Its a Breeze

GFS says - say no more:

Just a FYSA for any chasers this year or next -

Which is incredible. 5 days (3rd - 7th) were so above average, that it made the whole month above normal. Had those days been 'normal', we would have been below average for the month.

In the Commander's loss, I'm comforted (not really) in the fact that, it was just about the only normal thing to happen this NFL week. Wow...

Perfection is within your reach! Good stuff.

I mean, it'll be like an hour of moderate rain yeah, but demolished?

Not sure about that. Irene I think will beat this one out.

It's definitely going to end up in the not even close category in terms of winds as Isabel had much stronger winds and much stronger winds over a wider area.

Don't know. She's a bit wild, exposing herself to all right now. She needs to get her life together a bit more before hitting rock/bottom of the outer banks...

What? Who doesn't like a week straight a raw wetness with a NE breeze?

Model agreement

I'm Ron Rivera's Washington Commanders. Late season runs that looks promising, but ultimately falls short

Preliminary but - Ugh, heartbreak. Looks like BWI hit 100 shattered any slim chance I had.... Congrats @WxUSAF with the near perfect score

Yes, and it looks like RIC came through! Don't know when it's official, but I'm seeing 100 at 3:10. Now...don't go any higher please https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KRIC

Help me Richmond, you're my only hope...

So hear me out.... RIC is technically in southern Virginia, and therefore should not count. Also, with Labor Day being the end of summer, we can ignore any subsequent readings and close the contest as of yesterday.

We can thank Franklin for nearly single handedly accomplishing this He was getting a bit long in the tooth there. No longer tropical but it's fascinating watching Jose get absorbed into him. We don't see two named systems collide very often! Maybe we can get all four to kinda squish together...

It certainly hasn't reached the temperatures that the models (specifically the GFS) have shown. But for the most part, the idea of it getting warmer has generally come to fruition...

Looks like we'll have another chance next week to hit some of those numbers. Maybe. Likely a good chance that this'll be our last shot.

Hard to tell. It looks like a bit of dry air is trying to intrude right now which may be responsible for any slight jogs. And we'll see if that temporarily stems any rapid intensification for the time being...

Low end, for the NHC forecast to be on target we'll need the vast majority of the 5 more named storms, 4 of which become hurricanes, in the next couple weeks. High end, we'll need the majority of the 12 more named storms and 9 more hurricanes in the next couple weeks. Sure we can do the low end, it's just that in an El Nino year, it's not going to get easier moving forward. We're up against time. For Colorado State - we need 9 more name storms and 7 more hurricanes. Tough ask. **** Edit to add - Franklin is absolutely magnificent right now. Beautiful storm.

I didn't do too bad this year. Next year, I do not think we'll be as fortunate in being this "low", but we'll see.

You've said this before and, nothing has changed. It still remains 100% false. Dec.'s snow lasted til Christmas. Then we had snow on the ground from late Jan to late Feb. We were below average nearly the whole month of Feb.

Very cool indeed. I'm like a couple weeks late, and don't have vid/pic proof, but the last time we had thunderstorms around here I saw one! Took the dog out and as I'm waiting, I felt a couple drops. Looked up. Completely clear skies overhead. Didn't have to wait long to see flashes of lightning on the horizon though. I kept looking up because...that was cool! The clear sky would occasionally light up and a drop here and there from seemingly nothing. As I'm looking up there's a brief, streaky/stringy but very clear flash of red. My first thought was 'Wow a sprite!' Right? The Perseids were going on so then I briefly thought, or maybe a reddish meteor entered weirdly? But quickly dismissed that. Youtube'd a couple videos to confirm. Definitely a sprite.

Needs to move a tick or two west. And temps need to drop 50 degrees or so.