TheClimateChanger

Unbelievably heavy rain with these storms.

Saharan dust may be lower than usual, but a fair amount of Canadian smoke pushing south over the Gulf of Mexico and west Atlantic, as depicted on the HRRR and confirmed by satellite.

Interesting satellite imagery this morning. Smoke and haze of various thickness covering much of the territory, with a notable clearing over northwestern sections of Pennsylvania - seemingly adjacent to some of the thickest smoke. A large storm complex with high cloud tops casting a west/southwest shadow over southern Indiana and adjoining parts of Illinois, with a smaller area of storms over central Illinois. Smoke and haze banked up against the Smokies in eastern Tennessee, with an area of clearing along the mountains and immediately east of the mountains, although smoke and haze is filtering into North Carolina from the northeast. The smoke is not facing much resistance from the shorter Pennsylvania ridges, but a significant amount of terrain induced cloud cover can be noted paralleling the ridgetops. And what looks to be a massive burn scar is noted in the upper right hand corner along the border between Ontario and Quebec.

As much as I like to blame climate change, I do wonder if some of this isn't being caused or exacerbated by arsonists and woke firefighting policies.

Not sure if this will come to fruition, but the Canadian smoke forecast model suggests a plume of hazardous air [250 ug/m3 PM2.5 = AQI of ~300] may affect parts of SNE tomorrow night.

I think what is particularly damning is the fact that Chicago O'Hare had 11 100+ days from 1986 to 1995, but only 6 such days since then, despite a rapid warming trend. Even the 1995 heat wave was likely exaggerated by equipment bias, which is one of the reasons Tom Karl cited as evidence there had been no systematic changes in extreme heat wave frequency: The 1995 Chicago Heat Wave on JSTOR And it's the same story in many places. Pittsburgh had 4 100+ days between 1986 and 1995 [2 in 1988, 1 in 1995], but zero since then. In fact, there has never been any other year other than 1988 and 1995 where KPIT [the airport] has reached 100 degrees, or better, dating back to the establishment of the airport in 1952.

Officially, 1988 recorded the most 100+ days in Chicago weather history. But can we really say without a doubt this is a legitimate record, given the overwhelming evidence of bias in the HO-83 from various parts of the country which I cite to in the preceding post? Most likely, at least a few of these 7 days would have been measured in the mid/upper 90s in the absence of the HO-83. For the record, 3 of the 7 days were exactly 100. A bias of even 1F would suggest those days were only 99F, but comparison studies have shown the bias was in excess of 2F on sunny, summertime days. And it's the same case throughout the midwest. Now, one could ask why years from this era don't show up as breaking more records if there was a significant warm bias. But the bias was generally 2F or less overall, except larger during sunny summer days [i.e., the types of days in abundance across the midwest and eastern US during the summer of 1988, and always present in Tuscon, AZ]. The warming that has occurred due to AGW is of much greater magnitude, and so many recent years have set numerous records despite being observed on "cooler" equipment. And I would point out that 1991 does show up as a very warm year in many locations, which may have been somewhat inflated at sites utilizing the HO-83.

I will probably face resistance for pointing this out, since some seem to always assume (without evidence, I might add) that past records were more reliable than modern ones. However, I believe is important to note that the temperature records from this era (roughly mid 1980s to mid 1990s) exhibit a warm bias at most first-order climate stations, due to the widespread use of HO-83 hygrothermometer. Temperature readings from the HO-83 have been shown to exhibit a large warm bias (especially with summertime maxima). ASOS units were installed nationwide in the 1990s, and generally read a couple to, in some cases, several degrees cooler than the HO-83. It is therefore likely that the HO-83 hygrothermometer was at least, in part, responsible for some of the many record high temperatures set in the summer of 1988. In sum, 1988 was certainly an extreme drought - by some measures, the worst nationally since the Dust Bowl. The drought was accompanied by periods of extreme heat, although mean temperatures from that summer have been regularly exceeded in numerous recent years. Some of the records set at first-order sites from that summer are likely unreliable, since the equipment used to measure the temperature exhibited a warming bias of a few to several degrees on sunny summer days, especially in the absence of significant wind. When comparing temperature records, it is important to be aware of potential biases. Based on the evidence, I believe it is highly unlikely that we would have observed as many 100 degree days in 1988 had modern equipment been in place. Sources: Comparison of records from Lincoln, NE, showing a warm bias of around 2F relative to ASOS, but up to 7F on certain days: https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/30286/noaa_30286_DS1.pdf American Meteorological Society Journal article, highlighting warm bias in Albany, NY (1.2C error on sunny July days): Recent Maximum Temperature Anomalies at Albany, New York: Fact or Fiction? in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 74 Issue 2 (1993) (ametsoc.org) 1991 New York Times article detailing how the HO-83 produced dozens of phantom record high temperatures in Tuscon, AZ: In Tucson, It's Not the Heat, It's the Thermometers - The New York Times (nytimes.com) Steve McIntyre and Anthony Watts discussion of the problem from 2008: Inside the HO83 Hygrothermometer « Climate Audit Steve McIntyre discussion from 2007, with numerous citations: The HO-83 Hygro- thermometer « Climate Audit

Meanwhile, "unbelievably blue" skies were reported over Boalsburg, Pennsylvania on Sunday, but did not receive any media coverage, much to the chagrin of one well-known meteorologist.

