This could be the one that really tips the board. I think most were fine with the MidAtlantic having a sirloin when they thought this weekend was NE filet. If this one falls apart and the longer range looking meh, it could get ugly. And even though the GFS precip output and some parameters may be struggling, it’s done a pretty good job with overall development in this flow.
For nyc it is. Needed continued steady trends, fairly significant ones and as Will pointed out the usual ebb and flow is to go the other way late. This one wasn’t for the city.
Give me the cold and I’ll take my chances. It’ll find a way to snow be it a clipper, mauler, Archimbault as the trough lifts out whatever. But without the cold you have no chance and rarely is there a period in the MidAtlantic where it doesn’t snow because it’s too cold.
It’s just hitting me that we wait all year, through mud season, mosquitoes, severe weather, foliage, stick season, to get to the chance of a wintry holiday period and another one bites the dust again this year. It’s a long time to get another shot.
I don’t know, I think for C and S NE most realize it’s cutter city and above normal until closer to the late 20s of the month. Christmas looks fairly mild and potentially wet, but likely not white.