greenmtnwx

Any ideas on how Loon/Lincoln is doing? Was thinking of heading tomorrow but only if big totals.

Ultimately on the ground (radar presentation) these things end up about 50 miles west in sensible weather versus late-stage modeling. Particularly phased, wrapped up storms, whether it be because of better precip fields in the mid-levels, etc.

Trending wrong way. GFS is the superior model right now in this regime.

This ones over for you and me lol

I agree. I'd favor E NH up through E ME and the Maritimes. The GFS HAS been very, very good the last year or so leading the way on the more progressive, later developing eastern solutions. EC/UK just too often been too wrapped up.

About 7 or 8 of these out of 30 are still that big Catskill/Adirodack/VT hit. Roughly the same number as the eastern solution over E NH and ME. Although the GFS is a little more insistent on the eastern solution, even nodding towards the mostly coastal ME and on NE from there solutions.

That is some ridiculous EPS individual spread. Huge differences. One potentially troubling issue is the late development. Seems to be bombing ever so later each run which we'll see if that continues.

Whiff is likeliest possibility. GFS is the best model at this point. It may be a little flat and progressive sometimes in bias but it has led the way for quite some time now.

NAM whiff. The whiff is definitely on the table. Don’t underestimate the GFS lead dog whiff.

Unfortunately I think the GFS has led the way more often than not the last year with these systems. Whereas it often had a progressive bias and would eventually cave to the Euro/UK/NAM blend, it seems as if more than often the last year it's the other way around.

...and then it'll be the 3rd week, then Xmas..... Will has always said second week. Listen.

Beautiful home man, beautiful spot, God bless.

Fatty liver?

Question is will it fire up the SE ridge or will any higher heights in NAO region push the cold into the east?

How euro and EPS progressing in the longer range. Still look encouraging?

Alex did you have this home built? What’s a new construction cabin like yours run up there you think?

Yes, if you get that Aleutian low far enough west to dive that trough into Hawaii you get the responding ridge into W. Canada. Hook that up with some relatively higher heights in the NAtl. and you could be in business.

I agree. The tendency with these PNA ridge out west the last couple of years has been for them to roll right over into the Ohio Valley and be short-lived. Guidance has this sticking around a little longer it would appear, somewhat anchored buy a slower pacific flow and higher heights in north atlantic.

Those are some helluva looks on the EPS.

Fact is things are starting to break right in the longer range. Just the fact that we've had such a warm November and odds favor a cooler regime flop (patterns usually last a month or so) at just the right time into mid-December is a good thing. Heights look to rise across the continental divide into Canada and in the North Atlantic. Will it be rocking, who knows. But it certainly looks at least in my estimation to be a better than average 500mb setup as we move into second week of December. It should favor building a better cold source in SE Canada and transport into the east coast. That usually will produce.

Got it

How’d GEFS and EPS look in that longer range any better?

Euro and GFS starting to look more promising beyond day 10.

Agree, they should not implement any of these restrictions. Let it run it’s course with the help of therapeutics, vaccine eventually. Disease worse than cure for the vast percentage

You guys are too much. We could just as easily have a record-breaking snowfall season or futility. You just never know. Long -range forecasting is fun and sometimes useful, but it's glorified guesswork at this point. A month from now we could be staring down a split PV AND a monster -NAO, or a historic SE ridge and an Alaskan pig. Either is just as likely as the other.