TheClimateChanger

Interestingly, there were 5 years in the first 48 years of record in which the first 80F did not occur until July. This implies a historical odds of such an event being a bit more common than 1 in every 10 years. The latest first 80F reading at Toronto is July 16, 1851, when the mercury climbed to 82F.

Not too uncommon. These are all the years at downtown Toronto in which the first reading of 75F occurred on or after today's date (May 20). The temperature shown is the temperature on the date of the first 75F+ reading. Particularly in the 19th century, it was fairly common for the first 75F reading to hold off until June. The latest first 75F+ reading occurred on June 26, 1851, when the mercury climbed to 78F.

If you look at a place like Oklahoma City, the comparison is even starker. Fully 32 years, almost all from prior to the 21st century, were as cool or cooler than Morgantown in 2024 for the period from January 1 through May 19. And 45 years, no more than 0.5F warmer. So at those levels, 2024 in Morgantown has seen temperatures that would have been expected about once every three years historically in OKC, and nearly every other year if you include years within 1/2 degree Fahrenheit.

It will be interesting to see if we can sustain this. At Morgantown, the mean temperature so far this year has been 48.5F. If you look at a place like Raleigh-Durham, NC, you can see 13 years were as cool or cooler, and 21 years within 0.5F of that figure, clustered generally within a 100-year period. Temperatures that low no longer occur in Raleigh-Durham, so including the full nearly 140 years of data would produce a incidence far below what the historical incidence. You can see that when the airport opened in that time frame from the late 1950s through 1980s, temperatures as low or lower than 2024 in Morgantown would have occurred about 1 in 4 years. Even Greenville-Spartanburg, South Carolina has had 10 years as cool or cooler. While there's nearly 130 years of record, they were all clustered in the first 80 or so years of the POR, implying a historical incidence of about 1 in 8 years. While still below the median, you can see temperatures like those at Morgantown so far this year were still fairly common in the 20th century in the Carolinas. Definitely within the envelope of a normal 20th century climate of the Carolinas, and about normal for 20th century Oklahoma City [albeit with cooler highs & warmer lows - less continentality].

I think all the Canadian wildfire smoke screwed us in May and June last year. Even when it wasn't noticeable on the surface, there was almost always some concentration in the atmosphere. The next strong El Nino should be interesting.

7th warmest May on record to date at Dayton, with very warm weather forecast over the next week or so. Plenty of room to climb on this list. Still solidly in first place on the year to date, more than a degree warmer than 2012.

Weird. We paid just under 400k in 2018, and ours is $10k a year between city, county and school.

Wow, more affordable than I would have thought. Our property taxes alone dwarf that.

Well we managed three below normal days (officially). I don’t really see many opportunities for below normal temps over the next 7-10 days. Looks well above normal through Wednesday, and then cooler but likely still above normal late next week into the start of the holiday weekend.

https://twitter.com/nwspittsburgh/status/1791577628924912053?s=46

Interesting. NOAA says heightened odds of warmer than normal temperatures this summer, but the Almanac says cool and dry. Kinda weird how Erie is hot and wet, but SW PA is cool and dry.

Wrong. CXY had a mean of 58.1F last year.

Looks like relative to CXY, those values are warmer through 2016 and then recent years are the same or slightly less, which would have the effect of decreasing the trend over that period. Either way, the bigger concern is NOAA indicates Harrisburg saw a 58.1F annual mean temperature last year. That's warmer than the historical annual mean temperature of Richmond, Virginia, and within a couple of degrees of places like Charlotte and Raleigh in North Carolina.

How does moving the station around to a cooler location and "threading" them together amplify warming?

Looks like those are based primarily off CXY, which makes sense since it used to be the official station in Harrisburg. MDT is about a degree or so cooler. It's a trick NOAA does to hide the warming. Repeatedly switch the "official" station to ever cooler locations to mask some of the warming trend. From a downtown windowsill to a downtown rooftop to an urban airport on the outskirts of town and then to a much larger airport in a rural-suburban area either surrounded by water or at a higher elevation, and then thread them all together! Also to hide even more warming switch the data source from a warmer LiG thermometer housed in CRS to an automated weather station (MMTS/ASOS). And then have trolls complain about any adjustments that are made.

Not bad, but 2012 saw a much warmer spring in most locations. Data below are for the period 3/1 to 5/15. Second warmest in most places in the southern parts of the subforum [1977 was warmer at ORD & DSM], but not as warm in the north. Only 12th mildest at MSP. MKE ORD DSM DTW TOL IND CMH CLE MSP

It sounds like Dr. Hansen believes this is the peak of this El Niño cycle. Although it’s not all good news, as he also thinks we have surpassed 1.5C for all practical purposes.

They must be manipulating the raw data out of the MDT ASOS because almost every recent year has been record warm.

Through May 15, the mean temperature at Harrisburg International Airport (MDT) is currently 45.8F, good for 4th warmest YTD in the threaded records behind 2023, 1998 & 2012. Turning to the top 10 for the full year, 2021 is number one, followed by 2023 and 2020. To date, MDT is running 1.7F warmer than 2021, 1.3F warmer than 2020 and 0.8F cooler than 2023. Could make a run for warmest year on record this year (dating to 1889).

Man, this guy has no shame. Imagine claiming the state record for 95+ days is in a small town nestled in the northern Pennsylvania mountains. Not Philadelphia or one of the surrounding lower elevation sites, but a tiny, tiny hamlet at 1400' surrounded by 2000'+ ridges. Let's take a look at this data from 1927. For comparison, here is downtown Pittsburgh for the same month. Ridgway is typically 4 or 5 degrees cooler than Pittsburgh [particularly downtown]. It's not an exaggeration to say these high temperatures [which are quite obviously taken from an instrument that would have been exposed to direct sunlight] are 15-20 degrees too high. Actually, anyone with half a brain should be able to see it's actually proof of just how much it's warmed since then. 1927 - despite absurdly unrepresentative summertime high temperatures which are clearly 15-20 degrees too high most days - is only about a degree or so warmer than many recent years on the annual mean! And that is without any of the much-maligned adjustments for Time of Observation [was 5:30 p.m. in 1927] or change in instrumentation [MMTS].

Well May hasn't been too remarkable, but with about two weeks left, we are currently in second place for warmest springs in the threaded Pittsburgh area record. Coming off the heels of the fourth warmest winter.

The NWS has also quietly changed the frost and freeze criteria. All of those frost and freeze advisories and warnings that were near constant through April [and have been common in recent years] would NOT have been issued in past decades because the growing season was not considered to have begun by that point in these areas. A lot of NWS offices now just use the amorphous phrase "during the growing season" but there is still some residual evidence of the traditional criteria. You see all the frost and freeze warnings, and think "wow, it must be cold this spring. Never seen so many frost warnings." BUT that's because these events would have all been unwarned in the past. Here's the traditional criteria for some NWS offices: CTP The traditional growing season [and issuance of frost/freeze products] does not start until May 21 in the northwest mountains and would have just begun May 11 in the second tier of counties. There were numerous frost/freeze products issued in April in these areas. IWX Source: Northern Indiana Watch, Warning and Advisory Criteria (weather.gov) Note - issued only between May 1 and October 20, yet these products were issued numerous times by IWX this April.