TheClimateChanger

GFS really liking those state and provincial heat records in early August, especially Minnesota.

Long range GFS seems to really be sniffing out the potential heat wave. Obviously, unlikely and a long way out. But it did show 18z GFS temperatures in Michigan peaking at 109F (there were actually several days in a row where parts of the state were at or above 105F) and 106F in Ontario. These are 2 PM EDT temperatures... probably a good chance the high would be 1 or 2 degrees above those readings. All-time record for Michigan is 112F and Ontario 108F, so that's kind of intriguing to see on a 2+ week model. Wonder what it's seeing to come up with such high readings? Prompted to me to check Twitter, but I didn't see any mention of the long range GFS. I did notice a number of Tweets from earlier in the month about the long-range GFS showing 40-42C in the UK. It was way early with the potential, but it actually happened. I'd say that's absolutely incredible that the GFS was able to sniff out the potential of a heat wave shattering the national record weeks in advance, even if the timing was way off. Absolutely astounding, really.

Klaus Schwab and the World Economic Forum would like to derail your plans for western New York to become a climate refuge. They are promoting an MIT plan to create a Brazil-sized raft of "space bubbles" to blot out about 1.8% of the sun's energy to offset global warming. If something like this comes to fruition, western New York may cool and be 1.8% darker.

Agreed, although I think it may be worse than you think. Given what we've been seeing, which is often worse than what the models show, and factoring in the model projections for the year 2100, looks like there will be a permanent dust bowl over the central and southern Plains. That is to say, conditions akin to those present during the Dust Bowl will just be considered the base climate state as opposed to some extreme deviation from the norm. While the Great Lakes are projected to see precipitation increases, the summer projections show a modest decrease in precipitation - but more importantly, a large increase in the number of consecutive dry days and the number of days with extreme heat (90s, 100s) with the precipitation falling increasingly in occasional torrents - perhaps from tropical disturbances, or slow-moving gullywashers from time to time when the heat breaks. Makes sense with the Hadley cells moving north and expanding - should put much of the CONUS firmly in a region of predominantly sinking air. I imagine agricultural interests will find such conditions quite challenging. Will probably require substantially more irrigation. I just get worried when I see widespread temperatures of 115-118F in the Pacific Northwest, and 100-104F in the UK (north of 50N), which are both heavily marine-influenced climates, but relatively dry in the summertime. What happens when this projected drying expands east into the Plains. There were temperatures up to 120F in the Dust Bowl all the way into the northern Plains. What happens in 2100, with CO2 at 500+, maybe substantially higher, in an already drying climate when a mega drought shows up - do we see temperatures of 130F, 140F, shattering world records? Will it just get so hot that crops simply desiccate and die in the extreme heat, such that no amount of irrigation will be sufficient?

Looks like the high was at least 79 already.

HRRR and NAM3k much warmer than the global models tomorrow. Wonder if they will score a coup.

And the 18z run was back up to 90, with high humidity. Wonder what the 00z run will show?

The 18z GFS didn't look too bad. Monday looked like the day with the most widespread clouds and (thunder)showers, keeping temperatures in the mid 70s. Tuesday's activity looked less numerous, with temperatures climbing in to the mid 80s. The rest of the week just looks like typical dog days of summer stuff, with heat and humidity - upper 80s to near 90, and scattered thunderstorms around each and every day. Didn't look like any washouts over that period, just hit or miss activity... but of course there could be locally heavy rainfall with any thunderstorms.

A few other locations across central Pennsylvania came within a few degrees of record highs today... 83F in Bradford (record: 87F; in 1987); 92F in Williamsport (record: 95F; in 1911, 1922, and 1936); and 88F in Altoona (record: 90F, in 1952). Meanwhile, Johnstown fell 21F short of its record. Very difficult for Johnstown to ever set record highs in the summer since the old records were much lower in elevation and the airport is on a mountain.

000SXUS71 KPBZ 122122RERDUJRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA0521 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2022...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT DUBOIS PA...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 89 WAS SET AT DUBOIS PA TODAY.THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 88 SET IN 2005.$$

90 at AGC, but only 86 at PIT.

Why does the GFS and its ensembles always show a warm tongue extending into western Pennsylvania? It doesn't look based in reality at all. I've never really taken a close look at the long range modeled temperatures, but almost invariably it shows Pittsburgh and southwest Pennsylvania warmer than locations that have warmer average high temperatures (in some cases, by several degrees). This image isn't cherrypicked - the warm tongue is present throughout the model run to varying degrees. But you see here it shows the 2PM temperature band (10-90th percentile) for July 27 to be 79-96 in Pittsburgh, but 75-91 in Columbus, 77-94 in Cincinnati, 76-94 in Indianapolis - yet these are all places that are about 2-4 degrees warmer on average. It even shows us warmer than the coastal plain (even DC/Baltimore area) which is a few to several degrees warmer. Chicago is always oddly cool, even though its actually 2 degrees warmer on average. Even Cleveland has an average high temperature one degree warmer, but invariably it shows Pittsburgh a couple to several degrees warmer. Has anyone ever noticed this phenomenon before?

