George001

Euro has 30+, I buy that.

What are you thinking about my area, based on what im seeing on the Canadian it looks like my area is right on the line.

Imagine if we had the Canadian track with the Euros 940s mb low

The Canadian looks really good, I wonder if we would see a rain to snow type scenario with that as the low comes up the coast, due to the more tucked track it brings in some more warm air initally. However, as the low continues to deepen it creates its own cold air via dynamical cooling, changing over many areas in se mass from rain to blizzard conditions. Is this a possibility with the track and strength of the low?

I agree. Rain snow line would be confined to the outer cape imo, NW of there blizzard conditions.

The pattern doesn’t look great in early Feb but it’s not a torch pattern, still looks like there is cold air on our side of the globe unlike 2011-2012. I’m not going to give up on winter after the pattern change, it can and has snowed in patterns worse than the projected early Feb pattern. I’m not a fan of being negative and downplaying threats 3+ days out, id rather look at the possible upside. That’s part of the fun of tracking.

The biggest blizzard in the last decade for my area was Feb 2013, which deepened to 968 mb at its peak. The euro as well as many of its ensembles have the low deepening even more than that. This has the potential to be a historic blizzard, even stronger than Feb 2013 and possibly even Feb 1978. The crazy thing about that Euro run is it wasn’t even a direct hit and still gave eastern mass 2+ feet. Imagine how much it would be with a 940s mb low over Nantucket or the outer cape instead of se of the benchmark!

Is this is a Miller A or Miller B? It appears to have both significant northern stream energy and southern stream energy.

THE EURO IS A MONSTER BLIZZARD!!! LOW DEEPENS TO THE 940S!

It looks like the low goes over the cape, yet the snow output looks a little low. I would think the mean would be 6-8+ even at this lead time all the way down to the canal, how come it’s tainting so far inland? It looks like for the mean the 0 line is offshore.

Yeah the low didn’t go quite as far west as I initially thought, it goes over sema not western mass like it appeared on the black and white maps. That would still probably be fine for my area.

Yeah, not much elevation here.

The Canadian is a legitimate possibility, I’m not going to ignore it. I do think it’s possible the low comes inland a bit, but even if it does, with the rapid deepening and strength of the low, I don’t think the rain snow line would get that far inland due to the dynamical cooling offsetting the more tucked low.

If the low closes off and deepens rapidly, wouldn’t it slow down? It would also come west if it does that though.

Out to sea.

The Canadian is an inland runner, looks like it’s over western mass but the low is very strong. Hopefully it can snow east of the low, is that even possible?

I’m very happy with this eps run this far out. Yeah the mean is offshore, but there are quite a few very strong lows closer to the coast. Looks much better than the Euro OP.

Euro holds the energy back in the southwest too much so the trough doesn’t go negative early enough. Definitely a concern, but that is one of its biases and hopefully we see the EPS step in the right direction.

That’s a great look. Low hugs the coast, but not so much that it drives the rain snow line way inland. That’s blizzard conditions for NYC, Long Island, and all of SNE NW of the rain snow line which would be confined to the outer cape. Even NNE gets hammered since the low is so far west.

964 mb and more importantly, the low looks like 100 miles NW of last run.

HOLY SHIT THIS IS A MAJOR STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION, THATS A GODDAMN BLIZZICANE!!!

6z was OTS but close, 12z not out yet. Id like to see the Canadian and European guidance trend in the right direction even if it’s not a direct hit. Canadian and Euro were whiffs last night, but had very strong storms that brushed Eastern mass.

The gfs is a useless model. The guidance is right where we want it this far out, a day ago the concern was an inland runner and thermals, now it’s ots. Windshield wipers, this happens every storm.

Good evening. I am hoping that kicker energy crashing into the west coast weakens or slows down, despite that being an issue on the Canadian, the low still deepens to the 960s. Some of the southern energy is buried into the southwest as well, so on this run of the Canadian it is a sloppier, more progressive solution. However, I see this as a good thing in that with a sloppy phase and issues with the kicker, it still manages to scrape eastern mass and has a very powerful ocean low. This gives credit to the idea of what the ceiling could be if everything comes together, stronger low, earlier closing off, slower storm, farther west low, more expansive precipitation shield.

If this storm lives up to it’s potential, it will be measured in feet, not inches and it would be a widespread area too. From what I see there is both very strong northern stream energy and a very strong southern stream energy. There are like 4-5 pieces of energy, and if even 2 of them phase it’s a big storm. If everything phases, in my opinion the low will deepen even more than the models are saying right now, possibly all the way to the 940s or even 930s. I’ve never seen so many pieces of energy that strong so close together on the models, last time we got a low that deepened to the 960s (mid March 2018), the much of the region saw 18-24 inches with isolated 24-30 totals with blizzard conditions. We had a monster blizzard with a low in the 960s, if it gets down to the 940s or 930s which could happen if this maximizes it’s potential, there is a very real chance of a widespread 40-48 inches with an isolated 48-60. That is what a low that gets down to the 930s that stalls over the cape would do. Due to how many pieces of energy there are and how strong each piece is, there is a lot of room for error in my opinion. Even if only 2-3 pieces phase, if it comes up the coast that’s still a huge storm.