Kmlwx

12z HRRR is lame for DC. Will see what the NAM nest shows in the next hour or so. The 0z FV3 hires was decent enough.

If it can get going quicker than forecast - it will probably go a little more poleward versus the current cone.

Storms have knocked me all the way back to 74 degrees. It was a bit toasty in my bedroom last night without any cooling storms.

At the very least we should cash in on remnants. Getting something beefy to our area is always a long long long shot.

A severe thunderstorm is 58mph wind or hail to quarter size or higher (or both) OR tornado.

Good cluster of damage reports near Damascus/Woodfield from earlier. LWX is going warn-happy today again. Active day in the books! Seems mainly a rain threat for MBY now.

PW and Fauquier warned for 80mph and golf ball. ETA: It's pouring here. Thunder too. Sub severe though.

And there's LWX with the huge polygon again. Warning stretches from like Wheaton down to Manassas.

Warning update for MoCo also holding the 70mph text MDC027-031-132115- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0402.000000T0000Z-210813T2115Z/ Howard MD-Montgomery MD- 509 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL HOWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES... At 508 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Potomac, or near Rockville, moving east at 5 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

TDCA has a little pixel above 50mph. Could be pulshing up a bit.

That warning for Fairfax/MoCo is indicated for 70mph - but I'm not seeing a whole lot of good velocity scans. Still hunting, though

Good wind signature showing up just north of Great Falls, VA heading into MoCo.

Definitely feels like the kind of year when we get some sort of major moisture injection from a TC-remnant system. The pockets of super heavy rain have been in small/isolated pockets - but if we keep getting these pulse rainers - FFG could really come down if a big areawide rain event comes through sooner rather than later.

50kft+ echo tops in Howard County now.

I feel like these shear-less days tend to yield one super isolated but huge cell that puts down a swath of 70-80mph winds but leaves the rest of us with nada. This certainly has been a widespread week of all hazards (except tornadoes). Monday was a heck of a deluge IMBY, and I think I've gotten at least some semblance of a storm on every day except yesterday. Today looks like it'll perform too. I guess that's what 95+ degree temps and soupy air can do for us! ML lapse rates haven't been super trashy like they usually are - so maybe that also contributed. Wayyyy too far out to speculate - but have to wonder if this week is the start of a very wet pattern that might have some tropical threats mixed in the next month or so.

Weather radio has now gone off 3 times back to back. Busy day for LWX it seems. Lots of distant thunder being heard here in Colesville now. TDWRs have some nice pockets of wind with the complex inching closer to the metro area.

Another Severe T'storm Warning for MoCo, Howard for 70mph winds. Lots of enhanced warnings this week from LWX.

This week has produced a decent amount of severe reports for a week when we didn't get above a slight risk. Sneaky severe!

74mph gust at the Warrenton Airport!!!!

2 N Germantown: 50knot (58mph) gust.

The area near Darnestown to Potomac and vicinity looks similarly placed as the PG/East MoCo area did earlier in the week. Backbuilding could keep them in heavy rain for some time. Probably going to be some cases of high water or flooding out that way.

The western half of MoCo is getting smacked. Looks like a soaker as well.

Already outflow from the MoCo cell (now warned).

Cell(s) firing now along the Potomac heading into MoCo. A couple strikes already being detected. Let's see if they grow.

Outflow visible on radar from SW of Frederick down towards the Front Royal area.