000SXUS71 KPBZ 112129RERDUJRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA528 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2022...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT DUBOIS PA...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87 WAS SET AT DUBOIS PA TODAY.THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 86 SET IN 1987.$$

Backed off a bit on Wednesday, but still a pretty warm day (mid to upper 80s). And it does show near 90 this coming Saturday, with low 90s on Sunday. The extreme heat on the GFS begins a little after the end of the Euro run. Still looks like a very hot pattern overall on the Euro. Shows Thursday morning in the low 70s, with 19C H85 temperatures. Probably would see 90+ by Thursday in this regime.

Also looks quite dry. Well under an inch of rain over the entire 16-day run.

Yes, looks like it will be a toasty week. I guess it might depend on convection. Could see more rain chances as the ridge builds closer. On another note, actually surprised its 2.1 degrees above normal this month so far. Hasn't seemed too hot... I guess the lower humidity has helped. The mean temperature so far has been 75.0F, and that may come a bit if we do get some of the bigger heat next week. Still quite a bit milder than two years ago, when the mean temperature was 77.3F - which was the hottest July since records have been kept at the airport locations (station thread moved to AGC in July 1935 and PIT in September 1952) and the second hottest month at either airport site behind August 1995 (77.7F). It was the hottest July in the entire station thread since July 1934 (77.7F), when records were still kept at the weather service office in the city. I didn't realize that July 2020 was that anomalous.

Well, the 12z run has backed off the big heat locally. But still looks rather dry. In fact, looks fairly dry for much of the country with the exception of the Texas gulf coast and southeast. The Great Plains bakes though.

I don't know. If this were to come to fruition, I would think that, with the right weather pattern, there could be an all out inferno mid to late July.

06z GFS brings the drought and heat for the Keystone State. Less than a quarter inch of rain at PIT through the end of the run - almost all falling tomorrow night, then completely dry thereafter. Temperatures stay fairly seasonable through next Friday, but then start to heat up on Saturday the 16th through to the end of the run. Obviously still pretty far away, but shows a week or more of 90s, including a few days in the upper 90s and low 100s. I think I saw Providence, RI at 107F on one afternoon.

This doesn't look too promising. That rain over the southwest corner of the state is mostly in the first 36 hours of the run, and it appears to have overestimated last night's rainfall (showing 2 to 3 tenths of an inch overnight). 6z was slightly wetter, but still rather dry.

Indeed, although a little misleading since he only took measurements irregularly. The highest reading was 76 at 1:00 pm. Presumably this is local solar time, since not only did daylight saving time not exist then, it also predates standard time. So this would be about 2:05 pm EDT, or reasonably close to maximum heating. Interestingly, the modern normal high in Philly is in the upper 80s, but the highest temperatures observed by Ben that month were 84F at 5:20 pm LST on July 22; 83-1/2 F at 6 and 7 pm LST on July 27; 83-1/3 F at 1 pm on July 28; and 82-3/4 at 12 pm on July 28. Given the small ranges, it looks like the thermometer was probably in a sheltered window sill, so I don't now how much value this has from a climate standpoint.

Not sure we will. Most recent run of the HRRR only gets us to around 83F or 84F as it shows cloudiness lingering well into the afternoon. Earlier runs were showing upper 80s but had skies clearing sooner.

Wow, I didn't realize how dry it's been over such a large expanse. I was just looking at the numbers since around June 14/15, and parts of multiple states have seen essentially no rainfall over that period. Erie, PA (0.02"), several sites in Indiana with only a few hundredths of an inch, Detroit, MI (0.11"). Most sites under a quarter of an inch, with a few 1"+ but those were generally from one or two hit-or-miss events over that stretch. Even in eastern IA, it looks better with 2"+ generally but almost all of that from a single day. And other locations (i.e., Burlington) show little if any rain over that stretch (0.17"). The dryness extends all the way into western New York - Buffalo has had less than 1/3 of an inch since June 9.

No, the NWS website simply didn't report the 19:56 observation, which is the METAR in which the 6-hour maximum would have been reported. Here is the missing observation showing a high of 32.8C: KCXY 302356Z 00000KT 10SM CLR 31/12 A3012 RMK AO2 SLP197 T03110122 10328 20306 55003

Good post. Bradford reached 90 on June 16, and a whopping 93 on June 22. Also an 89 degree reading on June 21. Prior to this year, the warmest June reading dating back to 1958 (when observations began at the airport) was 89, set in 2021 (June 29), 1994 (June 15 & 17), and 1988 (June 25). Who would ever think that Bradford (at 2105' elevation) would have more 90+ days than Central Park in June, and a maximum monthly reading 3 degrees higher? Even the mean maximum is only 0.4F lower.