are substantially lower on the EPS even before the 10th vs a few days ago.

It's actually been trending more favorably too. We might not have to wait till mid month for something.

You're going to get 40+ inches from mid Jan to mid Feb. Expect coastal after coastal under a retrograding -NAO pattern. Pacific flips big time by mid-month. SSW could carry this pattern well into February.

Well hopefully it doesn't all go to sh*t as we approach mid Jan.

SSW can be pretty beneficial for snow chances regardless of where the main cold ends up. It will definitely help improve the Pacific side, which would help a ton. Even modest improvements from the Pacific could yield big snows during intense atlantic blocking periods. Even better that this would occur during a favorable snow climo period (mid Jan through mid Feb).

The hail mary early Jan event could still work out. It's incredibly marginal but a coastal track is favored right now. I think Euro is way too far inland with this especially since it's coming off the heels of the NY's system which will push the baroclinic forcing east. The NY's system acts as a mini 50/50 as well.

But will it actually lead to anything is the question.

I think there's infinitely more potential this Jan than last year. Yes the Pacific isn't great but it wouldn't take much to score with massive atlantic blocking in place.

It appears more likely that we like not see a Xmas eve repeat for NYE. Atlantic blocking will be having an effect on this pattern with significant AO/NAO drops prior to the storm. MJO is also in phases 1-2 within circle. I'm not surprised the models are catching on however this doesn't mean we'll be seeing snow anytime soon. The Pacific is looking very hostile (for now) and will compete against the more favorable Atlantic.

Way too early for that. That's a stout block on the ensembles so there's always a chance for something to sneak in. GEFS didn't look too bad. Even a brief relaxation of pacific jet would go a long ways.

The indices didn't support another huge cutter like Xmas, not shocked at all this is trending towards a SWFE. Plenty more time for trends too.

This December was a lot better than I expected so I'll take it as a win. I'm sure it'll snow again.