MN Transplant

Right now they are only going to be running this during the Spring Experiment period (mostly May), but it is forward-looking towards what we will see in the future with modeling.

I do know something about this. NCAR is running FV3-based ensembles at 3km over the US (13km global) out to 204 hours and MPAS ensembles at 3km over the US (15km global, tapered) out to 132 hours. Just from a couple of days of looking, it seems like the probability matched mean is generally higher than the straight ensemble mean. Here is where we are for the first event: FV3 MPAS

Trace. On to Friday.

The NAM Nest has been insisting on some showers Wednesday afternoon. Maybe we can get some rain on rain action this week.

I think this is related to the new water tower that will be going up in my neighborhood in a few years. Probably an excuse to replace what I assume are almost 60 year old lines anyway. I’ll give credit to the different agencies, we’ve had water line work and gas line work, and are on the schedule for street repaving by VDOT. They organized it well.

@H2O New water main! Watching the guy remote control the compactor is entertaining.

0.55” which brings me to 0.89” on the month.

Euro with a solid 1" in the metro corridor.

48 and rain, baby!

That is a bizarre find.

The good news from the models is that none of them are really showing a true failure mode. They all have widespread precip, almost all 0.5"+.

In my mind, a 2015-16-like season is still a winner because it contained a truly historic snowstorm. I think it would be different if we were talking about a region wide 12-18” storm.

Yes, an overperformer. Globals are liking Saturday evening for rain. Deterministic solutions generally from 0.5” to 1.5” and ensembles over 0.75”. That would be extremely welcome.

Wind just kicked up. The tree parts barrage is on.

After that washout weekend, I’m now at 0.06” in the last two weeks. The pollen is everywhere.

0.01” at IAD, 0.02” in Falls Church, 0.51” at DCA

Blew up right over me but that meant the backside came quick. 0.02”.

0.02” DCA 0.01” My house 0.00” IAD

Where's the winter 23-24 thread!?

Ian's on top of it: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/04/14/drought-conditions-dry-dc-virginia-maryland/ Moderate drought for the DC area https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?VA

The good news, I just ran a very rudimentary analysis of Jan-Apr vs May-July precip, and there is a positive correlation but it is so slight as to pretty much consider it random.

It is funny, that article was posted on August 17th, 1999. In August/Sept of 1999 at DCA there was over 15" of rain All we need to do is complain!

I think it is precisely because we are in a relatively wet part of the country and don't get droughts that the dry periods seem so anomalous. Our vegetation is acclimated to regular precipitation and then there are H2O's water supply comments. The concern arises if the dry pattern continues into summer. That's where the evapotranspiration maxes out. And the other problem is that as we go into later summer the chances for organized convection nearly vanish. So, you get only spotty dry relief. I guess I'm saying that this is a notable start to the year and could portend problems down the road, but a few well-placed systems could also bring us right back to normal. So, only a slightly elevated level of concern so far.

Yes! You are paying for the sewage charge no matter if your water is going there or not.