TheClimateChanger

This is from the Iowa Mesonet automated data plotter.

Dewpoint of 40F at Midway, which is just 4F above the lowest noon local time dewpoint of record on the 6th of June, dating back to 1948. The monthly record low dewpoint in that time period is 17F, from June 10, 1972:

This is why the change in wet bulb temperature is probably a better measure of the added heat stress from climate change. Dry bulb temperatures have risen, but so have dewpoints. So wet bulb temperature readings would capture both that elevated dry bulb temperature and added absolute humidity.

It is kind of comical that an annual mean temperature that just 30-ish years ago was so astoundingly high that the NWS thought the thermometer was defective is routinely met or exceeded every single year. There's the 1990 & 1991 heat wave on there. While reported as tying the record, 1991 was actually 0.1F cooler than 1931.

Dude, it's so much hotter today than the 19th century, that we could literally delete the entire summer and just transition from spring to fall and the annual mean would still be in the ballpark of the mean for the entire year from that era. Look, here's Boston. 2024 is already warmer than 1888, 1904, and 1875. We could leap straight from early June to late September, skipping over almost the entirety of June, July, August, and September, and still beat some of those years. Boston is actually a very bad example, because it's been cooler. Look at Atlanta. No June 5-30, July, August, September, or October factored in, and 2024 is already warmer than or as warm as 76 full years! January & February are warmer than November and December. December is roughly between February and March means, November between March & April, October between April & May, June through September hotter than any of the first five months. Without even factoring in June 5 through October, the hottest part of the year in South Florida, Miami's mean for 2024 to date would already place as 48th warmest on record - matching or exceeding 81 full years. Tl;dr: To get to some of the coldest 19th / early-mid 20th century means, we would need to forgo the entire summer and just leap from May into October.

Yes, I suspect it finishes somewhat above on the whole. I've read from several sources I trust that the second half of June should be fairly hot.

You'd think the Midwest summertime climate change hole would show up in the data for Des Moines. I'm seeing a nearly 8F/century rise since 2001, and a 2.9F/century rise over the past 50 years. Wait until you guys get a load of the Td increases over that same time! Wet bulb temperatures are probably rising at twice the rate of the dry bulb readings.

I will grant him that the temperatures from that era were inflated, but not because of asphalt or dirt. The HO-83 hygrothermometer was defective and produced spuriously warm temperatures.

Here's another good one from January 1, 1992. "The thermometer may have been placed at times over asphalt or dirt, rather than over grass as it is supposed to be." Meanwhile, the old records were taken on asphalt rooftops. Make it make sense. I wonder what Mr. Hendricksen's excuse would be today, when pretty much every year is as hot or hotter than 1991.

Gotta love these oldies, but goodies. Like this passage from the Globe in 1991. You know who was right? Dr. Hansen. Pinatubo did drop global temperatures in 1992 & 1993, and then did rebound to record breaking levels in the 1990s. You know who was wrong? The so-called state climatologist.

Just because we're not getting gigantic heat blobs doesn't mean it's not warming at an alarming clip. I responded to "you know who" who was going on about adjustments to the NCEI numbers for Harrisburg, PA. I noticed immediately his alleged adjustments actually cool the recent summertime warming trend. So I pulled up the data for MDT and CXY airports... Since 2001, MDT is warming at +10.4F/century in the summertime; CXY Airport is warming at +17.2F/century in the summertime. This isn't even a cherrypicked start period. There were a lot of warm summers in the early years of this century. 2001 was hot - I remember Korey Stringer passing away at Vikings practice from the heat. 2002 was a ridiculous scorcher, as was 2005. 2006 was mostly hot. I think it reached 121F in South Dakota and was basically a statistical tie with 1936. And if you believe the people on this forum, recent summers haven't been too bad. I realize it's too short of a timeframe to really draw any significant conclusions, but wow. It's like we're boiling frogs. Maybe it's not reaching 120F every summer, but quietly this century, every location is heating up in the summertime and heating up quickly.

