MN Transplant

It is mostly because the vegetation (especially grass) takes a beating after a few weeks of dry conditions in the summer. It becomes noticeable and people talk about it.

Ctrl-C, Ctrl-V for July/Aug in the DC area

The HRRR is backing DPs down to the upper 60s to around 70 and lowering the available CAPE. The NAM seems more realistic per usual, but it is also usually aggressive in these scenarios. It'll probably end up somewhere in between.

And while I have my spreadsheet up, if the morning low holds at DCA, this will only be the 11th 82+ low on record at that station.

A good delimiter for big-time heat years is whether there are 20 or more 95+ days. There have only been 12 of those in DCA history (2016 being the latest, 2012 having the record of 29). We are currently sitting at 10 with plenty more to come. If you do year-to-date, 2024 only trails: 2012 (14) 2010 (11) 1991 (13) 1911 (11) Interestingly, in 2016 the heat was backloaded, with only 1 95+ day through 7/9, on the way to 23 total.

82/75 at 6am at DCA. Woof. edit - as of 6am none of the big 3 airports have dropped below 80.

Radar hopping in NoVA

98/75 for a 111 HI at the 1:52pm ob at DCA

And in case anyone was worried, the Euro has us back in the upper 90s by Sunday.

Yes. Yes it is.

Bouncing around 97/98. 6th consecutive day with at least a high of 97 at home.

Yes, there is absolutely a failure scenario for us, with the highest risk from 95 and west.

Exactly. 2010 had the crazy number of 90s, 2011 had the stretch I listed including obscene humidity ("sweat ceiling"), and 2012 had the really big-ticket heat (104 and 105 at DCA). Since then, it has really only been 2016 that went big. Yeah, the slow start to the summer 90s means that this year won't challenge those types of records. I'm curious whether the Staunton data shows the same as DC, where '34 and '36 had hot daytime highs, but the lows were more "reasonable" on those days. Likely some combination of dry conditions and the lack of UHI.

Looking back at the climatological data, this is going to end up high on the list of average temperature over 7 days. And yet, I'm glad this isn't quite a repeat of 2011. 8/2/2011 98 74 8/1/2011 100 75 7/31/2011 99 80 7/30/2011 97 81 7/29/2011 104 80 7/28/2011 95 78 7/27/2011 93 78 7/26/2011 95 76 7/25/2011 93 78 7/24/2011 97 84 7/23/2011 102 84 7/22/2011 102 83 7/21/2011 99 80 7/20/2011 94 77 7/19/2011 97 79

It would trend west and 95 would mix.

Wouldn't this be a kick. Full run 12Z GFS total precip.

If anyone else needed to look up Maddox, here it is: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/60/2/1520-0477-60_2_115.xml

97 for the high so far at DCA. 97.3 at home. I had forgotten how much closer I run to the airports when it is dry vs when my garden is healthy! What a truly putrid stretch of weather.

What an eyewall pass for Houston proper.

90 already at home. Airports in the upper 80s.

97/99/100/97 is a top stretch at my house from 2012-on. Just brutal.

Ours died too. Staying overnight with family in MD.

Hit 99.7. So that’ll go in the books as the 2nd 100 of the year.

River wind effect. DCA is +13 to yesterday as of the 11am ob.

All three have hit 98. I got to 99.0.