dallen7908

Short answer: Through January 31, it is better than 31% of winters but only earns a D+ grade. We've had 10 days with mean temperatures of 32 or less, 9.1" of snow, no big storms, and 8 days with 1" or more of snow on the ground The subjective rating system is (#Days with T<+32) + Snowfall (inches) + MECs bonus (1 point for each inch a 1-day snowfall exceeds 5") + (#Days with >= 1" on the ground) baltimore Rank YEAR T<=32 Snow MECSb D>1" Points Grade PCTL 1 1917-1918 47.0 32.5 6.0 27.0 112.5 A++ 100 2 1904-1905 39.0 35.1 5.4 31.0 110.5 A++ 99 3 1960-1961 38.0 30.1 7.0 32.0 107.1 A++ 98 4 1903-1904 48.0 21.4 1.0 27.0 97.4 A+ 98 5 1921-1922 22.0 40.1 19.5 14.0 95.6 A 97 6 1995-1996 29.0 35.9 13.5 15.0 93.4 A 96 7 1924-1925 25.0 23.0 6.0 30.0 84.0 A- 95 8 2009-2010 29.0 27.0 12.0 13.0 81.0 A- 95 9 1939-1940 32.0 16.5 1.0 30.0 79.5 B+ 94 10 1976-1977 46.0 11.1 0.0 19.0 76.1 B+ 93 11 1909-1910 27.0 25.5 5.2 18.0 75.7 B+ 92 12 2015-2016 15.0 30.0 20.5 10.0 75.5 B+ 92 13 1944-1945 29.0 14.4 2.0 30.0 75.4 B+ 91 14 1981-1982 35.0 17.2 1.1 21.0 74.3 B+ 90 15 1962-1963 34.0 15.7 0.0 24.0 73.7 B+ 89 16 1963-1964 29.0 20.0 5.8 18.0 72.8 B+ 89 17 1929-1930 29.0 19.4 4.0 20.0 72.4 B+ 88 18 2002-2003 36.0 15.0 2.4 15.0 68.4 B 87 19 1999-2000 21.0 23.3 10.6 12.0 66.9 B 86 20 1934-1935 22.0 21.3 7.5 15.0 65.8 B 85 Rank YEAR T<=32 Snow MECSb D>1" Points Grade PCTL 21 1989-1990 27.0 14.5 0.0 24.0 65.5 B 85 22 1910-1911 26.0 17.8 2.5 19.0 65.3 B 84 23 1938-1939 20.0 18.6 3.6 23.0 65.2 B 83 24 1969-1970 33.0 15.1 1.1 15.0 64.2 B 82 25 2003-2004 30.0 18.0 0.0 16.0 64.0 B 82 26 1967-1968 31.0 15.5 3.4 13.0 62.9 B- 81 27 1987-1988 22.0 20.2 2.5 18.0 62.7 B- 80 28 1935-1936 26.0 15.3 0.0 21.0 62.3 B- 79 29 2010-2011 37.0 11.9 2.6 10.0 61.5 B- 79 30 1955-1956 37.0 9.9 0.0 14.0 60.9 B- 78 31 1966-1967 22.0 20.8 6.0 12.0 60.8 B- 77 32 1945-1946 23.0 15.0 2.6 20.0 60.6 B- 76 33 1965-1966 27.0 21.4 6.0 6.0 60.4 B- 76 34 1986-1987 16.0 25.1 8.4 9.0 58.5 B- 75 35 1977-1978 34.0 13.5 0.0 11.0 58.5 B- 74 36 1911-1912 25.0 14.4 0.0 18.0 57.4 B- 73 37 1919-1920 34.0 7.2 0.0 16.0 57.2 B- 73 38 2013-2014 31.0 12.7 0.1 13.0 56.8 B- 72 39 1902-1903 26.0 13.8 0.0 17.0 56.8 B- 71 40 1916-1917 