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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    The problem with complex, interconnect models like these are that you can’t just simply “fix” one thing and make it better. Let’s say you increase the resolution. While there are huge benefits to that, there are also potential downsides because every weather model has estimates built in and those may not be valid anymore at a different resolution. It also depends on what is being verified. The modeling centers run and assess for quite a while before release. But if they are focused on, say, heights and temperature, they may not care as much if east coast cyclones are now not handled quite as well.
  2. MN Transplant
    I wish there was a middle ground where the map starts off as just dots, which looks cleaner, and then as you zoom in you can see the numbers. PurpleAir and Paku both show the values all the time while this one doesn’t show them at all. CoCoRaHS got it right with their interactive precip map.
  3. MN Transplant
    I thought it smelled more yesterday but the 2.5 levels are a bit higher today. Should diminish starting tomorrow as we go to a south wind.
  4. MN Transplant
    Tomorrow!
  5. MN Transplant
    Brutal difference between west and east of Baltimore month-to-date.
  6. MN Transplant
    Heard from a co-worker in Oakton that they had a "wicked" storm. He's from Long Island, not Boston, but still.
  7. MN Transplant
    Down almost 20 from the high and at the low of the day, 65.7. 0.13", so not a ton of rain.
  8. MN Transplant
    I had an outflow gust in the 30s, but nothing once the rain got here.
  9. MN Transplant
    Let’s go!
  10. MN Transplant
    It is interesting that there were several "gaps". It wasn't only DC, but the VA/NC border, the NC/SC border, and NE PA. These are things that are just simply unpredictable at this point.
  11. MN Transplant
    The good news is that when ECMWF pushes the envelope, Congress pays attention.
  12. MN Transplant
    Looks like that one just started producing lightning.
  13. MN Transplant
    Possibly, but it is unlikely to be significant in this case. Research has found that large, slow-moving MCSs have more impact. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258795094_A_Numerical_Simulation_Study_of_the_Effects_of_Anvil_Shading_on_Quasi-Linear_Convective_Systems
  14. MN Transplant
    Maybe the most encouraging ob is the 68 degree DP out in Winchester.
  15. MN Transplant
    There is a realistic fail mode here that has been hinted at by some models where there are good storms up in PA where the dynamics are solid and down in southern VA and NC where the instability is better.
  16. MN Transplant
    Paying attention to the DPs on the HRRR vs NAM. HRRR is much drier and the coverage is unimpressive. Is that a bias in convective scenarios this year? I haven’t been paying attention.
  17. MN Transplant
    00z NAM Nest looks good for severe. Always an IMBY game though.
  18. MN Transplant
    18z NAMing. 7” in DC
  19. MN Transplant
    0.93” today making it 1.87” for the last few days.
  20. MN Transplant
    I remember June 2006 as multiple rounds of MCS-like storms. Is my memory failing me? Whenever I see a N/S oriented line that start to train, I immediately think of TD Lee.
  21. MN Transplant
    ~1.2" so far this week.
  22. MN Transplant
    I have the VP2 mounted on a post and I put the ant poison (gel) on the post. Problem takes care of itself quickly.
  23. MN Transplant
    My VP2 gets ants every year.
  24. MN Transplant
    Yeah, that's effectively where I am.
  25. MN Transplant
    0.45” of very welcome rain. DCA and IAD are in the 0.3”-0.4” range.
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