vortex95

The Feb 1989 event? Ugh. That was bad. Coastal NJ did well, and so did SE MA and Cape Cod.

I said the same thing for the 1986-87 winter here, the only "good" one in the "worst period EV-A" for SNE snow (1984-85 to 1991-92). I ended up w/ something like 68" in Woburn MA (about 14" above avg), However, it could have been well over 100" (unheard of at the time) if my area didn't miss the two Cape Cod-only blizzards in two weeks at end of Jan-start of Feb!

And a 1 in 10 shot CoastalWx will be satisfied w/ his total Weymouth snowfall!

And what about the ECMWF AI?

But the GDPS SEZ go for it!!! LOL.

Hearts On Fire?

Great analysis, and I learn a new vocab work..."DYAD!"

One reason why the ECMWF may be off on its own, it may not being handling (or handling better?) the Wed and Fri events. A lot IMHO hinges on how those impact things upstream and downstream. This is not a your typical calm pre-storm environment. It's a bit "crowded" aloft as to s/w. Subtle differences can magnify greatly as to details in 4-5 days.

No, his classic line when I would downplay an event, he'd always go, "WE'LL SEE!!!"

Drago pseudo-quote? If this storm does not pan out, Scott will have to get into his car, rev the engine and burn rubber, blast "NO EASY WAY OUT," and vent his frustration, peppered by flashbacks to the good ol' days like March 31-April 1, 1997!

I worked w/ him at WSI for 10 years. Ultimate uber snow weenie and the cross-talk/discussion we had on wx are legendary!

Now THAT is EPIC! Fits him perfectly w/ his record # of posts on this site!

I have no idea what ACWATT means. It is an AmrWx slang only thing???

It's done some odd things recent years. It used to be best w/ TCs, then not so good, as one example. The tweaks and upgrades they do it it, it fixes some things, while it breaks other things. It's a constant battle w/ models to try to improve them. And it gets non-linear harder to keep a balance as they become more detailed and resolute!

As it stands right now. How much time do we have for the proverbial "CoastalWx TICK" N trend? LOL.

And ydy the ECMWF had *no* storm at all. But all the other global models had a storm ydy. Now the ECMWF has a storm, and the others are still on track for a sig E Coast snowstorm. So what's w/ this excessive ECMWF praising, as if it is the buck stops w/ it? Ever since Sandy in 2012, it has had this aura around it as if it is always right. And I am not talking about model performance over time. That's a smoothed avg. I am talking about individual events, which are all different, so it's never one size fits all. And we are talking an low pressure system that just gets going over NC around 12z Sun, so that's 4.5 days out still. There is no good reason to throw in the towel yet b/c one model is not onboard.

Or as CoastalWx would say, "DIAMOND DUST AT 30,000 FT!!!"

18z GFS is a Weymouth special! 3 contour cut off at 500 (going by standard every 6 dm) w/ a min height min of about 511 dm. That's nasty. A large part of New England gets into the closed circulation at 500, which I was concerned about initially b/c it was so tight off the Delmarva. And the best gradient at 925 ends up covering most of MA/RI/CT and SE NH. So that should mean solid S+ banding. Look at the mini-block at 500 initially over James Bay. That moves w/ the 500 low to the S and ends up S of NFL for excellent downstream s/w ridging. And look at those 925 and 850 temps. That's pure powder ratio up! If you want something to "complain about" (EEYORE CoastalWx will find a way - LOL), the uber crushing is well S over the Delmarva and NJ. 27" max near ACY and look at that rear sfc pressure gradient residence time as the low undergoes RI and sits in place for a period until the 500 support can catch up. This taken at face value, it's going to be "KRAZEE" for this area w/ sig coastal flooding. I seem to recall this happened unexpectedly or more than fcst in the Feb 2016 blockbuster, or one of those events in the mid 2010s. Ocean City was hit hard.

With the 500 cut off where it is on the ICON at 120 hr and the sfc low about 100 mi E of ORF, that should be enough for a movement close enough to SNE for sig snow. The strong vort SW of the cut off is somewhat of a wildcard. It seems to be rotating around the cut off faster than the upper low itself, so does it continue and go negative as it crosses the coast and you get one large cut off low just S of LI? The ridge over the Rockies is staying put and not de-amplifying, so that's good. Downstream the flow is still rather flat, but there are modest 500 height rises S of NS and NFL 108 to 120 hr.

Yes, more GEFS members than not show a big goose egg for New England. That is concerning when coupled w/ the ECMWF op. But the AI ECMWF shows a hit!?