22.0 16.4 0.0 16.0 54.4 C+ 70 Rank YEAR T<=32 Snow MECSb D>1" Points Grade PCTL 41 1896-1897 29.0 10.9 0.0 14.0 53.9 C+ 69 42 1983-1984 32.0 8.4 0.0 13.0 53.4 C+ 69 43 1908-1909 15.0 18.5 0.9 18.0 52.4 C+ 68 44 2000-2001 39.0 5.0 0.0 7.0 51.0 C+ 67 45 1898-1899 26.0 15.6 0.0 9.0 50.6 C+ 66 46 1953-1954 16.0 19.6 1.2 13.0 49.8 C+ 66 47 1927-1928 18.0 15.8 9.3 6.0 49.1 C+ 65 48 1947-1948 23.0 13.0 0.0 12.0 48.0 C+ 64 49 1993-1994 30.0 7.8 0.0 10.0 47.8 C 63 50 1961-1962 32.0 12.4 0.0 3.0 47.4 C 63 51 1964-1965 23.0 9.1 0.0 14.0 46.1 C 62 52 1970-1971 30.0 10.4 0.0 5.0 45.4 C 61 53 1942-1943 23.0 11.6 0.0 10.0 44.6 C 60 54 1932-1933 12.0 14.8 5.5 12.0 44.3 C 60 55 1958-1959 37.0 2.6 0.0 3.0 42.6 C 59 56 2017-2018 28.0 6.5 0.0 8.0 42.5 C 58 57 1984-1985 23.0 9.2 0.0 10.0 42.2 C 57 58 2021-2022 16.0 13.3 1.8 11.0 42.1 C 56 59 1957-1958 21.0 11.0 2.8 6.0 40.8 C 56 60 2004-2005 24.0 7.6 0.0 8.0 39.6 C- 55 Rank YEAR T<=32 Snow MECSb D>1" Points Grade PCTL 61 1980-1981 32.0 4.3 0.0 3.0 39.3 C- 54 62 1901-1902 28.0 7.4 0.6 3.0 39.0 C- 53 63 1925-1926 23.0 6.2 0.0 9.0 38.2 C- 53 64 1894-1895 20.0 5.0 0.0 13.0 38.0 C- 52 65 1914-1915 25.0 5.2 0.0 7.0 37.2 C- 51 66 2018-2019 20.0 9.5 0.0 7.0 36.5 C- 50 67 1950-1951 27.0 5.5 0.0 4.0 36.5 C- 50 68 1906-1907 22.0 7.5 0.0 7.0 36.5 C- 49 69 1998-1999 19.0 7.0 0.0 10.0 36.0 C- 48 70 2014-2015 23.0 6.4 0.0 6.0 35.4 C- 47 71 1933-1934 19.0 8.3 0.0 8.0 35.3 C- 47 72 1956-1957 16.0 10.9 0.0 8.0 34.9 C- 46 73 2008-2009 29.0 2.7 0.0 3.0 34.7 C- 45 74 1996-1997 27.0 5.5 0.0 2.0 34.5 C- 44 75 1968-1969 30.0 4.4 0.0 0.0 34.4 C- 44 76 1926-1927 27.0 2.8 0.0 4.0 33.8 C- 43 77 1973-1974 18.0 9.5 1.0 5.0 33.5 C- 42 78 1978-1979 18.0 9.4 0.0 6.0 33.4 C- 41 79 1900-1901 18.0 6.5 0.0 7.0 31.5 D+ 40 80 1951-1952 22.0 7.1 0.0 2.0 31.1 D+ 40 Rank YEAR T<=32 Snow MECSb D>1" Points Grade PCTL 81 1985-1986 26.0 2.6 0.0 2.0 30.6 D+ 39 82 2007-2008 19.0 7.2 0.0 4.0 30.2 D+ 38 83 1899-1900 20.0 3.2 0.0 7.0 30.2 D+ 37 84 1954-1955 26.0 2.7 0.0 1.0 29.7 D+ 37 85 1982-1983 14.0 8.4 1.7 5.0 29.1 D+ 36 86 1897-1898 16.0 8.0 0.0 4.0 28.0 D+ 35 87 1988-1989 16.0 6.9 0.0 5.0 27.9 D+ 34 88 1943-1944 15.0 5.9 0.0 7.0 27.9 D+ 34 89 1915-1916 17.0 5.9 0.0 5.0 27.9 