TheClimateChanger

I think it factors in climo. Point-click centered on Bradford Regional Airport in north central Pennsylvania has 92, 95, 95, 93 and 91 next week. Since records began in 1957, there have only been 2 June days there in the 90s: 90 on 6/16/2022, and 93 on 6/22/2022. The all-time record is 97F on 7/16/1988 and 7/21/2011. And only one year saw more than 4 90+ readings: 1988, with 8.

Centered on the airport has 92, 95, 95, 93, and 91 Monday through Friday. There have only been two days in the 90s in June since records began at the airport in 1957: 90 on 6/16/2022 and 93 on 6/22/2022. The all-time record is 97F on 7/16/1988 and 7/21/2011. Only one year has had more than 4 90+ days: 1988, with 8. So if that comes to fruition, you would have more 90s than any entire year on record except for 1988, and 5 days in a row with temperatures that are either warmest or second warmest of any prior June day. Other than the fluke 93F in 2022, no other June exceeded 89F.

Wtae does have a 97 for next Saturday, but that’s really far out. Anyways, getting a decent thundershower here. No wind, but moderate rain and some thunder & lightning.

Interesting little random patch of fog on southern Lake Michigan.

The weather algorithm must have broke.

Stick a fork in it, people.

Worried about flash drought too, depending on how much rain falls today. I’ve only received about a quarter of an inch this month, and the airport is just over a third of an inch. CPC didn’t include western Pennsylvania in the flash drought outlook, presumably because it’s been one of the wettest starts to the year. But given the lack of rainfall recently and the prospective heat wave and continued lack of rainfall, they probably could have.

Looks like flash drought potential for the Ohio Valley, including parts of the eastern Corn Belt, and Mid Atlantic.

The first 90F of the year at Detroit. Current forecast has 90s Monday through at least Thursday (see below). If it can get to 7 90+ days by the 22nd, that would be pretty elite territory. Only 3 years have had more than 7 90+ days by June 22 at Detroit, and it's some impressive company [1934, 1988, and 1994]. Sunday Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Highs in the mid 80s. Sunday Night Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Monday Warmer. Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 90s. Heat index readings in the upper 90s. Monday Night Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. Tuesday Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 90s. Heat index readings in the upper 90s. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. Juneteenth Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 90s. Heat index readings in the upper 90s. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. Thursday Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 90s.

Also true, although the latter half of June kind of bucks that overall trend with the majority being observed at the airport - mostly 1994 and 1988 (including 2 of the dates when 98F was reached).

True to an extent, but at least in June, the daily records there are only 2 or 3F warmer on most days. The all-time record is 100F (last set in 1966), and the highest hourly heat index is 112F. That's also at the airport, which is only about 300 feet above sea level. So anyone living in a more elevated location of south central Pennsylvania can probably shave 2-4F off those readings.

I guess it depends on your definition of insanity. Considering the all-time record June temperature in Pittsburgh (since 1874) is 98F, and the highest hourly heat index in the month of June (since 1942) is 106F, the latter would definitely qualify as insanely hot in Pittsburgh. I'd have to say mid 90s is probably the threshold for June. That would get you near the daily record on all but a handful of days in the month.

It's happening, Tip. Buckle in.

The map on the left is not a believable presentation. It's almost never 3F hotter in Wheeling and Pittsburgh than Columbus and Dayton in this weather pattern - let alone 2F hotter than Charleston. And several degrees hotter than Baltimore, Washington and Philly in the coastal plain.

The European temperature forecasts in hot summer patterns always seem to be off for this part of the country. Always has a very " warm wintertime" pattern with hot air funneling up the Ohio Valley bringing in temperatures across western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia which are hotter than places to the west. This is a common temperature pattern in the winter, but almost never happens in the summer. Realistically, to get upper 90s in southwest Pennsylvania, you would want to see low 100s across western/central Ohio and Indiana. Not cooler temperatures in the lower to mid 90s.

Yeah, I'm going to take the under there. I have to doubt we have daily record highs on 4 of 5 days next week, break the monthly record high, tie the old monthly record high on another day, and have a third day within 1F of the monthly record - all within a 5-day stretch.

Yes, it would be fairly unusual if the heat pans out. For sh*ts and giggles, I ran out the Accuweather forecast temperatures for Pittsburgh International and came up with a mean of 72.9F. It looked like it was returning more downtown Pittsburgh than the airport, so I re-ran using the forecast for Carnot-Moon and came up with a mean of 72.3F. The NWS point-click forecast centered on PIT would get us to 69.8F by the 18th, which matches what Accuweather shows for Carnot-Moon. Neither of these values are close to the record in the threaded history, but the warmest June at PIT is 1967 with a mean of 73.0F, followed by 72.9F in 1994, 72.6F in 1991, and 72.3F in 1996. June is one month that hasn't had a lot of top tier warmth in recent years. If the Accuweather forecast were to verify, it would be the warmest in about 30 years. Wouldn't normally put too much stock in it, but it tracks the NWS forecast for the next week. And CPC has us in a ridiculous 80-90% chance of above normal in the 8-14 day period (June 19th through 25th). That's about as high as they ever go.

For Detroit, the highest hourly heat index on record back to 1942 for the month of June is 109F on June 28, 2012. So I'm going to have to take the under there.

I saw a post on Reddit saying the weather hasn't felt like summer in Pittsburgh. Of course, this is patently absurd. It's June 10th, and the first 9 days of June have been 2.2F above normal. It's even more ridiculous when you consider fully 12 ENTIRE summers (JJA) were cooler than the first 9 days of June this year [by far, the coldest part of meteorological summer historically]. 11 of them in the 35 years between 1958 & 1992 (inclusive). So historically at the airport in the late 20th century, roughly 1 in 3 ENTIRE summers were cooler than than the first 9 days of June. Fully 19 summers have been within 0.4F of the first 9 days of June. Some people have a really warped sense of what "normal" is. Even by mean maximum temperatures, there have been several cooler summers and fully 14 that were no more than 0.4F warmer of the first 9 days of June this year. While certainly it would be a cool summer if this happened, historically it would be far from unprecedented for these conditions to persist for an entire summer [including second half of June, all of July and August].

I think it's just a matter of time before we have a record breaking summer, maybe this will be the year? Here's the top 10 by warmest mean temperature. The 19th century data doesn't really jive with the limited data out there from other locations in the region (even considering the change in location). In more recent times from the airport location, 1995 is 5th warmest and 2016 is 8th warmest. Unlike a lot of locations, more recent decades have done somewhat better with average maximum temperature [suggesting some of the early warmth is driven by warm lows]. On this list, 1995 is 2nd; 1988 is 4th; and 1991 is 6th. I do find it a little suspect that in the small era of the defective HO-83 hygrothermometer (mid 1980s to 1995), so many warm maximum temperatures were observed (1987, 1988, 1991, 1993-1995). Regardless, in this era, where lows don't drop and even cold snaps can barely drop below normal, imagine if a 1988 or 1995 type pattern were to set up. Anyways, enjoy the next couple of days. Looks like we might throw up some rare -8 or larger departures.

What's crazy is I thought for sure at midmonth, we'd be below normal. But looking at the current departure plus the forecast through the 15th, it now looks like we'll be slightly warmer than normal, even before the heat returns.

In any case, looks like June will finish above normal. I believe that will make twelve consecutive months.