Its a Breeze

I think we've, hopefully, learned our lesson by now. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 16 times, shame on me.

Well, it's going to change every 6 hours for the next 7 days, ultimately being a huge disappointment, so....depressed?

We've definitely been well above normal, but as jay said, no real torch. And cloudy and 60s have definitely outweighed any sunny and 60s.

To predict the next 70 degree day? I'll have to look it up, but I'm pretty sure for DCA this has been the worse winter in terms of no warm temps to compensate for the no snow. Meaning all of our previous tremendously horrible winters, we've at least had a couple of 70 degree days to sort of assuage the anger. DCA has had 1 such day since Nov. 12th. Cool enough to be annoying. Not cold enough to snow. Nothing worse.

Looks like we lost the JMA, can anyone confirm?

There's a song in there somewhere. About us being down this road before. Knowing exactly where it leads. And that's to nothing good. But we stay on it. Hoping this time will be different.

Wouldn't last January count? (but definitely agree though)

Astronomical Spring? For 50+ pages of that other thread there was so much hype of how perfect of a setup this weekend would be, only for it not to be. After countless 'nopes' I would love for our likely last real 10 day threat to actually work this time, but this season so far has to absolutely raise some sort of red flag. What is the confidence level that this time, it's real?

Well, we won't know for sure until Friday For the past few days though, it's variability hasn't really been all that different than any of the other models... (I looked at a week's worth of 0 and 12zs) Congrats to all who may actually see pity flakes on Friday. #notbitteratall

Yeah, but in terms of consistently showing significant snow it's currently, JMA vs the World. Not sure I like those odds...

This time last year we were 80 degrees with an actual legit shot of accumulating snow by week's end, that actually verified. 70s again the following week. That's how you do March, not this crap.

Wave 1 has the issue we've been dealing with all season, and there's no indication this is an exception.. ...lack of cold (enough) air.

So, do we use this thread to celebrate the death of La Nina? There's every indication we should be neutral by the end of this month (if we're not there already) How long before we know what kind of Nino we're getting ourselves into? Summer? Fall?

Pretty sure we had snow fall from the sky in 2015 and 2016 too, in April. Didn't amount to anything, but at least it fell. Don't mind April snows. The picturesqueness is greater than in March, though we get more then...

I do! Not sure where that came from, the not wanting to be in the bullseye at this point. Not being in the bullseye has been 100% correct so far. It's insane to wish the same.

^ None of this translates to shovelable snow... I was promised 3 feet of snow by the CMC. I want my 3 feet! We're sitting here waiting for the GFS cave from a cool rainstorm to a cold rainstorm. Within this time frame, and not even just this year, when was the last time we saw significant improvements to something we actually want? Not just upper air, but surface?

We shouldn't be waiting for anything at this point... In every thread, including the other MARCH long range thread, we've been pointed out to (and rightfully so) how the long range ensembles have been trash all season (Ops, with their cutters and bad solutions, have won in EVERY case the Ens have showed a favorable pattern) and not to hang on to them. At no point so far have they proven themselves to be any more reliable than the ops. Now, by some of those same people, we're told to trust them this time and get mad when people don't. Is that fair? At this point, I trust the squirrels in my backyard more than any Ens or Op. Also, "ur analysis" *snicker*

So....currently, 2 March 2023, 8:30PM UTC, we can see favorable conditions in the long range. But any legit storm threat is either just beyond the 10 day range, or simply not there. That's the current gist? yay. excited.

I don't know about divisive, I think all can agree it was an amazing storm overall and truly the Storm of the Century. But yeah, in terms of snow for most in this area, it left more to be desired. I don't recall what was in the forecast for us, but I know I wanted more! The winds with it were pretty cool around here....but was painful as you were sand blasted with sleet! The cold that followed the storm though, absolutely bone chilling.

In the words of the great Henry Patrick - "Give me 12"-24" of snow, or give me torch" With no chance of any significant snow in the the short term, I am honestly disappointed there's no sign of any sustained warmth. Screw any pity flakes that only adds salt to the wounds of our season of disappointments. Relying on a favorable pattern mid-March for a slight possibility of something popping up? ...why at that point? Does it add to next year's totals? "Let this winter die, kill it if you have to"

I was there, lol. It was one of the events that deepened my love for meteorology. I know all about it. Not just my backyard, I was thinking regionally, as this is the mid-Atlantic forum. We've had much better storms where the whole region did well, not just the west. Giving up snow for 5 years is insane. Giving up snow for 5 years for a storm that was just good to great, but unspectacular for the majority of the sub forum is....what?

Taken at face value this is illogical and makes absolutely zero sense. Especially given the fact that we've had multiple storms since (and numerous prior) that have been way better....by far. What are we missing?

Excited? lol, It's 10 days away. How many times have we been burned so far this season? Extremely EXTREMELY cautiously optimistic? Maybe....

https://wtop.com/weather-news/2023/02/dust-spotted-on-cars-west-of-d-c-where-did-it-originate/ Not sure if tweet stated it was from two states over, more like 7 to 8 states over.

*hooo hooo* That tonight it's going to disappear That tonight it's going to disappear