As I projected on Friday, one of the most impactful intrusions of wildfire smoke is ongoing over the Midwest and Great Lakes, with visibilities locally reduced to less than one mile, and widespread unhealthy (or worse) air quality. At the same time, higher altitude smoke from the Canadian firestorms has crossed the Atlantic and is blocking out the sun over Portugal.

Lots of filthy air upstream slowly advecting into western Pennsylvania in the northwest flow.

Will the Canadian firestorms produce a hemispheric cooling effect? This is just crazy at this point.

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-291700- Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln- Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano- Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago- Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County- Southern Oconto County- Including the cities of Eagle River, Lac Du Flambeau, Rhinelander, Crandon, Aurora, Commonwealth, Spread Eagle, Niagara, Wausaukee, Merrill, Tomahawk, Antigo, Keshena, Neopit, Mountain, Lakewood, Townsend, Sturgeon Bay, Fish Creek, Sister Bay, Wausau, Shawano, Marshfield, Wisconsin Rapids, Stevens Point, Plover, New London, Waupaca, Clintonville, Appleton, Green Bay, Kewaunee, Luxemburg, Redgranite, Wautoma, Oshkosh, Neenah, Menasha, Chilton, Brillion, New Holstein, Manitowoc, Two Rivers, Harmony, Peshtigo, Porterfield, Crivitz, High Falls Reservoir, Loomis, Middle Inlet, Little Suamico, Sobieski, Brookside, Oconto, and Pensaukee 659 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 ...AIR QUALITY ADVISORY ISSUED FOR ALL OF WISCONSIN... The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources has issued an Air Quality Advisory for PM2.5 which will remain in effect until noon Thursday, June 29th. This advisory affects the full state of Wisconsin. Smoke originating from Canadian wildfires will spread from north-to-south today (Monday, June 26th), impacting PM2.5 concentrations at the surface. We expect this situation to remain highly dynamic over the coming days and will adjust messaging as needed. For today (Monday, June 26th), we expect the heaviest smoke impacts across the eastern half of the state, where the Air Quality Index (AQI) is expected to be within the UNHEALTHY category but could reach the VERY UNHEALTHY category. People with heart or lung disease, older adults, and children should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion and consider avoiding all physical outdoor activities; everyone else should reduce prolonged or heavy exertion and consider avoiding prolonged or heavy exertion. At this time, we anticipate the eastern half of the state to see the heaviest surface smoke through this episode, with noon Tuesday through noon Wednesday currently appearing to be the period of heaviest impact. The AQI will likely range from the UNHEALTHY to VERY UNHEALTHY categories, but we cannot rule out the possibility of the AQI reaching the HAZARDOUS category. For more information on current air quality, please see: https://airquality.wi.gov

Very poor air quality from Burlington to Montreal, ranging from unhealthy to downright hazardous. Might be a good idea to limit outdoor activity until this passes, or at least use an N95 mask if outside.

The Canadian smoke forecast has a large area of PM2.5 exceeding 250 micrograms per cubic meter of air.

Tuesday still looking like there may be poor air quality for much of the Midwest.

Looking at this animation of aerosol optical depth, it looks like some of this might end up getting caught in the circulation of the low pressure system moving through and ultimately advect southwestward over Wisconsin and Ilinois by Tuesday. Obviously a long way out, but perhaps something to watch out for next week. Also, it's not clear how dense the concentrations of smoke will be as a lot of it will get pushed eastward out to sea before the low starts to take shape. https://twitter.com/m_parrington/status/1672232383842492419?s=20

Here was an interesting comparison shared by @BAMWX on Twitter. Worse than 2012, but not quite to 1988 levels.

Where is this massive pall of dense surface smoke expected to travel?

Visible satellite shows the light haze over the Midwest, as well as the suffocating, dense pall of smoke over eastern Canada. Will be interesting to see where this goes. Intense fire behavior is expected over the next couple of afternoons, which will result in additional large emissions of smoke and possible pyrocumulus and pyrocumulonimbus activity. Can also see some of the smoke plumes in western Ontario which are expected to spread smoke into the Upper Midwest later today and into the weekend.

As expected, saw some light smoke and haze in northern Michigan yesterday, which worked its way over to parts Wisconsin and Illinois overnight. Nothing too crazy, but visibilities have been reduced to 4-6 miles, with less than ideal air quality. The HRRR is indicating the potential for a couple more impactful intrusions of Canadian wildfire smoke. Some denser plumes of smoke are expected to work into northern Minnesota and the upper peninsula of Michigan, and perhaps get drawn south around the circulation of an area of low pressure into the Dakotas and possibly parts of Nebraska and Iowa by Sunday. At the same time, a MASSIVE pall of dense surface smoke is forecast to spread across much of Ontario and Quebec. This makes NYC's smokemageddon look weak. Not sure where this smoke pall will travel, but places in the Great Lakes and northeastern US should keep an eye on its path.

