TheClimateChanger

Actually, the new scale is a bit colder for very light winds (>5 mph) and probably inflates the value to be honest. A wind of 4 or 5 mph at 10 meters is probably dead calm at ground level. It was only at winds greater 10 mph, and especially 20-30 mph, that the old scale really went off the rails. It does look like there were winds around 10-15 mph earlier in the night, with temps in the mid negative 30s, so peak wind chills on the old scale probably would have been like -80, maybe -85. Heres a good comparison: https://www.adirondackdailyenterprise.com/opinion/columns/safety-on-the-roads-by-dave-werner/2016/12/wind-chill-values-revised-in-2001/ You can see at -40 with 5 mph winds, under the old scale the chill would be -47 whereas it’s -57 under the new scale. The old was actually probably somewhat more realistic under light wind conditions. You can also see under the old scale, at -40, you would still need sustained winds of about 22 or 23 mph to reach around -100F chills.

I think it's also important to note that @michsnowfreakisn't being fully forthcoming with just how bad it's been. The 5.0" observed to date is the 13th lowest (of 151 years) in the threaded historical record. Also, it's reasonable to suspect that it was somewhat inflated relative to the earlier years when they didn't use snowboards and measuring at intervals throughout the storm. I believe NCAR has found as much as 15-20 percent inflation from summing 6-hourly max accumulations measured on a snowboard relative to total depth. Regardless, this is pretty bad. 5th lowest of 66 years, since official records moved to DTW. And last winter was mostly luck for Detroit that snowfall wasn't only moderately below the normal. If we take a short jog down I-75, we find Toledo had its 4th least seasonal snowfall (of 127 years).

Well, I'll grant you 2006-07, 2011-12 & 2015-16 were generally milder winters for much of the region. 2009-10 was very snowy for most, however. As far as questioning the validity, I'm just going by the complaints of the locals from that era. Truthfully, I didn't put much stock in their complaints since I assumed they were just denying reality.

If I recall correctly, there was a lot of conversation here about the quality of the observations at Toronto during that era. Most locals said it was way underdone. That was probably one of the snowiest stretches on record for the Great Lakes region, so I wouldn't place too much stock in those numbers. The 20.6" for the winter of 2009-10 is particularly suspect and out of line with surroundings. There was 48" at Pittsburgh in February 2010 alone.

Nonsense. Historically, some of the biggest snowstorms on record have occurred in April. The biggest snowstorm on record in Detroit occurred in April.

If these streaks can just make it through this winter, we can really put up some impressive numbers.

Highest 2-day total since February 2010 is 10.7 inches, on December 16-17, 2020. March 20-21, 2018 saw 10.5 inches at the airport. Highest 3-day total is 11.0 inches, from December 16-18, 2020.

Also been since February 6, 2010, since we have had 10" or better in a calendar day. The February 5-6, 2010 storm ended the longest streak of no double digit daily snowfall, or we'd really be in uncharted territory on that metric.

I guess it was just bad luck that it didn't fall during the 2010 storm. Straddled two days.

We are so overdo for a 12"+ calendar day, it's not even funny. I'm not sure this streak will ever end. Might be permanent.

Currently, it's been 668 days since a 6"+ calendar day snowfall at PIT, which is only 35th longest. Of course, if we don't see any 6" calendar days this winter, we will quickly climb the ranks. As an aside, it's also been that long since 3" has been observed in a calendar day [good for 4th longest streak]. The last 3" or better calendar day being 3/12/2022, when 8.0" was observed - part of a 2-day total of 9.7".

6-inch calendar day snowfalls have been atrocious lately. There was a 2,584 day gap that ended with a fluke 8.7" on March 21, 2018 [2-day total of 10.5"], which was promptly followed by another 985-day gap which ended with 6.8" on December 1, 2020. If not for that fluke storm [which had a lot of uncertainty, and was expected to be under 6"], we would have shattered #1 there.

Interesting. Fifth longest streak without a 2" snowfall - now at 353 days and counting.

Yeah, I just confirmed that 1918-1919 is the only winter without a calendar day snowfall of 1" or greater at DAY. The maximum was 0.6" on a couple of occasions. Of course, this was when observations were still downtown, which is a couple/few hundred feet lower in elevation than the more suburban airport site. Also, snow measuring techniques were different than today [no snowboard/clearing]. Regardless, a top 4 streak looks to be a near certainty.

Interesting. 5th longest streak on record, and longest since the official records have been taken at DAY airport (see below). Looks like it should move into 4th place for sure, maybe third. It would probably be difficult to get another two weeks without 1"+ snowfall on a calendar day to move into second place with the current pattern. Some missing data for the early years, especially the #1 streak, so it might be inflated. But I think that's just some summer months where snowfall wasn't reported and the algorithm interprets that as missing data - but there could be some missing winter data in there as well.

1.29” of precipitation reported on my weather station so far today.

Looks like some of the worst winds are in Westmoreland County. Latrobe (Arnold Palmer Airport) is reporting wind gusts to 68 mph: National Weather Service : Observed Weather for past 3 Days : Arnold Palmer Regional Airport

I just hope southeast Michigan gets missed. After cheating their way to a natty, they don't deserve any snowfall this winter.

Weird how Midway has had more than Rockford. Doesn't seem possible.

Interesting. The Weather Channel has this for Monday: Watching a potential winter storm. Variably cloudy with snow showers. High around 25F. Winds WSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%. Snowfall around one inch. Variably cloudy with snow showers. Low 14F. Winds W at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected. I will say I find more often that not that when they include that "Watching a potential winter storm" language, it means we get to watch a winter storm go somewhere else other than Pittsburgh.

From Hansen's newsletter: It is possible to shut off this amplifying feedback by cooling the planet, but that can happen only if we reduce the present enormous geoengineering of the planet. This will require purposeful actions to cool the planet, in addition to phasing down greenhouse gas emissions as rapidly as practical. Fortunately, there are young people who are beginning to grasp the situation that they are being handed by older generations. We will write a paper in cooperation with enlightened young people from Finland,[7] Eric Rignot, and several other people discussing this situation. We intend to complete the paper this coming spring, by which time we expect to have additional data that test our interpretation of ongoing global change.

Wow, came in fast. PIT has had 2/3 of an inch of precipitation already in three hours.

Can't argue with you there. And, my bad, I think the small discrepancy in amounts may have simply been you using calendar years. When I want a mean of a series, I'll often just throw it in NowData which does the math automatically, but it defaults to winter season [water year] for snowfall amounts, rather than calendar year.

One correction: I believe you are beginning in 2010-2011 [and presumably not counting this winter, which is still early on], that it 13 seasons through 2022-2023. Also, the mean, according to NowData, at DCA is 10.4" not 10.6" over that interval. That's an interesting thought though. If we look at Greensboro, the 1951-1980 and 1961-1990 mean were 10.3 inches. The mean from 2011-2023 is down to 7.0 inches. At Richmond, the 1951-1980 mean was 16.1 inches, and it bumped up to 16.4 inches in 1961-1990. The last 13 seasons, the mean is down to 8.6 inches. At DCA, the 1951-1980 mean was 17.9 inches, which increased to 18.5 inches in 1961-1990. As noted, per NowData, the mean of the past 13 years is just 10.4 inches. I like to do comparisons of 2010-present to the mid and late 20th century normals, because it seems like 2010 was when things really went south. And the 1951-1980/1961-1990 normals give a useful comparison as those were the normals in place when Millenials and younger GenX were youths.