1936 is mostly a paper tiger. Doesn't stand up to scrutiny. Would be considered a summer of yesteryear if it happened today by the same people minimizing recent summertime heat. Ice was present on the east end of Lake Erie until the end of May. June was cold as hell compared to recent years. July was fairly typical, but generally cooler than recent years. A formidable heat wave struck from July 8 - July 14, which is included in the July numbers and brings the month up to close to current norms. However, humidity was exceptionally low with dew points commonly in the 40s and 50s, even as air temperatures climbed well into the 90s and 100s. Every recent summer has seen more deadly heat indices/wetbulb readings. Excluding the 7-day stretch, July was way cooler than recent years for the other 24 days. August was a little bit above current norms, but nothing crazy. Even in Des Moines, Iowa, where it was the hottest July on record, the humidity was unbelievably low. In fact, if you check on the Iowa Mesonet, they have data back to 1936. It was the driest July and summer on record, by mean dew point. All record heat indices [basically an analog for wet bulb reading] have been set in recent decades, including the highest on record just last summer [the one higher reading from 1936 appears to be erroneous]. Look at your local observations from that summer. You'll be surprised. This was pretty much the case everywhere from the east coast to Michigan, but even on the west shore of Lake Michigan at Chicago and Milwaukee. Some how they say this is the hottest summer on record, but its way cooler than all recent summers. Go figure.

But their adjustments have lowered the trend over that period? Looks like they've failed miserably.

It gets even crazier when look at Capital City Airport (CXY) which used to be the official reporting station. Summertime warming trend this century is an astounding +17.2F per century. Absolutely bonkers.

Confirmed. NCEI's adjustments have lowered the raw data trend of +10.4F/century so far in the 21st century down to +7.6F/century. Why are they trying to hide the warming trend? @ChescoWx

Interesting. Looks like they reduced the recent warming trend by generally warming the past more?

Not too bad out there today. Thought it would feel hotter, but the humidity is on the lower side.

I know there's been a lot of discussion here about cicadas, but this is fascinating stuff. Due to climate change, they are having increasing difficulty in counting time between hatchings. I think in the future, it may be less predictable when they arrive. Cicadas are back, but climate change is messing with their body clocks - CBS News

I think in the future we may have better chances of seeing drier heat episodes with excessive temperatures. When I look at a map, I look at that massive continental expanse called Canada. And I just think - geez, in this hothouse earth, that should be a blazing inferno in the summertime. I think it's only thermal inertia keeping things relatively in check. I do wonder if, in the future, we will see massive heat ridges forming over the Northern Plains and Canada and moving south into the United States. Imagine a 120-130F air mass over Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta pushing southeast into the U.S. with a pall of suffocating dust and wildfire smoke.

I think we're talking about different time scales. I've seen like months and months [3-6+] in a row in some of these more tropical regions set monthly record temperatures. You'd be very hard pressed to find that outside the tropics. And I wasn't too surprised by those temperatures. It's a lot drier there in the summertime, easier to heat up the atmosphere. Still much more deadly in the eastern U.S. with astronomical wet bulbs. We might not get those 115F+ readings, but need to keep an eye on the 85, 90, even deadly 95F wet bulbs in the future.

This is where manual observation would come in handy. If that picture is recent and reasonably accurate for KTAN, there is no ceiling there.

The funny thing is you look at scoundrels like Tony Heller and they are posting articles from 1962 about millions dying, and we are just leaving 1962 in the dust. Same thing with 1921. He often posts some old New York Tribune or something that had a multipage spread on the heat alleging millions dead. I just don't understand how this is possible. These years are cold compared to today. You could argue air conditioning, but is it that prevalent in those regions to offset the massive population growth and aging that has occurred. Really makes you wonder: (1) Were the historic reports untrue or exaggerated? Or (2) Is something more sinister afoot - like millions of deaths being covered up and simply not reported on by the press? That is, if millions were dying in these much cooler climate regimes, how many are dying today?

Not sure those are analogous to what's going on in the tropics. If we look at Mexico City, for instance, we just a nonstop barrage of monthly mean temperatures FAR in excess of existing records in 2024. I don't believe that to be the case in the instances you cite. March April May