D+ 33 90 1948-1949 7.0 11.0 1.8 8.0 27.8 D+ 32 91 1975-1976 24.0 2.4 0.0 1.0 27.4 D+ 31 92 2023-2024 10.0 9.1 0.0 8.0 27.1 D+ 31 93 1990-1991 13.0 9.0 0.0 5.0 27.0 D+ 30 94 1922-1923 13.0 9.6 0.0 4.0 26.6 D+ 29 95 1905-1906 10.0 6.9 0.7 9.0 26.6 D+ 28 96 2005-2006 14.0 6.5 0.0 5.0 25.5 D+ 27 97 1979-1980 16.0 5.1 0.0 4.0 25.1 D+ 27 98 1940-1941 12.0 7.0 0.0 6.0 25.0 D+ 26 99 1991-1992 21.0 2.2 0.0 1.0 24.2 D+ 25 100 1952-1953 12.0 8.2 0.0 3.0 23.2 D 24 Rank YEAR T<=32 Snow MECSb D>1" Points Grade PCTL 101 1946-1947 9.0 9.8 0.0 4.0 22.8 D 24 102 1907-1908 13.0 4.7 0.0 5.0 22.7 D 23 103 1972-1973 21.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.0 D 22 104 2020-2021 12.0 5.9 0.0 2.0 19.9 D 21 105 1895-1896 17.0 1.2 0.0 1.0 19.2 D 21 106 2006-2007 16.0 0.9 0.0 2.0 18.9 D 20 107 1930-1931 15.0 2.8 0.0 1.0 18.8 D 19 108 1974-1975 10.0 5.5 0.0 3.0 18.5 D 18 109 1937-1938 15.0 2.2 0.0 1.0 18.2 D 18 110 1893-1894 14.0 1.2 0.0 3.0 18.2 D 17 111 1941-1942 13.0 3.1 0.0 2.0 18.1 D 16 112 1928-1929 16.0 1.1 0.0 1.0 18.1 D 15 113 1959-1960 14.0 1.8 0.0 1.0 16.8 D 15 114 1923-1924 12.0 2.4 0.0 2.0 16.4 D 14 115 2001-2002 12.0 2.3 0.0 2.0 16.3 D 13 116 2012-2013 8.0 4.3 0.0 3.0 15.3 D- 12 117 1971-1972 12.0 2.1 0.0 1.0 15.1 D- 11 118 1992-1993 11.0 2.9 0.0 0.0 13.9 D- 11 119 2019-2020 11.0 1.8 0.0 1.0 13.8 D- 10 120 2016-2017 13.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 13.7 D- 9 Rank YEAR T<=32 Snow MECSb D>1" Points Grade PCTL 121 2011-2012 9.0 1.3 0.0 3.0 13.3 D- 8 122 1918-1919 12.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 13.3 D- 8 123 1920-1921 12.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 13.1 D- 7 124 1912-1913 5.0 4.9 0.0 3.0 12.9 D- 6 125 1994-1995 10.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 10.5 D- 5 126 1997-1998 8.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 9.1 D- 5 127 1913-1914 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 D- 4 128 1936-1937 6.0 2.8 0.0 0.0 8.8 D- 3 129 2022-2023 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 F 2 130 1931-1932 2.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 3.7 F 2 131 1949-1950 3.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 3.5 F 1

