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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    If west trend wins expect a weak system at landfall with flooding being the main issue
  2. SnoSki14
    Looks like we should get a good batch. Don't know if there's anything severe there though but any rain is good
  3. SnoSki14
    I didn't even bother following any "threat" for today. You'll get some showers and that's it
  4. SnoSki14
    I expect a major convective burst over center and rapid strengthening soon
  5. SnoSki14
    Some remnants could eventually get here
  6. SnoSki14
    Ian looks perfect. The environment looks incredible. I expect a hurricane by 11am tomorrow
  7. SnoSki14
    If it keeps trending SW however it may avoid the massive dry air entrainment
  8. SnoSki14
    Hilarious considering it may not even hit Florida
  9. SnoSki14
    Looks like it hit 41F which is a rare sight nowadays in September. I see many 30s readings in more sheltered spots
  10. SnoSki14
    The GFS forecast will be about as right as you've been for this season.
  11. SnoSki14
    The timing is everything for an east coast special. The storm has to be far enough N&E to feel the trough but not get pushed OTS by it and it can't get trapped by the ridge either.
  12. SnoSki14
    The exposed circulation isn't just an Eddy. It's very well defined and my guess is that it eventually goes westward towards the convection.
  13. SnoSki14
    Agreed I'll take that Euro in a heartbeat. The weather has been relentlessly boring
  14. SnoSki14
    I would be surprised if the Euro doesn't correct west a tad. Think the 18z run overdid the east track and most of the eastward models went back west again.
  15. SnoSki14
    I think it is. Just watch
  16. SnoSki14
    This is a northeast storm I can feel it. Piece of the trough gets left back and phases with the storm.
  17. SnoSki14
    There's a leftover trough that tries to do it but not strong enough. Another option is it gets blocked by the high building over it as it moves NE. Should be an interesting few days to say the least
  18. SnoSki14
    Down to 62F from almost 80 just a couple hours ago
  19. SnoSki14
    The GFS is correcting towards the other models. I expect more east shifts I think we'll see a sharper turn NE in to SW FL. That's a strong trough in the east.
  20. SnoSki14
    The strong high pressing against this system means it's unlikely to head OTS so easily.
  21. SnoSki14
    Precip is expected to redevelop over the region as front moves east
  22. SnoSki14
    For anyone hoping for east coast impacts you want it to trend further N&E So either a stronger storm or a stronger trough. The 12z Euro sort of splits the difference and the storm ends up trapped & weakening in the SE. Given the low pressures over the east I would actually favor a more NE path.
  23. SnoSki14
    Hurricane force winds will be 100s of miles across as well as the surge so I think it's gonna affect a lot more people than you think. It'll also be going extra tropical which will spread out the strongest winds further out from the center.
  24. SnoSki14
    Insane GFS run. Even Halifax gets a good hit
  25. SnoSki14
    It might be pretty impactful regardless of where it ends up in the Gulf. Strong highs all around are preventing a quick recurve east and we could see trough enhancement post landfall a la 06z GFS & Euro.
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