SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Well it was still a bit above normal and that's against the warmer norms however the 2nd half was solidly BN.
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It's been a very long time since October started this cool, I'm used to seeing 80s every time. On that note we probably will see 80 pre cold front Friday
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Stinks that the good stuff will likely be offshore.
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Nice surge into Myrtle
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Zero, high moving in and trough lifting out. SC/NC landfall guaranteed
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Widespread 2-3" would be great. Crappy timing but it is what it is
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Correct, the hybrid definition fits since it's also entangled in the trough and lacks a core. I do think if it had a couple days it might try to rebuild a core. It will try though hence the models intensifying it before landfall.
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Yeah the surge will be a problem for a big chunk of real estate. I wonder if people are that concerned though since it'll only be a Cat 1.
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The complacency and hubris is the killer. Yeah let's just build a city partially underwater. Let's build floating neighborhoods in a known hurricane region. But blocking patterns and warmer sea surface temperatures have elevated surge/flooding. Hurricanes peaking before landfall like Michael was unheard of.
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It's 100% correct which is why everyone's so triggered. They don't want to face that reality. But my pushback is that storms like this have happened before so any isolated event needs to be looked at carefully and not lumped into a broader narrative. I think it's honestly more concerning that people continue to build heavily in obvious death trap regions like Cape Coral. How is that crap even legal.
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Not enough to really intensify as the core is completely gone. It's still structurally sound and could get a baroclinic assist but anything beyond a high end TS or low end Cat 1 will be impossible
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Just like the 10K death toll estimation from Katrina. I do think there will be many deaths but not 100s
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That N/NW eyewall is vicious, probably supercharged from the trough.
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Next time we need a Cat 6 to finally sink Florida back into the ocean
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I still can't get over the hubris of people building in zones where hurricanes happen and where eventual sea level rises will wash developments away. Cape Coral is literally a death trap
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As long as they're SE of the eye they're getting the surge.
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On radar it looks like it's making a beeline towards Cape Coral & Ft. Myers
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Yes but the storm itself was further north. Part of the rain on the 12z was a redevelopment of the remnants of Ian rather than the main system
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GFS continues to trend in that direction
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That's good with regards to flooding however the movement NE will still be very slow across the peninsula so someone's gonna get 20-25" minimum. Unfortunately the odds of another landfall continue to rise and models that do take that route restrengthen the storm.
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CMC has been a western outlier its entire cycle. I'm leaning Ft. Myers, either just 10-20 miles north/south or over it.
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Icon with another major landfall near Charleston
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Ian moving with the shear and getting ventilation from the trough. At this point only an EWRC would equal a less than major hurricane impact.
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Ft. Myers area in danger now for direct hit however biggest danger overall will be the flooding for most of central FL. A stall or very slow movement is likely over Florida which means catastrophic rainfall totals of 20-40" with isolated amounts even higher than that.
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Everyone wants this they just don't wanna admit it.
