TheClimateChanger

The alleged cool zone doesn't withstand scrutiny. It's warming rapidly in those areas in the summertime at official, first order NWS observation sites.

Des Moines, IA Relative to 1961-1990, the last 14 years at Des Moines have averaged 2.8F warmer in June, 1.2F warmer in July, and 1.7F warmer in August [+2.9, +1.6, +1.7, respectively, compared to 1951-1980].

I just don't buy it. The missing warming just seems to be bad data. The official NWS stations show plenty of warming. Omaha, NE Relative to 1961-1990, the last 14 years at Omaha have averaged 2.9F warmer in June, 1.2F warmer in July, and 1.8F warmer in August.

I remember 10-15 years ago the Union of Concerned Scientists came out with a projection for future climate changes, and @michsnowfreak wasn't having it. So I wanted to take a closer look at southeast Michigan to see how we're doing there, and, boy, it's not looking good. Toledo, Ohio (1961-1990) Findlay, Ohio (1961-1990) Flint, Michigan (2010-2023) The last 14 years at Flint, Michigan have averaged 0.6F, 1.1F, and 0.9F warmer than the 1961-1990 normal at Toledo, Ohio; and -0.4F, +0.3F, and +0.2F compared to the 1961-1990 normal at Findlay, Ohio in JJA. So Flint's summertime climate is now slightly warmer than the late 20th century climate of Findlay, Ohio, nearly a degree warmer than that of Toledo, Ohio, and only about a degree cooler than that of Columbus, Ohio (not shown). Dayton, Ohio (1961-1990) Cincinnati, Ohio (1961-1990) Detroit, Michigan (2010-2023) The last 14 years at in the Motor City have averaged -0.1F, +0.9F, and +0.9F in JJA compared to late 20th century Dayton, Ohio, and -0.8F, 0.0F, and -0.4F in JJA compared to late 20th century Cincinnati. So Detroit's summertime climate is now on par with the climate of the late 20th century is far southwestern parts of the State of Ohio (a tad warmer than Dayton, ever so slightly cooler than Cincy) and extreme northern Kentucky (CVG is across the border in Kentucky). Verdict The Union of Concerned Scientists' forecast has done incredibly well, but the low emissions forecast for 2050s looks too conservative. Probably in between low and high emissions at the moment. The near-term prognostication looks very good.

How are the Mississippi River levels holding up? I know things got very low late last summer and autumn.

But in any event, if you are in northern or central Virginia, at a constant elevation, you now need to be in south central Pennsylvania to experience your normal late 20th century climate. We can see the mean temperatures at Harrisburg/Middleton Area, Pennsylvania, are now in between those of Sterling/Dulles Area, Virginia and Charlottesville, Virginia from the late 20th century. In another decade or so, you will probably need to be in Williamsport or Scranton, PA, to experience a typical late 20th century Virginian climate, and by 2050, maybe Syracuse? I mean from the data I posted above Scranton is only about 2 degrees cooler than Sterling, Virginia (1961-1990) and the warmest years are already approaching Sterling's mean. Williamsport is even warmer being at a lower elevation. Harrisburg/Middleton, PA (2010-2022) Sterling/Dulles, VA (1962-1990) Charlottesville, VA (1961-1990)

Also, note I am using 1961-1990 mean since these give a good picture of the late 20th century climate many of us were familiar with when weather forums came about. These were the normals through 2000 and into 2001 until they were eventually replaced with 1971-2000 normals. The past decade and a half has seen the apparent climate for every location in the eastern U.S. shifted about 150-300 miles south compared to what was considered normal in the late 20th century. Somebody might say we need 30 years to do this analysis, but if I was a betting man, I'd certainly wager that the numbers will only get progressively worse over time.

