greenmtnwx
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Everything posted by greenmtnwx
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This isn’t a run of the mill SE ridge. It’s brought record temps in the last month, anomalously warm SSTs and stubborn to be scouted out. It’s going to need more than a -NAO
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Wnswmbkea Ensembles look better, but they have regressed as well. Bottom line is I don’t care how negative the NAO is, it’s not getting rid of that stubborn SE ridge without a western ridge developing. We need help with the PNA, otherwise the SE ridge is the most dominant feature.
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Euro backs up my thoughts. Ugly run nearing Christmas week. More backpedaling by models today.
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Just busting. We used to go up there. My daughter plays, she’ll be off to play in college in two years.
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You still going to those crappy tournaments at Progin Park?
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Does anyone really watch mens doccer?
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Lol
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We’ll see what happens but I’m just pointing out there are some risks. SE ridge going to a semi permanent feature this winter.
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This type of pattern won’t even save me. That southeast ridge is stronger and more persistent than anyone is giving credit for. This is a rains to Maine pattern for the next three weeks. December will come in well above normal temp wise and below normal snow.
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Forkys right about as much as a broken clock.
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All along it’s been fair to point out potential problems. Jerry was the only one that agreed lol. But that SE ridge is damn stubborn and going to dominate this winter. The Pacific is chaotic and after that block forms the available cold source is not very deep. Just some issues and guidance slowly trending less optimistic.
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Bozeman
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My son at Montana State can confirm and enjoy that.
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And possible with the stubborn strength of the SE ridge this year.
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Ensembles went the wrong way slightly, hopefully not a trend.
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That SE ridging is pretty darn stubborn on guidance as well. It might get flattened but seems to want to pop up and even retrograde NW. It seems as if at least early on here the SE ridge wants to be a feature this winter. At least on the op runs it wants to put most of us on the SE side of any systems.
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I think it’s fair to point out that things may not progress like we hope. There are signs that although we will get a block in Canada, it could be fairly transient and the ridge in east or at least zonal type flow resumes shortly after. There is a window but it may not be great.
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12z GFS looks pretty hideous short and long range.
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Ensembles seem to be trending toward a more zonal flow in the long range. The trough is finally forced to dig under the NAO block around 12/7-8 so we get colder in the east. It is initially helped by some EPO ridging but that has been washing out in the longer range in recent runs and we are left with a fairly cool zonal flow. All in all I would have to say the last day we’ve taken some steps backs but Will and the big dogs can chime in.
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Ops still look ugly. Cutter after cutter, cold, warm, wet repeat. When will these ensemble pattern runs start showing up in the sensible weather.
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I highly doubt we’ll to wall in nyc. It may have occurred as an anomaly but not the norm
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December not looking great on ensembles
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That is too warm of a look this early per say for 75% of the group
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That se ridge fear really starting to rear it’s head. Trough to Cabo?
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My son has on played in that a half dozen tines, no better place.