Is he trustworthy? I see some of these "agwx" gurus on Twitter, and they can be quite cocky. At least BamWx acknowledged their forecasted pattern change didn't materialize, but DT is like the left-wing Q-anon with rain always two weeks away. He's been going on about widespread rains in the Cornbelt in two weeks seemingly for a month now.

No doubt 1936 was hot in the center of the country, but when you are dealing with fractions of a degree, every location matters. I feel like these old years should have error bars attached to them. It's bizarre how the Weather Bureau sites tend not to show these early years to be as hot as the random co-op sites, which makes no sense since the Weather Bureau was collecting temperatures on rooftops in dense urban areas. I do not believe 1936 is as hot as implied by the ranking. There are numerous biases that are not being adequately corrected in the instrumental record, with many locations showing temperature anomalies that differ considerably from the division/county averages. I understand that these are averages of multiple sites, but these are still concerning discrepancies. While 2021 officially edged out [or statistically tied with] 1936 for hottest summer, it wouldn't surprise if 1936 was actually cooler than 2022, 2021, 2020, 2018, 2016, 2012, 2011, and 2006, all of which were within about 1/2 of a degree. And JB's argument that it was hotter in 1936 on a population-weighted average makes zero sense. The core of the heat that summer was in Montana, the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Iowa, with not as hot to cool anomalies in the more densely populated Great Lakes, as well as the East and West Coasts. Texas, too, wasn't that hot overall. It looks like it would perform very poorly on a population-weighted average compared to recent years where the densely populated Coastal Regions were the ones scorching. One other thing to consider in comparing years is humidity and apparent temperatures. Humidity was exceptionally low during the Summer of 1936, so apparent temperatures during the worst of the heat were likely a few to several degrees cooler than actual temperatures. This has not been the case during recent scorching summers. If it was indeed the hottest summer on record up until 2021, then it was a heck of a way to run the hottest summer on record for many locations in the eastern US, with very cool overnight minima and generally not excessively hot daytime maxima outside of an 8-day stretch in July and a scattering of dates in August. June, in particular, was quite mild, as well as the majority of July, besides the extreme heat wave.

There are so many weird anomalies with 1936. It really wasn't that warm of a summer from Chicago/Milwaukee on east. There was an extreme 8-day heat wave in early to mid July, outside of that it was mostly cooler than modern normals. Especially with respect to overnight minima. As far as minima, it was a summer of yesteryear. In Milwaukee, the mean July maximum temperature of 82.5F is tied with two other years for 27th warmest on record. Yet the southeast Wisconsin divisional ranking shows a mean maximum temperature of 90.2F for the division, or 7.6F warmer than the 1901-2000 average, for third warmest on record. For the summer as a whole in Milwaukee, the mean temperature was 69.9F, or a rather pedestrian 49th of 152 years. For the state, however, NCEI has the summer as 17th warmest on record, as it does for District 9 [SE Wisconsin]. And yes, there was a site change. But the downtown city office was actually WARMER than the current airport location, and so the site change actually results in a warming bias. Looking at Hagerstown, Maryland area for July 1936, we see a mean temperature of 73.8F, nearly 4F below the modern normal. Yet the NCEI county mapping has Washington County, Maryland as 1.4F above normal. Outside of the aforementioned 8-day heat wave, this is legitimate summer of yesteryear stuff for that part of Maryland. And well supported by the observations taken in Baltimore and Washington, DC. (see below). Here is the observations from the Brookville FAA Airport site in Jefferson County, Pennsylvania in July 1936. The mean low temperature was 49.6F, and the mean temperature was 67.7F. These are already summer of yesteryear numbers. Excluding the midmonth heat wave, it was downright frigid that month. Note that these are uncorrected for time of observation bias. By comparison, here are the coldest monthly average low temperatures observed at the current Jefferson County Airport (several hundred feet higher in elevation than the Brookville site): And the coldest mean temperatures: Here's the records from the cooperative observer in New Castle, PA, with comparison to modern mean. And these are uncorrected for time of observation bias, which partially explains why the maximum temperatures are so high: Lows of 36F on July 30th and 31st, at New Cumberland Locks and Dam on the Ohio River in northern West Virginia: Wheeling, WV - July 1936 is 6th lowest mean minimum temperature in station thread history: Morgantown, WV - July 1936 is 4th lowest mean minimum temperature in station thread history: Overall, at Morgantown, it was 72.8F in July 1936, or 1.3F below the modern average. This is 51st coolest [out of 140 years of records]. NCEI has Monongalia County at 72.6F for a countywide average. This makes zero sense. Morgantown is obviously the warmest spot in the county, and this 72.8F reading is uncorrected for time of observations. Most of eastern Monongalia County is 2000' plus ridges - how is the countywide average so high? It also turns a cool anomaly into a warm anomaly, making it 48th warmest [out of 128 years].