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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Severe watch out.
  2. Kmlwx
    Initiation in the vicinity of the higher terrain in VA.
  3. Kmlwx
    HRRR brings activity in - but it's not all that intense - but wonder if it is a result of the overmixing of the model that @high risk has mentioned.
  4. Kmlwx
    DCAPE is lower than previous days at least at this early hours. PWATS are 1.9 - soupy!
  5. Kmlwx
    MEH! Would rather it go west of us That's a wild run!
  6. Kmlwx
    Would be a fun Friday if so.
  7. Kmlwx
    Had a good streak this week. I'm okay with a dud day at this point. Almost time to start looking for east coast tropical too OT - but I really hope we are done with 95+ after this heat wave ends. Past August 15th I'm going into fall mode and hunting the first fall cold front.
  8. Kmlwx
    Radar is void of anything. Thinking today will probably end with nothing for most of us.
  9. Kmlwx
    Even ML lapse rates are good...
  10. Kmlwx
    Some really beefy instability out there today. Imagine if there was a defined and focused trigger...and shear...
  11. Kmlwx
    Saw a brief 60-65mph pixel on one of the TDWRs. The worst definitely missed me in Colesville just south. Pretty good string of storm days around the area. While not every locale has been hit daily - many are cashing in.
  12. Kmlwx
    Lightning strike to a house in Gaithersburg. Lots of damage reports spanning from around North Bethesda to the Holy Cross Hospital area.
  13. Kmlwx
    Radar looks pretty meh for that metro area warning - granted I haven't looked at the TDWRs
  14. Kmlwx
    http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/NOAACIMSS_PROBSEVERE
  15. Kmlwx
    Some big a$$ polygons today now from LWX. That placefile for GR that EJ sent a few weeks ago (maybe longer?) is spectacular. Love how conservative it is.
  16. Kmlwx
    The TDWRs have some sort of boundary in an arc shape from near Laurel to the eastern side of the beltway and then down towards ADW. Is that the bay breeze? Movement seems a little off for the bay breeze, though.
  17. Kmlwx
    Pretty good example of outflow in VA - everything behind that arc of outflow between say Middleburg and just N of Culpeper has gotten very meh-worthy. But north and south of that are still cranking away with good cells.
  18. Kmlwx
    Latest radar interpretation: Cell heading for Culpeper is pretty nice looking. And the Boonsboro area cell still is packing a punch. Purcellville cell has a hail marker now - so that may be pulsing up. Everything between there and the Culpeper cell, though looks meh.
  19. Kmlwx
    Know you've mentioned this in past events too. Something is whacky with my hygrometer it seems - reading an 84 Td right now
  20. Kmlwx
    Not often you see solid warnings from M/D line now all the way down to Madison, VA.
  21. Kmlwx
    Probably not a ton of population out there. I went to a cabin in Sperryville a few years ago and barely could get one bar unless I was on top of the ridge. I think they've added a cell tower in recent years...
  22. Kmlwx
    We've talked anecdotally about it in years past - but radar kind of looks like the longggg lines of continuous storms from the 90s and early 2000s. That kicker @Eskimo Joe - mentioned earlier today is definitely putting the work in thus far. We'll see what happens to the east...the HRRR kind of had a tendency to kill off storms as they approached the metros - but IMO it hasn't been great the past few days. Perhaps the pulsey nature is throwing guidance for a loop a bit with no organized trigger.
  23. Kmlwx
    Pretty much solid warnings from the M/D line down to Warrenton. Warning happy day.
  24. Kmlwx
    Outflow evident on radar near Warrenton. Would expect everything behind that to be more of a heavy rain threat for now. Cells to watch now are up near Boonsboro, and then any new developing ones.
  25. Kmlwx
    Complex heading for Boonsboro area is pulsing up now. Warned for 70mph now.
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