Here is the same comparison with Albany, New York. Mean temperature for 2010-2022 is 49.9, compared to 47.2 for 1961-1990. Again, the coldest year since 2010 is warmer than the late 20th century mean. Average seasonal snowfall for 2009-10 through 2022-23 is 54.5 inches, which is down about a foot from the 1960-61 through 1989-90 mean of 66.2 inches. And here is Scranton, Pennsylvania: Mean temperature for 2010-2022 is 51.7F, compared to 49.1F for 1961-1990. Yet again, we see the coldest year since 2010 is warmer than the 1961-1990 mean. Snowfall for the period 2009-10 through 2022-23 is down about 20% from 1961-1990 mean

Using annual temperatures oversimplifies things a bit. By annual mean, over the past 14 years, temperatures at Burlington, Vermont are now warmer than the annual mean temperatures of late 20th century (1961-1990) Albany, New York, and approaching that of Scranton, Pennsylvania. However, the winters are still much snowier than the latter two locations. Part of it is the winters are significantly colder than Scranton, but they are actually milder than late 20th century norms at Albany. Despite winter temperatures averaging some 5 degrees warmer than 1961-1990, there's been almost no drop in seasonal snowfall yet. Burlington, Vermont (2010-2022) (2023 not included, but running even warmer than these values) Mean Temperature Mean Snowfall (2009-10 through 2022-23) Burlington, Vermont (1961-1990) -- Note that the coldest year since 2010 is an unbelievable 2.1F warmer than the 30-year average from 1961-1990 Mean Temperature (1961-1990) Snowfall (1960-61 through 1989-1990) Albany, New York (1961-1990) Mean Temperature (1961-1990) Snowfall (1960/61 - 1989/90) Scranton, PA (1961-1990) Mean Temperature (1961-1990) Snowfall (1960/61 - 1989/90)

Should IAD reach 99 or better today, that would tie July 2012, July 2011, July 1993, and July 1986, for second most 99+ readings in a month. The most is 5, set in July 1988. Looking through the records, the only periods with 3 consecutive days with highs at or above 99 that I could find were July 5-7, 1986 (99, 100, 99); July 8-10, 1993 (100, 99, 99); July 21-23, 2011 (100, 105, 99); and August 11-13, 2021 (99, 100, 99). There do not appear to be any recorded stretches of 4 or more consecutive days at or above 99F, so if it reaches 99F or better today, that would be the first time 4 consecutive days have occurred.

At Burlington, the past 13 years (2010-2022) have averaged almost 4 degrees warmer than the 1961-1990 mean. The coldest year of the past 13 is nearly 2 degrees warmer than the 1961-1990 average. Once 2023 (currently 2nd warmest on record) gets added into the mix, these numbers will go even higher! The 1961-1990 averages were what was considered normal as recently as 2000 and 2001. The last 13, going on 14, years are now warmer than the late 20th century (1961-1990) climate of Albany, New York (mean: 47.5), and approaching that of Scranton, Pennsylvania (mean: 49.1). In just two decades, the climate of Burlington, Vermont has teleported hundreds of miles south and is now on par with a late 20th century climate of southern New York and northeast Pennsylvania. And I'm not playing games by comparing it with mountains at a lower latitude. I'm strictly using low elevation sites for a fair comparison. I mean this is just incredible... the coldest June, August, September, and October of the past 13 years is warmer than the mean from 1961-1990. The coldest July of the past 13 years is just 0.2 degrees below the 1961-1990 mean, while the coldest December is only 0.6F cooler than the 1961-1990 mean. The lying press won't report this. You won't hear the news reporting that temperatures in lower elevations of Vermont are now comparable to what was considered normal in Pennsylvania just a couple decades ago. This is what a climate emergency looks like. Burlington, Vermont (1961-1990) Burlington, Vermont (2010-2022)

Running the same exercise for a place like DuBois, we see the climate there is now equivalent to that of late 20th century Elkins, West Virginia. Again, this is maintaining roughly constant elevation, with DUJ being at 1800' and EKN at 1900'. From 2010-2023, DUJ averaged 50.7F for the January to August time frame. From 1961-1990, EKN averaged 50.7F for the January to August time frame.

