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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    There's a leftover trough that tries to do it but not strong enough. Another option is it gets blocked by the high building over it as it moves NE. Should be an interesting few days to say the least
  2. SnoSki14
    Down to 62F from almost 80 just a couple hours ago
  3. SnoSki14
    The GFS is correcting towards the other models. I expect more east shifts I think we'll see a sharper turn NE in to SW FL. That's a strong trough in the east.
  4. SnoSki14
    The strong high pressing against this system means it's unlikely to head OTS so easily.
  5. SnoSki14
    Precip is expected to redevelop over the region as front moves east
  6. SnoSki14
    For anyone hoping for east coast impacts you want it to trend further N&E So either a stronger storm or a stronger trough. The 12z Euro sort of splits the difference and the storm ends up trapped & weakening in the SE. Given the low pressures over the east I would actually favor a more NE path.
  7. SnoSki14
    Hurricane force winds will be 100s of miles across as well as the surge so I think it's gonna affect a lot more people than you think. It'll also be going extra tropical which will spread out the strongest winds further out from the center.
  8. SnoSki14
    Insane GFS run. Even Halifax gets a good hit
  9. SnoSki14
    It might be pretty impactful regardless of where it ends up in the Gulf. Strong highs all around are preventing a quick recurve east and we could see trough enhancement post landfall a la 06z GFS & Euro.
  10. SnoSki14
    If you love meteorology you should be interested in this even if it doesn't affect you. This should be quite a site.
  11. SnoSki14
    A combo of storm surge & inland flooding is what causes the most damage and kills the most people. If you're interested in wind then look at tornadoes as only Cat 4-5 storms will produce anything close to an average twister.
  12. SnoSki14
    87F Most in the mid-upper 80s. If it weren't for the clouds I think many would've seen low 90s.
  13. SnoSki14
    I think Newfoundland is more at risk. Bermuda is very well prepared for even a major. Also the trough phasing on some of these models really explodes Fiona (930s) as it hits SE Canada
  14. SnoSki14
    Massive core disruption is the only way this keeps going west.
  15. SnoSki14
    Slim chance at 90F for warmest spots tomorrow but that's it after that well unless we got some ridiculous October ridge I suppose.
  16. SnoSki14
    Autumn is easily the best season due to the journey towards winter as well as the events outside of weather surrounding it (holidays, football, etc).
  17. SnoSki14
    Thoughts and prayers to your 95+ readings Maybe in October
  18. SnoSki14
    At this point Fiona ain't missing the day 6 trough so now we'll have to see what the orientation of that trough is. Euro is very different compared to other guidance with it. How far west Fiona gets also makes a big difference. You'd need huge large scale changes for any sort of impact here though. SE Canada is easier
  19. SnoSki14
    Bermuda can handle Cat 3+ pretty easily. It's PR, DR that I'm worried about.
  20. SnoSki14
    I don't see any type of favorable blocking pattern and/or strong neutral/negative tilt trough coming in. The only chance of an impact is the Euro scenario where it gets left behind close to the east coast that ridging builds in enough to push it NW. Slim odds though
  21. SnoSki14
    There's compression of heat ahead of a strong trough but 95 will still be hard to pull off. Also cloud debris of any sort would get in the way. Low 90s max is my guess
  22. SnoSki14
    No chance in hell at 95
  23. SnoSki14
    Ensembles are pretty cool for that period.
  24. SnoSki14
    The weakness in the NW Atlantic when Fiona nears Hispaniola has gotten stronger which causes more poleward movement making it easier to get swept by the next trough. If it gets left behind like the Euro shows then it would come close to the coast. Early guess with 70% certainty is that it gets swept halfway between coast and Bermuda.
  25. SnoSki14
    Personally would love a nice big major hurricane halfway between Bermuda and the east coast. Perfect wave track
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