SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Nice teleconnections today. Falling AO/NAO and even a PNA trying to rise to neutral? MJO also briefly curling into phase 8 as well. Looks like after Dec 5 is when things could get interesting.
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It comes down to whether we can avoid the extreme RNA pattern of last year + whether the strength of Atlantic blocking could suppress SE ridge enough to allow for snow events. GEFS going back and forth on strength of blocking. New runs look better
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That would be nice even down here. I just hope it holds
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That is a nice look if it holds. Some shades of 2010 in there
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In January that would work. It's tougher for us in December. That's better for New England
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GEFS pulled back some. Patience will be needed
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I'd rather see no snow at all than have to witness that. Crushing
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I'm used to a crappy decade of December snows so expectations are extremely low every year. The 2000s are a long memory now. But it's good to see areas to my north cash in early, build up some snow cover, get that colder air in. It doesn't hurt.
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You don't think there's a chance it trends stronger as we get closer to December? Maybe not Dec 2021 levels but still strong
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An early guess but think we'll have to wait til January for any meaningful snows. The Pacific doesn't wanna play ball. I also don't like the MJO curling back towards phase 6.
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It'll be December by then. More than NNE should be getting snows
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Pattern looks like crap for snows outside of NNE. So far looking like a copy of 2021
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Looks like a repeat of last winter We need a major ENSO overhaul to get something different
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Looks like we'll get our mild late November to early December period after all.
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Probably too many competing influences I'm just gonna use ensembles only and no Ops beyond 3 days
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Model performance has been awful. You really can't take any solution seriously past 3 days.
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You need a good airmass in place ahead of the system for November snows to work out Also blocking is fairly weak and doesn't lock 50/50 low in
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Ingredients are there for a powerhouse system but any frozen will likely be reserved for NNE and high elevations
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Twitter is where intelligence goes to die. All I see is the same ole Nina crap that we've had for a decade now. Atlantic blocking has to do all the heavy lifting yet again No help in the Pacific
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Well the warm weather should make you happy at least
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Nice drive through the snow squall. Was coming down pretty good. Temps dropped from 40 to 34
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First flurries of the season in Somerset
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Blocking is too weak and doesn't hold 50/50 in place Models are flip flopping a lot though
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LR looked pretty crappy again Arctic blocking too weak and pacific ridging breaks down.
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Agreed. By March you're quickly heading into spring/summer or at least it feels that way. Though more often than not the weather frequently reminds you it's still March.
