dallen7908

Perhaps some give on the GFS side too. Verbatim, the surface layer push of cold air to DCA on the GFS is weaker for the 06 UT initialization than 00 UT according to Cobb output. For DCA, the decrease in temperatures from 1 to 7 AM on the 4th is now 51.0 to 28.3 degrees; it was 36.2 to 25.4 degrees at 00 UT For DCA, the onset of freezing rain is pushed back to 5 AM on the 4th from 3 AM. The total amount of freezing rain decreases from 0.60 to 0.49 The amount of freezing rain with sub 26 degree temperatures decreases from 0.27 to 0.00.

Well then perhaps you should change your user name. I don't recall a major ice storm here since 1994. Much different story for many others in this forum This is meaningless but one of our biggest snow falls in the last 30-years was forecast to be freezing rain 5 days out.

Cobb output from GFS at DCA shows the freezing rain beginning at 10Z (5 AM on Friday) on the 4th and ending at 00Z on the 5th (7 PM on Friday). 0.4" with the temperature below 29 degrees. 0.1" with the temperature below 26 degrees. At Dulles the freezing rain would begin at 8Z (3 AM on Friday) and end at the same time as DCA. 0.6" with temperatures of <29 degrees; almost 0.5" with temperatures below 26 degrees.

1/3 7.5 1/7 2.25 1/16 2.25 1/28 0.5 12.5" for the year - likely just below the median for College Park with 6 weeks of chances to go

First flurries in College Park

A primary purpose of the off hours runs is to provide initial and boundary conditions for European mesoscale models.

Who knows If this still exists as the weekly cycle in aerosol emissions is weaker than it used to be

Earlier today when I saw the 4" for your location, I was wondering if you had sent them a topographical shape file

It's a humbling reminder of how poor many drivers in this area are - that they feel the need to put out a "Percent Chance of 0.1 Snow" product.

996 L over Tallahassee at 12 UT Sunday (Current run) 1006L over Jacksonville at 12 UT Sunday (00 UT run)

The EPO goes "way" negative week 2. Similar GEFS plot.

Good point - bad post by me. Why is the 12z GFS a dream in the extended? Verbatim, most of our area gets ~1" of snow during the next 384 hours. I assume you like the upper air pattern etc.

Where did all of our model snow go? Clockwise from upper left (18 UT yesterday, 00 UT today, 06 UT today, 12 UT today) Through 12 UT next Friday; GFS

1/7/22 2.25" 9.75" for the season

"south" College Park 1/3/22 7.5"

Cobb output for DCA from GFS (This would be one wild hour). Be skeptical, very skeptical ... YYMMDD FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF 220103/12Z 24 02010KT 29.4F SNOW 15:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.315 https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kdca

Trend at 700 hPa from the GEM; 36 hours ago DC was caught in the middle between the southern and northern streams. Now it is (forecast to be) well within the southwest flow associated with the SS. Winds over MO have shifted from northwesterly to north-northwesterly emphasizing the strengthening of the vorticity max; allowing for southwesterly rather than westerly flow to its east

From the Fearless Forecast on White Grass's home page: "While all-time records are never open-court slam dunks, our 3.0 inch lowest Canaan Valley 78-year record December snowfall record is truly in jeopardy of being broken this year. I anticipate very little if any more snow between now and when the books close for this month in 5 days on December 31." I guess I should have expected this when what I wanted for XMAS was a post-holiday trip to the Valley. Hopefully, "my" jinx ends before my planned XC skiing trip to upstate New York over MLK. I have the Laurentian mountains in mind for next winter ... Conditions will be wonderful today at the Center; trails 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, Montée St-Hilaire, 11, 12, 13, 14 North, 31, loops 36-24 and Pont Georges and 25 will be available and groomed for both classic and skating. 5 Fat Bike run and 2 snowshoe paths will also be open.

3 of the 31 GEFS members give us measurable snow during that period with one of the members giving us 2 1/2". Let's watch this improve with time (I hope) 25% of the EPS members show a near-zero or slightly positive PNA by late on the 8th!

CPC is skeptical that any pattern change will be more than transient. After seasonal temperatures in week 2 (January 1-8), their 3-4 week outlook for January 8-21 (see link and below) suggests that the southeast ridge will be a bit muted in week 3 before strengthening once again in week 4. No reason for too much concern as they only give us a 55% chance of above normal (1990-2020) temperatures, which may be closer to a coin flip with respect to a mean centered on this year. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ "A manual blend of dynamical and statistical model guidance favors a continuation of the negative PNA and negative NAO patterns, showing up as a pair of ridges south of the Aleutians and over Greenland, and troughs over the West and the North Atlantic. A persistent ridge also remains over the Southeast, which is consistent with La Nina conditions. While the statistical guidance depicts more troughing and cold air intrusion into the eastern US, these tools are based on a more progressive and canonical MJO evolution than what is currently observed."

Yes it showed up on my YouTube feed. Hard to beat the 1993 storm in this area - didn't quite get to a foot of snow but being able to walk across the backyard on top of the snow/sleet drifts made up for it

While stretching this morning, I watched a fascinating documentary called the Storm of the Century: the Blizzard of 1949 by Wyoming PBS - a must watch if you love snow

Forecast highs from the GEFS and EPS for January 3-5th are predicted to be in the upper 30s for many of us. With above normal temperatures likely for the southeast, waves moving along the strong thermal gradient could be interesting - and maybe we'll be on the "right" side.

I'd feel quite a bit more optimistic if that was the model median as opposed to mean; I've never understood why they don't plot that instead

Perhaps in early January as the -NAO weakens while the EPO trends or remains slightly negative - certainly some precipitation chances