MN Transplant
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Everything posted by MN Transplant
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Keeps getting worse to our northeast
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Here's some fun science for you. Top and bottom images below are from this morning in Quebec. You can clearly see the fires to the west of the cloud cover in the top image. Two hours later you can see that a field of small cumulus clouds have developed only in the fresh smoky areas. It is very likely that the soot is acting as cloud condensation nuclei to help the cloud development. This is a different process from fire-related pyrocumulus which have the additional impact of the heat created by the fires.
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At this time of year, the average precip at BWI is 0.14", so I'm sure Tom T was just waiting for the day where we finally fell behind. If he phrased the Tweet as simply year-to-date instead of a particular number of days, it wouldn't have seemed as arbitrary.
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Yeah, getting gross out there.
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You have too much invested in being anti-drought. The fact that it is the driest year to date at any point into the growing season is very notable.
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One interesting thing about today will be high temps. The models are in the 81-84 range, but I wonder if we fall short because of the smoke.
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No real response from the air quality sensors so it is very likely aloft tonight. Doesn’t mean that it will stay that way, however.
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DCA 98 IAD 99 BWI 100 RIC 99
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Back to 93 at the 6pm ob
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Surprised at how murky it is out there. Down to 4mi vis at DCA.
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1.09” total here. DCA moved from top-2 driest May to top-10.
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it really pours if you get under one of these cells.
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A very welcome 0.40”.
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0.43” on the month at DCA. If we get less than .32” over the next few days, it’ll be the 2nd driest May on record. Currently -6” on the year.
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Yeah, that is a good dousing on Monday. 2" through DC. Doesn't finally completely clear out until Thursday.
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I didn’t notice it too much until walking around today, but the sunny areas are really drying out now. That said, just another ridiculously beautiful day out there.
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The models seem to agree that Monday is a lost cause, but there is still a difference in how much of Sunday we can salvage.
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It is back!
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An interesting analog is 1986. Very dry first half of the year with a dying Nina. Then precip normalized as we went through the second half of the year into a Nino, culminating in a nice winter.
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Just like April, we are going to need a late stick save to stop this from being one of the driest Mays on record. 2nd place right now (0.43”) at DCA and nothing in store until the weekend.
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Kudos to the mesoscale models which had enhancements to the line just south of 66.
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Euro is not that far off from a similar solution.
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0.15 yesterday and looks excellent today. 06Z NAM Nest looks good for rain on Tuesday.
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We might salvage a decent Saturday Evening and a very nice Mother's Day.
