greenmtnwx

4-5”

Which is not a big surprise. Persistence.

I agree. Just not sure for most of the snow starved sne group.

This year you want to see the heart of that map going through mass and the southern envelope well into southern NJ. Unfortunately we haven’t seen that all winter and depictions like this end up a bullseye over Quebec.

Of course. Kudos to you Jerry as you have seemed to take a guarded stance considering this years bias. You didn’t take the bait hook, line and sinker. Smart.

NAM looks like crap for Tuesday and the late week storm. Weak sauce tomorrow and then wagons north Thursday.

So you are saying I was right lol? Wagons north to Canada.

See yesterday

The seasonal bias needs way more weight than most seasons. If you see snow down into NYC then this forum night have a chance. Otherwise it’s far NNE, S CA, N ME stripe.

Hey I warned you lol

I’d say there is probably an equal chance right now that the NAO/50-50 press enough to deliver slop pike north and a good amount of snow from the SVT ski resorts north through VT/NH/ME versus the chance the RNA overwhelms as it has done much of the winter and this ends up a Southern Canada to northern ME deal.

That’ll work for ski areas but that same map at this timeframe has ended up in Mt. Tremblant all winter. Thus the skepticism when applying the seasonal bias.

When you see this in the 15 day it’s not a great sign.

Listen you know what I mean this year. You may not admit it but you get my point. It’ll leave it at that.

Yes you did.

Perhaps maybe just a little more emphasis that in this season, no matter how solid of a look numerical prediction shows, the biases of the SE ridge and eastern warmth are likely to overcome it.

All fair points.

This is all fair but I think the flip side of it is that some of the truly great mets and talents on the board this winter have taken the model weenie bait a little too easy. Part of forecasting and recognition is that the SE ridge is always stronger this season. Biting a little too easy on every 8 or 10 day “SWFE” into Pittsburgh event. The pattern sucks and is biased towards sucking, recognizing that I think became wise about a month ago. It’s understandable though and driven by the frustration of a historically bad winter.

Pattern sucks and isn’t getting better. Unless you consider better going from 60 to 40s and wet with maybe mixed bag of sh-t in mountains. Any other conjecture is whistling past the graveyard.

I’m surprised so many people did based on a few good op runs. Pattern looks the same shit as all winter.

And this was the point where q omega nailed the idea of the monster -nao hooking up with the se ridge. Not sure if he got a lucky shot in the dark but it’s made him right more than anyone else this winter. Jerry remembers

Skiing is a dying sport

Agree Jerry, that is positive nao SE ridge cutter city potential.

About 13” here near Stratton at the cabin. Pack around 20”.