TheClimateChanger

Weird. You would think with temperatures in the mid 80s, and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, radar would be lighting up. I’m not complaining though. Glad we didn’t get that 1 to locally 4 inches of rain.

Doubt cloud cover will have much effect. It’s very hot and humid out.

Model projection showing elevated EHI for tomorrow.

SPC has Pittsburgh in a 5-9 percent risk of tornadoes (within 25 miles) for tomorrow. Given recent tornadoes with less than 2 percent risk, may be something to watch.

Update on yesterday's tornados:

Another thing I've noticed in reviewing old phenological records is that the same species of trees leafed out in northern Ohio later than they did this year in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. And temperatures from that era in Cleveland were in fact comparable to those observed in Marquette this year. Very interesting finding to me. You won't see any of this reported anywhere. Like you would think it would be important news, but I guess not. Oh, but do carry on about how NOAA's 2 degree warming estimate for U.S. is wildly overblown.

Some other oddities that don't jive with the official narrative. The mean winter temperature at Elkins, West Virginia [elev: 2000 feet, population almost nothing] over the past 9 winters is more than one half of a degree warmer than the mean temperature of all winters in Washington, D.C. [elev: near sea level, population: a very big city] from 1871 to 1921. This is a place that averages near 70 to 80 inches of snow per year historically, that is now warmer in the wintertime than the subtropical climate of the District of Columbia.

So what is the significance of this data? While NOAA continues to downplay the warming, we can see in fact that temperatures 100 years ago were routinely 8-10F cooler than the temperatures observed in 2024. The temperatures observed in this region in 2024 are more typical of 20th century East Tennessee (lower elevations). In fact, if we key in on Knoxville, Tennessee, for the period 1872-1996 (125 years), what we discover is this: 9 years [all on or before 1985] had a mean temperature at or below 52.1F. 34 years had a mean temperature of 53.4F or lower. 59 years had a mean temperature of 54.6F or lower. Turning instead to Tri-Cities, Tennessee [Bristol/Johnson City Area]... and I know the elevation here is a bit higher, but only by like 200-300 feet compared to the airports I showed in the Upper Ohio Valley. In fact, the elevation gain here is comparable to the elevation loss in comparing those locations to Knoxville and less than the elevation gain in the threaded records for those very locations. Anyways from 1938-2016, a period of 79 years, we find the following: 44 years had a mean temperature at or below 52.1F. 67 years had a mean temperature at or below 53.4F. All but 4 years had a mean temperature at or below 54.6F.

Very similar conditions can be noted in south central Pennsylvania, at locations like Hagerstown, Maryland [just across the state line] and Harrisburg/Middleton Area, Pennsylvania. Hagerstown, Md. Harrisburg/Middleton, Pa.

As we approach the half-way point of 2024, I figured it would be a good time to review the weather and past climate. Anyone who has followed me since the 1990s knows that I have consistently been the most accurate voice on climate change - even back to when I was but a wee lad of ten years. So far, everything is playing out largely as I had projected. For western Pennsylvania, this has undoubtedly been the hottest year on record to date. At Pittsburgh International Airport, the mean temperature has been 52.0F. In the threaded record, only 1880 is warmer. However, this was at the downtown city office - sited about 400' lower in elevation than the airport, and is not a reliable reading [as with most of the 19th century data in the threaded record]. From 1953-1979, the city office averaged 2.6F warmer than the suburban airport, with an annual range of +1.1F to +3.8F. Therefore, we can surmise that the mean temperature in downtown Pittsburgh is near 54.6F, with a high confidence interval of 53.1F to 55.8F. At Morgantown, West Virginia, the mean temperature has been 53.4F. Second to 1880, but Morgantown's records from that era also appear to suffer from a substantial warm bias. What is fascinating to me is 1998 is missing the entire month of March, and 2024 is still nearly a half degree Fahrenheit warmer! If you were alive in 1998, you can recall how it was a HUGE deal how warm it was in so many places. So to see this El Nino just completely blowing that away - even excluding a winter month - is incredible. At Wheeling, West Virginia, the mean temperature has been 52.1F, which is 1F above 1921. No data in this station thread 1954-1998, although only 1998 & 1991 would be warm year candidates. Worth noting the pre-1954 records were taken from a location adjacent to the Ohio River (at an elevation of less than 700 feet ASL, while the modern records are at the airport with an elevation of 1200 feet ASL).

