George001
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Everything posted by George001
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It’s not on the OP runs yet but the European and Canadian ensembles show what looks like a Miller B around the 16th. The upcoming pattern is looking great, but I’m rooting for Miller Bs instead of Miller As. Miller As can be nice, but it seems like most of our big storms (12+) are Miller Bs.
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Ended up with 13-14 inches here, double what was forecasted last night.
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This is a fail, should have stuck to my guns.
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Snowiest January since 2018, and the great pattern is just getting started based on the long range guidance. This is why its good to let the winter develop and give it a chance before writing it off. When I made that panic room threat things looked bad, but I jumped the gun there.
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Yeah I saw a report in Norwood (in the mega band) and 20:1 ratios with over a foot of snow was reported there. I’m not entirely sure how accurate it is, but I did see several reports saying ratios in that 20:1 range.
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Thanks, It sure did! I’ve had a lot of busts (like last Monday) so its nice to be right about one.
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Looks like snow ratios were big in this storm, the QPF total was what the higher end of what guidance had (like eduggs said above) but the ratios were like 20:1 instead of 10:1, so those 10:1 snow maps ended up being an epic fail.
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I don’t know if it means anything now, but the La Niña trending towards being more and more east based could be really good for later in the winter. The pattern looks to be really good for the rest of Jan on the long range models, could the East based nature of the Nina help us in Feb and March?
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I’m eyeballing 12-13 inches, what a storm!
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The latest hrrr has about 4-6 more inches of 10:1 ratio snow in eastern mass (in the heavy bands there are reports of 20:1+ ratios) it started running this hour, so that’s on top of what has already fallen. The funny thing is, the QPF output is actually HIGHER now than it was for the entire storm on some of the weaker runs last night.
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Thanks lol I’m already at around 10 inches and it’s still puking snow. What a storm!
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My forecast might have been too conservative for once
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He gonna wake up a very happy weenie like I did.
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I’m eyeballing 6-7 inches…. holy shit
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The latest hrrr has .6-.7 more QPF for eastern mass, that’s on top of the snow that has already fallen. Ratios have reportedly been as high as 15:1 or 20:1, so extrapolating that for my area we would have 9-14 more inches on top of the 4 or so inches we already had (last I checked). That would result in a 13-18 inch storm total if correct.
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Did the strength of the low increase more than expected?
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Foxborough area
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Holy shit
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The HRRR runs that only gave my area 4-5 inches of snow last night are going to be WRONG! I’m getting BURIED!!! Gotta be at least 3-4 inches already and massive flakes. The TV mets were saying when we wake up at sunrise there wouldn’t be a ton of snow on the ground. Am I going to get over a foot?
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Thats very interesting how there were three lows earlier and now there are only 2, looks like one of the lows to the east absorbed the other one. I could be wrong but I don’t think it’s a coincidence that just after what appears to be a low absorption event the radar starts blowing up off the NJ coast. I read that this convection off the NJ coast is occurring a couple hours earlier than modeled by the NAM.
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Regardless of what happens that’s really damn cool, 3 lows! If even one low becomes dominant and absorbs the others this could get really interesting. -
Good question I have absolutely no idea, it looks like there are 3 lows. I’ve never seen anything like it!
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Maybe not, we will find out tomorrow. I feel like this one is going to be better than my other forecasts have been though.
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He’s right, it’s a nowcast. Models have the right idea but even small initialization errors would lead to major changes. Miller Bs are notoriously difficult to forecast.
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I gotta learn how to make my own maps
