The following is from the Capital Weather Gang's 5:31 AM bulletin. Any idea as to why their level of confidence is "low"? Is it simply the fact that the precipitation isn't expected to arrive until very early Thursday? Is it concerns about the precipitation type? Suppression? the UHI? To my untrained eye it seems like this system is more straightforward than most. It is mostly overrunning and doesn't rely on an on-time phase, dynamic cooling, or a well positioned CCB. I mean if they use "low" here what adjectives are left for most storms.
Thursday should start with more snow, but some wintry mix remains possible, especially south of the District. We may see a precipitation break for a few hours in the afternoon as highs hold only in the 30s. Thursday night should see precipitation pick back up again. It’s most likely to be in the form of snow as temperatures fall into the 20s, but mixed precipitation cannot be ruled out. Confidence: Low