I always prefer to look at things in terms of latitude. Over the last 14 years, the January - August period has averaged 56.9F at Harrisburg. That's roughly in between the January - August average for Sterling (Dulles Airport), VA, in suburban Washington, D.C., and Charlottesville, VA, over the 1961-1990 climate period. From 1961-1990, Dulles (IAD) averaged 55.5F, or 1.3F cooler than Harrisburg over the past 14 years, while Charlottesville (CHO) averaged 58.4F, or 1.5F warmer than Harrisburg over the past 14 years. So Harrisburg's climate over the past decade and a half is now roughly equivalent to the late 20th century climate for northern Virginia, bordering on a central Virginian climate (at constant altitude).

Another 90 today officially. Only question is how much, if any, above that we get. 2nd in a row, but only 4th of the calendar year.

4th warmest first eight months at IPT [tied with 1991] 3rd warmest at PHL [tied with 2022 & 2002] 4th warmest first eight months at MPO And 1st place at my favorite locations - DuBois & Bradford *4 of top 9 in last 4 years at DuBois; 4 of top 7 in last 4 years at Bradford* Incredible stuff, can only begin to imagine what 2024 is going to look like if we get a super Nino.

Through August, Harrisburg is just a tenth of a degree below 2012 for hottest first eight months of the year and tied for second place with 2020. At Harrisburg, the 1951-1980 average for January through August was 54.8F, and the 1961-1990 average for January through August was 54.6F. In the last 14 years (2010-2023, inclusive), the January through August timeframe has averaged 56.9F. The mean of the last 14 years would rank as the 18th warmest year in the 135 year threaded record, if it was a single year's data.

BWI also doing quite well in the rankings.

Washington Dulles (IAD) has set three hourly heat records for the month of September, and tied an additional six hourly records during the current hot stretch.

Here's the histogram of hourly heat indices above 100F in the month of September, showing the single observation from 1952, which occurred during the 4 pm hour. Does not appear this will change this week, as heat indices should peak no higher than about 95F.

Some statistics for September heat, dating back to 1945. Here are the highest hourly temperatures at Pittsburgh International Airport (any data prior to 1952 would be from Allegheny County Airport). Unfortunately, there is some bad data. The 4 hourly observations from 1989 are incorrect. Looks like somehow the time of those observations got crossed. The high was 87 that day, and it was in the upper 60s during the morning. Here are the highest heat indices observed in the month of September. There is only one time in which the heat index has exceeded 100F in the month of September. On September 11, 1952, at 4 pm, the heat index reached 101F. That is the only hourly observation of a heat index in excess of 100F at PIT in the month of September. See note above about the 1989 values, which again are incorrect.

Wow! Looks like it's only 0.01C below the anomaly for February 2016, for second highest of any month. Given the global temperature peaks during northern hemisphere summer, I would assume it's safe to say either July or August of this year was easily the highest absolute temperature of any month in the satellite record. Also worth noting that El Nino temperature peaks invariably occur in the first half of the year following the inception of the El Nino event, so we almost certainly will see these values continue to go up. Dr. Spencer may need to raise the y-axis if this keeps up.

Your side of the state has more 90+ days than PIT has had in three years. Tacked on number three for the year today. There have been only 12 90+ degree days over the past three years at PIT (5 in 2021, 4 in 2022, and 3 in 2023).

The high of 97 at York Airport (THV) was the highest reading at that location since July 7, 2012, when it reached 99. The high of 98 at Lancaster Airport (LNS) matches the highest reading at that location since July 7, 2012, when it reached 101. It also reached 98 on June 30, 2021.

Yup, reached 91, which matches July 28th for the highest of the year. Only the third 90+ of the year, although the current forecast has 91 for tomorrow & 90 on Wednesday for the airport. After that, it looks like we may be done for 90s until next year, although you can’t rule out an isolated 90+ even into late September.