Spanks45

I am still ok with those lows running close to long island, smell the sleet/rain...we probably won't sniff 30° even if the low tracks that close

We expected some bouncing around at some point, it wouldn't be a good storm if we didn't have a run or 2 that looked like it would start slipping away. Off to the ensembles....

2016 light version......has had that look for days, we were bullseyed in that one as well, might have been 5+ days out too, only to watch it subtly shift south run by run. Thankfully we had a last second bump north. But in the end the bullseye ended up DC to NY

The kid...

That's a big storm for us down here when comparing to last year's seasonal debacle..We take anything and be happy at this point...in the end I expect some white rain to start, icing up by the evening. Probably one of those evening rush hour issues

31.8⁰, my kid just took the dog out and wiped out on the walkway...must be icy, she thought it was funny

Just noticed the 18z GFS ensembles removed all of the blue colors around AK towards the end of the run and replaced them with a growing ridge....Not saying it is right, but just nice to see, plus the -NAO continues through the end of the run.

I would almost take 3-6 inches on Monday...still worried that Wednesday gets shoved too far south in the end.

Yup, a huge slug of moisture heading NE, but never actually makes it any further than NYC...the moisture gets eaten alive as the cold/dry air pushes south

its 2020, so I will just assume it does....

Oh believe me, same here...something to shovel will be just fine, it would also be nice if it stuck around for more than 1 day

I concur...shift 2016 north just a bit and we would have been more than just fine.

That high pressure worries me a bit...sort of reminds me of the 2016 blizzard

Quite cold afterwards too....multiple nights in the single digits or below

cold mid levels, take a look at the kuchera...filthy

Why does this thing need to be 6 days out!!! So much time to find some way to mess it all up...pattern sets up 3-4 days from now if that is of any help..

Ones that develop early. IF they need to, they can run right through Rhode Island as a fully developed system, time for the western crew to score on a few of these.

Something has to break right.....Right? Lol, who knows, but as some have said that period from the 14th though the 19th looks like we might have a chance at something. Hopefully the look continues to hold as we get closer

I told my wife after no shave November, I will continue with no shave until we shovel....hopefully it doesn't last until next winter

Snow and stormy conditions to start the month of December, then we Spring until Mid March...it definitely would fit the "groundhog Day" feel this year has brought....

its going to be a long winter if the Euro keeps spitting out solutions like this, less than 84 hours out. This is to be expected from the NAM not the "King"

We hope....Wish we could rely on the old EE rule, but it almost seems like the polar opposite nowadays.

same...nice to see at least, it can still snow around here, lol

yes please...I am like 4-5 miles NW of him, sitting in the valley here though might not bode so well for me

agreed...I think winter forecasting is pretty much voodoo at this point (could be due to the changing background climate making analogs almost useless, probably why Bastardi is wrong 99.9% of the time these days). I see countless forecasts every year that end up wrong or revised over and over again to make them look "better" and when they do end up getting them close to being right, it is usually for the wrong reasons. We get snow in October and April/May (Tip did call the October snow well in advance, kudos). Nino's and Nina's don't even act like the normal events of the past...I love the tracking aspect of weather, regardless of rain or snow...