Its a Breeze

So hear me out.... RIC is technically in southern Virginia, and therefore should not count. Also, with Labor Day being the end of summer, we can ignore any subsequent readings and close the contest as of yesterday.

We can thank Franklin for nearly single handedly accomplishing this He was getting a bit long in the tooth there. No longer tropical but it's fascinating watching Jose get absorbed into him. We don't see two named systems collide very often! Maybe we can get all four to kinda squish together...

It certainly hasn't reached the temperatures that the models (specifically the GFS) have shown. But for the most part, the idea of it getting warmer has generally come to fruition...

Looks like we'll have another chance next week to hit some of those numbers. Maybe. Likely a good chance that this'll be our last shot.

Hard to tell. It looks like a bit of dry air is trying to intrude right now which may be responsible for any slight jogs. And we'll see if that temporarily stems any rapid intensification for the time being...

Low end, for the NHC forecast to be on target we'll need the vast majority of the 5 more named storms, 4 of which become hurricanes, in the next couple weeks. High end, we'll need the majority of the 12 more named storms and 9 more hurricanes in the next couple weeks. Sure we can do the low end, it's just that in an El Nino year, it's not going to get easier moving forward. We're up against time. For Colorado State - we need 9 more name storms and 7 more hurricanes. Tough ask. **** Edit to add - Franklin is absolutely magnificent right now. Beautiful storm.

I didn't do too bad this year. Next year, I do not think we'll be as fortunate in being this "low", but we'll see.

You've said this before and, nothing has changed. It still remains 100% false. Dec.'s snow lasted til Christmas. Then we had snow on the ground from late Jan to late Feb. We were below average nearly the whole month of Feb.

Very cool indeed. I'm like a couple weeks late, and don't have vid/pic proof, but the last time we had thunderstorms around here I saw one! Took the dog out and as I'm waiting, I felt a couple drops. Looked up. Completely clear skies overhead. Didn't have to wait long to see flashes of lightning on the horizon though. I kept looking up because...that was cool! The clear sky would occasionally light up and a drop here and there from seemingly nothing. As I'm looking up there's a brief, streaky/stringy but very clear flash of red. My first thought was 'Wow a sprite!' Right? The Perseids were going on so then I briefly thought, or maybe a reddish meteor entered weirdly? But quickly dismissed that. Youtube'd a couple videos to confirm. Definitely a sprite.

Needs to move a tick or two west. And temps need to drop 50 degrees or so.

Truly an interesting, if not amazing experience. For me when it was happening and immediately after, it was about 99% wow/awesome and 1% nervousness - like 1) what are we supposed to be doing? hiding under a desk? running out the building? 2) that...was not weak.

Not downplaying this current heat wave, but believe it or not, the mid-west gets HOT, lol. And frequently. They have warmer extremes than we see here in the mid-Atlantic. La Crosse's all time high temp is hotter than DC's.

Looks like Gert is one of those 'screw it, just name it' storms . Don't think it actually reached TS strength but *shugs* Should disappear in an advisory or two.

Not just GFS, looks like most or all the models are showing pretty much the same. It should be, but it's not surprising that Cali may be affected by a tropical system before anyone on the east coast... And yeah, that is very rare. Looks like tropical storm Lidia in 2017 is the latest system that came close to that. Unless Hurricane Kay last year counts. Neither went directly into Cali.

Not sure if this counts, because it certainly wasn't cold. It was hot that day. Like 80s hot*. But having a snowball fight in the middle of summer is another of my favorite memories. Not around here, were in Yellowstone and of course multiple thousands of feet up. It of course wasn't fresh snow, but months old patchy icy slush, but still, it was the first time I had a snowball fight in shorts. *It was significantly cooler where these patches of snow were still around, but you didn't have to travel too far down to be back in the heat.

Models are too hot in the summer, and too cold in the winter. So it perfectly balances out

And on that note, I predict we will have between .01" and 70" of snow this winter. LOTs of dust coming off Africa right now. Atlantic will be quiet for a while. They should have stuck with the 30% chance of an above normal season. Or lower.

Finally, a spectacular day where the sky is actually blue! Feels amazing out

Looks like they're still betting on the warm waters. But what we're, for the most part, seeing is that the myriad of other factors that go into making a tropical system are of equal, if not greater importance. Definitely don't think we'll be that above average, if at all. We'll see though.

Looks like neither. Just moved south a bit. May push back this afternoon (per NWS)

Figured and meant to check. It was/is definitely a "hmm...the sky is not as blue as it should be" kind of morning. Feels spectacular though!

If we were going to hit 100+, we should be at least 90 by now. We'll try again tomorrow. If not tomorrow, then next year.

The hail caught me off guard as I wasn't expecting much of anything! It even started to accumulate. Can't lie, I giggled a bit...

Summer is more than one month. Can't ignore June. And yes, 90 is hot. But we can handle that. We haven't had many HOT unbearable days. 95+ days: BWI - 2, IAD - 1, DCA - 0 That'll change this week, but we really haven't been too bad...

And speaking of '94, I know this is about snow, but can we add the ice storms of that year to the list? Simply amazing. Especially when we had snow on top of the ice. Was still a kid so I had a blast with the countless slips and falls. I imagine for most, it'd be a different story now