What is the annual mean temperature to date looking like on all of your devices? You should add a year-to-date temperature summary.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 731 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 PAC003-270000- /O.CON.KPBZ.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-240627T0000Z/ Allegheny PA- 731 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL ALLEGHENY COUNTY... At 731 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms capable of producing both tornadoes and extensive straight line wind damage were located over Imperial, or 7 miles south of Moon Township, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Pittsburgh, Penn Hills, Mount Lebanon, West Mifflin, North Side Pittsburgh, Baldwin, Scott Township, Wilkinsburg, Robinson Township, Munhall, Brentwood, Swissvale, Dormont, Carnegie, Crafton, Green Tree, Mount Oliver, Ingram, Homestead and Edgewood. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built building away from windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4043 8028 4047 7988 4038 7989 4040 8026 TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 272DEG 33KT 4042 8029 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN $$ Bookbinder

What's interesting is, unlike many months, in many cases, it has been many decades since these longer POR stations had a warmer June. 1994, 1967, 1943, 1925 & 1919 show up a lot on the list of warm Junes in the commonwealth.

NWS has 98 as the forecast high for downtown Atlanta and KATL. I believe that forecast is for downtown Atlanta. Actually, comparing the two point-click forecasts, KATL is the same or a degree warmer every period.

Interesting. It looks warmer than the IEM estimate, but I'm not sure what data they are drawing off of that... also, the inclusion of May 31 data (7 am) draws it down a bit relative to a 24-hour day. Guess we'll have to wait and see what NCEI shows. Of course, most of the record warm sites have short PORs. But I'd still say the first order climate sites would suggest a top 10 warm June, and probably top 5.

Also, for the urban heat enthusiasts, find the so-called UHI in this set of data. We have one very large city, surrounded by rural areas and small. Urban heat theory would say the city is the hottest spot by far. For the record: I don't doubt UHI exists, this is for the bozos who say it's the cause of the warming and way overplay its impact - especially on trend. Like UHI warms the local environment relative to forests or farmland [mostly w.r.t. overnight lows], but it doesn't cause a never-ending warming trend. Or start warming areas outside of the city and/or oceans. That makes zero sense. If you listen to some of these bozos, the city should be 10F+ warmer.

Ah, interesting. Looks like it's doing an excellent job today as well, with widespread temperatures already between 95 & 100. Dewpoints have dropped back into the 50s in most areas, already see a couple of 40s showing up (KWRB - 99/49; and KOPN 93/41). Might even see some Tds drop into the 30s if this keeps up. Must be a big relief for those of you in the southeast to see those kinds of dewpoints at this time of the year.

If anything, NOAA consistently underplays how much warming has taken place. Just look at this map, and then compare it to the actual rankings of the various first order climate sites. This discrepancy grows more each and every year. And it has nothing to do with UHI, because the trend is the same for rural sites. Every site in the state of Pennsylvania is having a top 10 warmest June, with the exception maybe of Pittsburgh. I think it's top 12, but that's heavily influenced by the fact that the downtown station was nearly 500' lower in elevation. Plus, it goes back to 1874, not 1893 as this map. Several locations are near their warmest Junes on record. Yet NOAA claims it's not been warm at all. Top 15-25 - which is where they have most of the state - is not warm in this era. No idea what data they are looking at.

It could be SPC that’s asleep at the wheel.

Rare to see them trot out the "t" word, especially with SPC not even giving us a 2% chance.