I keep reminding myself that during El Niño years, February 8th is apparently the date when we (a mean of several Mid-Atlantic sites) are half through with our snow for the winter.

I should probably put something together but I was just going with the following:

Different climate up your way; the longest recorded stretch with snow on the ground in DC is 29 days from Jan 20 to Feb 17, 1961

I know. My first thought was that (that) was a lower bound. They need to change the title to something less judgmental. I also find it amusing how excited we get when the model spits out an additional 0.05" of precipitation for our snow-deprived backyards.

You'll live in a different world. Gorgeous here. Dog sunbathing on our south-facing deck. 41.3 degrees.

... but this one will work because it's right on the edge of the January 20th - February 20th EL Nino window for big snows! The GGEM does a pretty good job of predicting the 500 hPa pattern ... but yeah the solutions it shows at the surface rarely verify without support from other models.

Hopefully the EPS and its parent will re-join the party later today

Go to Tropical Tidbits Northern Hemisphere Projection GFS 500mb Geopotential height and MSLP Click animate and you can examine how the MSLP tracks the height pattern

If you really want us to stop worrying after each run, you should have stopped after one sentence! (But I know what you mean).

As several have pointed some of the model storms are still ongoing at the end of the 06 UTC EPS run

February 24 of that month when 0.58" fell at BWI was the only day with more than 0.03" of precipitation. https://weatherspark.com/h/m/147101/1977/2/Historical-Weather-in-February-1977-at-Baltimore-Washington-International-Airport-Maryland-United-States

Yes, it's nice to see that the 50th PCTL highs for the DC/Baltimore area from the 00 UTC EPS are sub-40 from January 14 through the 22nd. When cold air is present a minor system could pop up in the medium-range and break the 1" drought at DCA and BWI. That said, I'm still hoping to reel in a big dog detected in the long range.

Yes, that storm track and area covered would be a dream come true for New England. It's been a brutal winter for the nordic resorts. Many of which have been closed since just before XMAS. Some never opened. Bretton Woods hasn't opened yet. Bolton Valley had early storms but never got around to laying down tracks and then ... Jackson, Mt. Van Hoevenberg, and Craftsbury have a few kms open - all man-made snow.

GFS shows a parade of storms - Drought may be over. Storm 1: Sat-Sun Storm 2: Tues-Wed Storm 3: Sat Storm 4 Tue Storm 5 Sat - that's the one currently "forecast" to give us low-landers snow.

Less precipitation?

Regional models are very difficult to initialize and obtain boundary conditions for. They shouldn't be looked at in a vacuum. They are best when used as an ensemble member.

Final update on the probability time series at DCA. As you know this doesn't mean that DCA has a 60% chances of an inch or more of snow; typically 1" from the model corresponds to a few tenths in ground truth under marginal conditions. The 3" probability curve may better represent the chances of an inch or more of snow. In answer to someone's question from yesterday, I only did this for a location near DCA.

For DCA, the percent of 06 UTC EPS members giving DCA 1, 3, 6, and 12 inches of snow in the next 144 hours was 56, 30, 18, and 4%. The percentages for the 00 UTC run were 84, 60, 30, and 6.

Percent of EPS members giving DCA >+ 1", 3", 6", and 12" of snow for upcoming period over the last 6 00 and 12 UTC runs (00 UTC on the 30th to 12 UTC on the 1st) 1" [16, 12, 36, 36, 72, 76] 3" [06, 06, 22, 24, 50, 46] 6" [02, 06, 10, 12, 30,30] 12"[00, 02, 00, 04, 10,10]

inch of snow ... and stay around long enough to give the weather observer at BWI a chance to measure it.

Thanks for the plot. Thoughts: 1) I wonder where he got the snow data for 1876-1895 or so. 2) February 8th for the mid-point - a few days later than I expected but certainly in line with memory. 3) The changes in slope are interesting do they just fall out of the data or did he do some piece-wise fitting? 4) The snowless gaps in late December and mid-January are a bit sad. 5) It looks like prime time is January 20th - February 20th - no surprise there! 6) I wonder how many winters are classified as moderate-to-strong El Niño winters and how different the plot would be during other years. Would the peak be a week earlier?

If it's any comfort (as you know) our climatology gets reset every 10 years and I suspect at least one year in the 30's will top 10". Also, the warming of the oceans will likely slow in the near future as much of the sulfate has already been scrubbed and we'll only have greenhouse gases to blame. Plus if we live long enough the PDO will become favorable at some point. My concern is that if this continues, all of the "it could snow in this pattern" posters will get discouraged and we'll be left with a site filled with images from 300+ hour GFS runs. Wait ...