MN Transplant

06z NAM Nest 1hr max gust product. Large area of 60mph+ in MD.

If the event ends up looking like the NAM above, we are going to see massive severe thunderstorm warning boxes accompanying that line for wind.

As the wind threat has moved from the global to the mesoscale model range, the view of the character of the event has changed. Rather than a lengthy synoptic event, the NAM and HRRR both have an intense surge of wind accompanying the frontal passage. Might be wild for a shorter period.

The NAM Nest is pretty aggressive on the post-frontal winds on Saturday evening. Gusts in the 50s.

We'll see how April goes, and then it might be time to fire up the hottest-year-on-record tracker.

GFS is still most aggressive with Saturday's winds, with gusts well into the 50s and even some 60s. The other models are not buying in. The NWS point and click for me has a max gust of 47mph.

Yeah, I like big dog hunting. And I got 7” of bonus snow in 15/16, which is more than I can say about 3 of the 7 winters since.

It’ll be interesting to see if we can maximize the wind. There is a disconnect right now between the best boundary layer setup (afternoon, such as in your sounding) and the best wind direction (downslope NW) which occurs more toward the evening.

Yeah, it was pervasive. Not terrible readings on PM2.5, but a spike around noon. https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/03/27/dc-smell-north-carolina-wildfires/

Cleanly the worst snowfall winter if you sum or average the total of the three main climo sites. Just awful.

It smells outside

That's some high-end stuff. Awful.

We all joke about drought, but it really does suck when it happens.

Amazing, those 240 hour forecasts are usually right on!

I'm up to 0.97" storm total. Looks like the best was from DC west along 66 and north and west of Frederick.

My moral victory this bracket is that I was correct in bouncing all 1 seeds before the final four. I just didn’t pick the right replacements!

A bit chillier than the models had it. 40.8 0.70”

Yeah, finally got a decent downpour. 0.21” Down to 51 after a midnight high of 71.

DCA got it. At least 83

80.4

78.4. Effortless torch.

Beauty of a day today. 67.6 as a high.

This morning’s NAM was the worst of the bunch (midday 40s). The GFS took a step back too. Friday looks gross. Saturday is still unsettled.

LWX .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Uncertainty remains wrt the temp forecast Friday into Saturday due to where a frontal boundary will stall. Models continue to show a 20- 30 degree spread in high temps during this period. With the front stalled nearby, a sfc low will track along the front. Some guidance shows a wedge of stable/cool air to the east of the Alleghenies with highs only staying in the 50s north of I-66 on Friday, however some guidance erodes the wedge rather quickly. Ensemble guidance and the NBM show the most likely solution at this time is the front stalls somewhere near the FA and a gradient in temperatures exists with near 70 across the southern areas and upper 50s along the Mason- Dixon. Should a warmer scenario come to fruition, the potential for enough instability rooted in the boundary layer to result in surface-based convection/thunderstorms, especially during the Saturday period as the strong sw trough moves through. Given favorable mid-level lapse rates of 6-7C/km coupled with 60-70 kts in the 850-700 mb layer, there could be the attendant risk for severe weather if this scenario works out given the strong dynamics and shear at play.