George001

Yeah we definitely have gotten lucky. Usually there’s at least 1 or 2 events that screw se ma and clobber NW zones, like that early Feb storm last year where I got 8 or so inches, Boston got barely anything and just NW got like 18+. As much as I hope we keep getting lucky this year, climo especially March climo favors a storm that screws us and clobbers NW areas. There’s a reason NW areas average more than us in se ma. I still think we could see something like that in March or even early April this year.

Boston over 50 inches for the winter now, how high do you guys think the seasonal total gets? I still think there’s one more big storm before winter ends, so I could see an outside shot at Boston making a late run at 70-80 inches if things break our way with the pattern. Even without a big storm, doesn’t look like a shutout pattern is coming anytime soon so 60+ seems reasonable.

Snow rates are starting to pick up some here. Maybe another inch or 2 before the storm ends?

Yeah some of the areas that the Euro had getting 9-10 inches even last night ended up with like 2-3 with mostly sleet.

As much shit as I gave the NAM, it was pretty good especially close in. Too amped with the warm layer a couple days ago, but the other models were too far south with it. Big bust for my big 3 and my forecast, the mid level warmth was more aggressive than I thought it would be. Rays final call looks like it’s going to verify fairly well.

The euro even last night gave me 9-10 inches. I don’t see 9-10 inches out there, shitty storm.

Welp onto the next storm, hopefully the next one doesn’t underperform like this piece of shit. Early March the pattern looks better, still think the March 3-4 window can turn into a Miller B. Just too much warm air aloft for this one.

Foxboro

A few runs of the Euro and a couple mesoscale models did with the 10:1 maps, but I’m guessing ratios were less than that. Also got boned by the sleet line setting up north of here.

Yeah I should have known but still annoying to see the modes printing out 12+ like 2 days from the storm, only for it to cut back a ton and me ending up with like 6-7 inches. What happened to cause this to underperform so much? Low ratios? My area got boned a bit from the sleet but it looks like even north of the pike isn’t getting great snow rates either, which is surprising.

This storm kinda sucks, what a letdown after the models showing a widespread 12+ for days. Still could make a comeback with the second half, but radar looks bad so that’s not looking likely.

I have about 6-7 inches, looks like some sleet is mixing in now. Lets see how the 2nd half of the storm does with the reach around once it goes back to snow. Hoping to get a couple more inches.

Looks good

Pics?

Shit, hope it’s wrong and yesterday’s models with the higher qpf are right. We will find out tomorrow.

Any wetter? These dry as a desert runs are driving me bonkers! The models had a foot plus just yesterday.

I don’t get how guidance is drying up with how the radar looks

Tossed, QPF going to be at least 1.5 inches in the jackpot zones

March 3rd is a legitimate threat. Ensembles have a signal (Miller b nor’easter/blizzard threat). Still need to see improvements with the ridge out west though.

Nice, that would give us a shot at a big one before spring.

Geps looks interesting for early March. Eps a little flatter with the ridge so the energy doesn’t dig enough. If we can get the western ridge to amplify a bit more and link up with the ridge over the north pole, we could see a low appear out of nowhere on the op runs. Feb 28th threat looks dead.

True, but there is a big difference between what the globals and mesoscale models have. Globals are lower with around .8-1 inches of qpf vs like 1.3 to 1.5 inches on the more aggressive mesoscale models. I’m expecting a big shift towards more qpf at 0z, and for the qpf to verify for the most aggressive guidance.

will it be all snow? Maybe not, but that’s an awful lot of moisture. There is every reason to lean high with QPF. A clash of incredibly mild air, the airmass to the south is the same airmass that brought us record warmth yesterday. Then we have a high to the north with arctic air funneling in. I’m convinced that this isn’t a normal overrunning setup, due to the magnitude of the thermal gradient (that meoscale models would be able to do better with), qpf will increase a lot more than what the global models have. Someone up north is going to get buried. South of the pike, it’s more dicey, we are gonna need to rely on dynamic cooling to offset the warm nose aloft.

Nah take em up. The low isn’t going to ram into the high like the nam and rgem think, I don’t buy that at all, it’s going to redevelop and turn into a Miller B.

After seeing all those model runs with 10+ here 6-8 would be a let down. I hope that’s wrong.