SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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I didn't quite get that with that post. Usually the warm weather posts are much more overt. This one did mention the east coast trough at least and subsequent storm signal
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There's definitely a signal for something but tracking it well over a week out is a little silly.
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I think the T-Day system will be a tall order right now however Euro cutter causes a wave break that might help big time in early December.
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8 out of 10 times these things don't work out but odds are a little better this time. The Arctic blocking looks real. GEFS also agrees
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Well we may have blocking in December this year which should help as long as the Pacific isn't a complete dumpster fire like last year MJO going to 7 to end November and then slow down but there are some hints it could go to 8.
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I'm not getting my hopes up until this Nina crap finally goes away. Consider any snow a blessing
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First 20s shortly, already down to 30F
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Ensembles looking pretty decent for December. Notice -AO trending stronger everyday Could be a few mild days in there too. Agree with snowman that snowy pattern will have to wait until AO blocking materializes.
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Very favorable MJO progression from November to December No wonder arctic blocking is showing up on ensembles
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Likely happens for most tonight and definitely by the weekend for most urban/coastal regions
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Record -EPO favors cold/dry most likely but the brunt of the cold is to our west and some SE ridging will keep a gradient so some storminess wouldn't surprise me
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With high amplitude MJO expected to traverse phases 7-8 to start December and AO going negative odds are better than normal for a cold/snowy December Nina climo is also generally favorable for Dec as well.
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Pretty sure it is the warmest 1st two weeks of November or in the top 3 at least. Going from a +12 to +15 anomaly from November 1-12 to a -5 to -10 will be a major shock to many
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Hard pass. These anomalies are ridiculous. It's like +15 right now. AC was running this morning because it was like 72/68
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December 2015 style warmth
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Think there's some warmup end of November or early December before next chill down. Looks like a high amplitude MJO passage into 7 which should ignite Atlantic blocking
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Winter 2022-2023 Promises Plenty of Mid Season Mayhem
SnoSki14 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
This is so much better than NOAA just using standard ENSO climo for their forecasts. -
GFS with an interesting system on the 18th. Interior snows wouldn't surprise me. Also with record -EPO and Greenland blocking trending stronger I wouldn't be surprised to see the low end up further south.
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It doesn't look that different. Yeah the anomalies are stronger but that's common as we get closer to the forecast date.
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That's still a cold look though. Anomalies are way below normal
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It's more of a hybrid system given its massive wind field.
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I think winds will be quite strong Friday, moreso than models are showing. We should break through the inversion with highs near 70F
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The more west solutions means it's phasing with the front instead of getting kicked by it. I actually prefer it over plain rain. At least we might get some severe weather & strong gusts out of it. GFS has also been trending with developing a quick coastal on Sunday with leftover baroclinic energy and a tilting trough. If it were just a couple weeks later I'd think we might get some snow out of it.
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Wind shear is unusually low for the region in November. Will soon dip SW over warmer waters too.
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Nothing exciting has happened in months. Take anything you can get
