TheClimateChanger

8th warmest summer to date in Bradford, Pennsylvania, less than a degree below the record set in 1987 & 2020 (out of 64 years).

Some context for the ongoing heat wave. Shared this in the Lakes & Ohio Valley forum, but feel it appropriate for here. Gives some insight into how the combination of heat and humidity are simply unprecedented over parts of the Plains states. I feel too much emphasis is placed on the temperature readings, with insufficient consideration on the dewpoint. 1936 had many extreme temperatures, but, by all accounts, humidity appears to have been exceptionally low during much of the heat wave. The heat today is different with dewpoints increasingly reaching into the 80s, and wet bulb temperatures creeping eerily close to levels which pose an extreme danger to life. I think the NWS should consider a third tier of heat alerts - an extreme heat emergency - for these future extreme wet bulb temperature events, where people are advised to shelter in a climate-controlled place, at least during the afternoons.

The 138F from June 19, 1987 has to be an error. The actual high was only 87F on that date (see below), so that heat index is not even close to being possible. The 131F from August 11, 1999 is possible - high was 104F on that date, although I'm thinking it must have been accompanied by a large, probably unrealistic dewpoint increase since there are no other records from that date.

Very impressive. Looks like 13 of the top hourly heat indices at Joplin, Missouri have been set or tied within the past 24 hours. Officially, the 125F heat index from yesterday was not the highest on record. But I'd say the readings from June 1987 and August 1999 are somewhat suspect, since there are no other hourly readings from those dates that were records. For that matter, the 117F at 9 am from 7/16/1986 is suspicious too. Regardless, one of the highest heat index readings on record. And certainly the most oppressive 24-hour period overall.

Do you mean exponential? In a logarithmic function, the increase in the dependent variable tails off over time (assuming time is your independent variable, as is the case here).

Nothing here, anyways: Past Seasonal Snowfall (weather.gov)

000SXUS71 KPBZ 212125RERDUJRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA525 PM EDT MON AUG 21 2023...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT DUBOIS PA...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87 WAS SET AT DUBOIS PA TODAY.THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 86 SET IN 2020.$$WM

Seeing a lot of air quality alerts in Minnesota. Is the smoke back?

Despite feeling rather fall-like, the daily mean was only one less than the normal daily mean. That’s the first below normal daily mean since August 2. Incredibly hard to go below normal when the low temperatures don’t drop below 65.

Almost a taste of fall out there today with the gloom and early afternoon temperatures not much better than 70F.

Just for the record, those are for downtown Dayton. The airport, where official records are kept is 200-300 feet higher in elevation and north of the city near Vandalia, Ohio. Point-click forecast centered over Cox Dayton International Airport is slightly lower, but still suggests at least 2 days at or above 90F and a close call on Tuesday of next week. Either way, I'm sure Spartman will be much relieved to see the 90+ drought come to an end. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 91. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 69. Monday Sunny, with a high near 93. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 89.

It’s also worth pointing out that the IPCC already suggests we were at 1.5C of warming relative to 1850, even in 2015. So by that metric, we would likely be approaching 2C of total warming already. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/

New paper from preeminent American climate scientist James Hansen suggests we breach 1.5C of globally averaged warming by next year. Thoughts? http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/UhOh.14August2023.pdf

What is incredible to me is just 12 years ago, even hardcore believers in climate change couldn’t fathom the possibility of 3C of warming by 2060. Now, here we are in 2023, and already exceeding 1.5C of warming. Scientists are saying we will likely breach 2C during the 2030s. It doesn’t seem so far fetched now, does it? And these new findings about the methane really supports my analogy of earth’s climate as a seesaw.

This is a fascinating article. This would validate some of my predictions. Here's what I told WeatherRusty about 12 years ago in a PM:

Now, up to 12 consecutive days at or above normal. Very good chance today will bring that figure up to 13; however, tomorrow appears to be slightly below normal. If we somehow reach normal tomorrow, the streak will almost certainly end on Friday and Saturday with much cooler low temperatures forecast. Despite having had only 2 below normal days as of the middle of the month, the month-to-date departure only stands at +0.8F, as there have been no dates with significant departures from normal.

Bit of a disagreement on the Td's in Iowa between guidance. GFS shows unbelievably comfortable Td's for mid-August, while the Euro brings in the jungle at the same time. 0z Euro (valid at 18z Monday) 6z GFS (valid at 21z Monday)

In other climate news besides the extreme heat in the Iberian Peninsula and North Africa, deadly fires have broken out on Maui in recent days. The State of Florida is off to an incredibly scorching start to the month of August, about a third of the way through the month. Florida is coming off of its hottest July on record, and things have only heated up further this month. Most places have far exceeded standing records for hottest first 10 days of August. Here's a look at the 5 hottest periods on record at several locations in the State: Miami, FL (1896-present) Orlando, FL (1892-present) Key West (1872-present) Marathon (1950-present) Fort Myers (1892-present) Daytona Beach (1923-present) Tampa (1890-present) Tallahassee (1893-present)

Interesting... Exactly normal for the month to date. Technically, there hasn't been a below normal day since August 2 - granted 4 of those days since have been exactly normal.

New all-time record dropped in Valencia, Spain, where the proverbial mercury climbed to 46.8C - beating the prior record by a whopping 3.4C. It was so hot that most commenters on Twitter/X are suggesting the reading had to have been erroneous or taken on the ground. The Spanish national weather service had to put out a statement confirming the validity of the reading, amid all of the doubters.