NorthHillsWx

Just a crazy amount of energy flying around with both systems on the 12z. The 22nd storm trough now goes full negative tilt but the coastal development is strange to say the least. Mega cold plunge behind it incoming

Lol. I will point out GEFS ensembles do not have the storm at all. Snow mean hasn’t ticked up at all even with a few Op runs showing it. Still seems like a pipe dream at this point but there’s a chance

GEFS remained as cold as it’s been for the 21-24 period. Op has the storm but is actually much worse from an overall look with a quick breakdown of the western ridge allowing a very quick warmup around Christmas followed by cutters. Op runs are not to be trusted at all at range in this pattern. Are we going to see a 3-4 day cold shot followed by a major warmup or will we get several shots of cold after the initial one? Storm window remains centered around the 22nd (for any potential wintry). At least the timing remains very consistent

27.7 this morning with very heavy frost

Over the last couple weeks, I have been averaging morning readings 3-4 degrees cooler than RDU. That is a fairly significant spread given the limited distance. Afternoon temps have largely been similar

Fact the Euro is that close is good. All options with the storm are on the table but cold seems to be available regardless

Love the 0 degree readings over 1-2 foot deep snowpack in eastern NC Christmas Eve morning

12z GFS would feed families… That’s the potential this upcoming pattern has

Overnight modeling remains consistent for Christmas week. Cold signal remains strong as does a storm signal. Talk of cross polar flow with a Rocky Mountain ridge is why folks are optimistic. That’s the setup we want. Nothing guarantees winter weather here but the players are on the field and it’s not a merry torchmas year

1.62” storm total. Low of 28.9 this morning. Lots of frost and wet ground from yesterday is frozen

Go Tigers! After winning on a 56 yard FG the way our special teams have performed, a double digit snowfall no longer seems impossible

Euro too. Canadian to a similar extent. Nice to see some level of consistency

12z GFS looks great 20-25th. All the ingredients are there. Pattern is good, wish there was more southern jet energy but miller B or a clipper bombing out with enough blocking to work seems to me what our storm mode would be. Fast paced pattern is an understatement but blocking seems to set up with a ridge over the Rockies at least giving us a 3-5 day window to score

Already pushing an inch of rain today with that storm that just pushed through

GFS is legitimately all over the place. This time it chose cold and a coastal bomb. What will GFS roulette reveal next time? I’ve been saying for awhile but I’ll say it again: Christmas week is interesting. Hints of southern stream energy and a cold push with NAO trending neutral to negative. A storm is brewing in the 20-23rd timeframe

0.31” since yesterday

Everything about this winter is different than the last few. A fast pattern, no real semi permanent SER, better look PAC. Not saying we score but this isn’t going to be without opportunities. Heck, some of us already are on the board. Christmas week continues to have my attention

18.6 first teens of the year

22.6, 12. If that wind had calmed earlier we’d be well into the teens!

Looking at obs mine was most pronounced with initial cooling but Sanford and Louisburg had almost identical swings and the timing aligned perfectly with what my station saw. I’m guessing the wind calmed in the evening allowing for a period of radiational cooling then picked up for a period overnight before slackening off again before daybreak

Interesting temperature spikes last night. We got down to 36 at 11, rose to almost 45 by 2, then fell for a second low of 39 right before sunrise before rapidly rising to 49 now. I’m guessing that’s related to inconsistent wind through the night at my location

Christmas week looks interesting on the Euro as well

High pressure centered directly overhead and near perfect radiational cooling conditions. Teens into SC is impressive for Dec 4

20.2 was the low this morning here. Up a degree now. Looks like most areas around here are in the teens

The last part of that AFD mentioning RDU is hilarious: Expect clear skies and very cold temperatures with exceptional radiational cooling in the arctic air mass (frost points in the teens). Most lows in the 15-20 range, except for RDU.