greenmtnwx

NAM definitely colder. Hope for the ski areas, settling back towards the globals.

The NAM is often right when it has the far amped up solutions. Refer to last December when everything had NW NJ and Pocono jackpot and NAM was correct with the Binghamton to Okema getting the goods while everyone else dryskotted to snizzle.

I think we know this is not gonna be a big deal for areas near the coast or even over much of SNE. The big question now is hows it going to do for the ski resorts that are in desperate need right now of a nice natural dump: that includes the Adirondacks, Catskills, Berks, Vermont New Hampshire and Maine. I wouldn’t say it’s desperation for them but it’s very much needed. They all pretty much staying white?

How’s that Friday system? La La La La La La, lock it up?

NAM 500mb extrapolated is headed to PIT

2/14/07 redux?

Agree

Similar story here in Monmouth County NJ to my place at 1800 in Wardsboro. You are right down the road from me. 2,300 ft great elevation, where you up at Boulder Ridge on 100?

Ehhh I’d say it’s a draw or at best split decision. Western/amped was wrong, but eastern areas got the banding and overperformed. Onto the next one soon.

Problem is that the transfer skips the metro area. So we are left with decaying snow to the west and redeveloping low too far east. Doughnut hole.

deep analysis.

I'll actually just ride this one out at the homestead in Monmouth County NJ although not looking good here either. Contemplated VT but that fell apart.

Don't do it Will. Don't go DIT on us now. I know it's been a tough season but writing's on the wall. Live to fight another day.

I wouldn’t say poo-pooing what is currently evolving. This is still offshore and not up the canal like those thoughts were the other day. But it’s still salvageable.

Couple thoughts. SREFS were way to far amped down in NJ/NYC early this week so you want them as far west as possible. I’d say shave 75 miles off the NW flank. Also haven’t we had a few systems in recent years where we do this multiple low dance, lows popping NE of the main energy only to have within the last 24-48 hours the initial low/energy become the dominant one tucked right into the coast? Seems like that’s what we are seeing and could lend credence to the idea that we may just end up with one consolidated low on modeling within the next few cycles that rides from just off SNJ coast to inside the benchmark or tighter?

Just brutal.

Nam coming in less amped this far. Not a great looking start.

Been an ugly 36 hours

Bingo.

Hence my tough early-season induced snow goggle comments. It is worse and has been trending that way from west to east the last day and a half. But we are all desperate, even the pros.

See above to 40/70. Don’t you mets go weenie on us lol.

Ehh, usually not at all. The last couple weeks maybe it’s crept in a little bit as far as the overall pattern and this system for Friday. A little bit defiant in view of the data. Hey it’s human nature. The patterns been a meat grinder, which would lend some strong credence to this one being East and strung out too. Not that you or Will have to back away from it, but the persistent optimism might be a little whiff of weenie lol. Just an observation. Tough YTD.

As in Will? No I’d extend him more courtesy, brilliant meteorologist. Although if you pinched me hard enough I’d say this awful start has us all a little off our game and with a little snow-colored glasses on, even Darth Vader himself. Just human nature.

Listen if you dish it you take it a bit. It’s just a lesson in the idea that nothing has to be 100% or 0. There is a middle ground and sometimes you have to ebb with it. DIT talks in absolutes like things (weather) are already a given outcome, when they haven’t even occurred yet. Bad, dramatic look. I don’t want 40/70 going down that rathole.

Hah just busting chops DIT just like you do all the time. Drama can be your middle name you know. Take it in stride.