SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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If you love meteorology you should be interested in this even if it doesn't affect you. This should be quite a site.
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2022 Atlantic hurricane season whining/banter
SnoSki14 replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters
A combo of storm surge & inland flooding is what causes the most damage and kills the most people. If you're interested in wind then look at tornadoes as only Cat 4-5 storms will produce anything close to an average twister. -
87F Most in the mid-upper 80s. If it weren't for the clouds I think many would've seen low 90s.
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I think Newfoundland is more at risk. Bermuda is very well prepared for even a major. Also the trough phasing on some of these models really explodes Fiona (930s) as it hits SE Canada
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Massive core disruption is the only way this keeps going west.
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Slim chance at 90F for warmest spots tomorrow but that's it after that well unless we got some ridiculous October ridge I suppose.
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Autumn is easily the best season due to the journey towards winter as well as the events outside of weather surrounding it (holidays, football, etc).
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Thoughts and prayers to your 95+ readings Maybe in October
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At this point Fiona ain't missing the day 6 trough so now we'll have to see what the orientation of that trough is. Euro is very different compared to other guidance with it. How far west Fiona gets also makes a big difference. You'd need huge large scale changes for any sort of impact here though. SE Canada is easier
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Bermuda can handle Cat 3+ pretty easily. It's PR, DR that I'm worried about.
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I don't see any type of favorable blocking pattern and/or strong neutral/negative tilt trough coming in. The only chance of an impact is the Euro scenario where it gets left behind close to the east coast that ridging builds in enough to push it NW. Slim odds though
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There's compression of heat ahead of a strong trough but 95 will still be hard to pull off. Also cloud debris of any sort would get in the way. Low 90s max is my guess
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No chance in hell at 95
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Ensembles are pretty cool for that period.
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The weakness in the NW Atlantic when Fiona nears Hispaniola has gotten stronger which causes more poleward movement making it easier to get swept by the next trough. If it gets left behind like the Euro shows then it would come close to the coast. Early guess with 70% certainty is that it gets swept halfway between coast and Bermuda.
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Personally would love a nice big major hurricane halfway between Bermuda and the east coast. Perfect wave track
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There's no way this will follow the GFS given its current state. Honestly a track just south of Hispaniola before any north turn wouldn't surprise me.
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Wild to see the run to run changes a week out though.
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Earl was a mess for days but eventually it became a pretty significant hurricane. I think this will be a threat down the line. Models like its future prospects regardless of where it heads. The weaker it is now the greater the landfall risks
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They're ignorable until they're not. The weaker this stays now the more likely it'll get further west. Models seem pretty bullish on development down the line even if it plows into Hispaniola.
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We seem to be due for a flip soon. Likely not as cold vs prior periods due to continued effects of cc but much colder than we've been. Could this winter be the beginning of that. I hear 2000-01 being thrown around as an analog. Could be fitting since it marked the change from the mild/BN snow years of the mid-late 90s.
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Models can't figure things out 5 days out let alone 10. For example Euro's mega ridge from a couple runs ago is completely gone.
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Anything beyond 5 days is fantasy range to me.
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GFS ends with a weenie trough to end September. How JB like
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GFS really firing up the tropical threats