MN Transplant

About an inch over the three days. Pretty boring.

Yeah, not great

The OP GFS is the most aggressive in bringing the 500 low east, over Iowa on Monday. The Euro is way west, on the ND/MT border. The GEFS is over ND, with still some good spread in the ensemble members. West doesn’t “save” NY since there still may be a cirrus deck, but it is a lot better than the low going east where it brings lower clouds into play with precip nearby.

http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/eclipse/ Looking pretty good in NY. The risk in the eastern US at this point is simply the location of the cirrus deck. I'm wondering if the best chances for Texas might simply be some clearing mid-day to allow the storms to fire in the afternoon (after the eclipse).

At this point the precipitation is just a proxy for cloud cover from the EPS. I do worry about the eastern areas having a leaf of high-level cloudiness come over. I hedged my bets last April and booked hotel rooms in both Louisville (with a target of Bloomington, IN or southern IL) and Syracuse. Worst case scenario for me is probably WxUSAF's best-case scenario, where the trough ends up clearing the Texas area, but is dousing the Ohio River Valley and cloudiness has spread over the rest of the northeastern US.

EPS from 00z and GEFS from 06z. Nice job by Pivotal of putting the eclipse path on their maps.

The GEFS has a convoluted set of solutions that indicate that anything beyond the 4th should be viewed very skeptically. There is a trough entering the lower 48 on the 4th. A fair number of the solutions dig the trough over the intermountain west, and then a following trough interacts with it and ejects it. Unfortunately, that is a pretty rotten result for much of the eclipse path. Hopefully it speeds up or slows down.

Over 0.7” here. Sky is brightening.

Pretty gross day. I’d be fine if the slug of rain missed us east tomorrow.

I don’t think so. This isn’t like building a new bridge between MD/VA north of 495 or even expanding lanes on the Beltway. This is a replacement.

Tomer set up an eclipse ensemble page: http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/eclipse/

https://twitter.com/forecaster25/status/1772066158725738506?s=20

Pretty good agreement now on the GEFS of a trough entering the west coast on March 31st and another following that on April 3rd/4th. The prior trough takes about 3 days to traverse the country, so the one on the 3rd/4th would theoretically be through the eastern US prior to the eclipse. That is absent any new blocking developing. However, the OP GFS is slower with the troughs and has the latter one entering the West Coast on the 4th and causing trouble for the Eastern US on Eclipse Day.

Not worried yet

1.47" total

It rained 2 months ago.

1.10” and still going. Above the wide right models, but below the jackpot models.

You can see the front pressing down and the smoke out ahead of it

70 at DCA

Recently in terms of the last couple weeks? Because it was the least windy winter on record.

Casual +15 on the high at DCA.

Climo stations running 8-10 degrees above normal halfway through the month.

80 at IAD and BWI 77 at DCA

I shouldn’t have been surprised to see the low 70s today, but here we are

BWI to 48mph DCA to 41 IAD to 39