Kmlwx
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Everything posted by Kmlwx
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Metro area may want to keep one eye on that stuff running from Warrenton arcing down to Fredericksburg - just looks like heavy rain right now - but that could easily go spinny too.
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The corridor running from Colonial Beach up to Hughesville in Maryland has been SPINNY today.
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Everyyyything wants to spin down along the Potomac in Southern MD. Couple pretty nice looking couplets now.
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It's trying! But perhaps it's fighting for dominance with the two cells east of the fall line and that activity up in Loudoun Co. Not too concerned about that little one unless it can grow upscale. That Charles/PG cell looks nice, though. Heavy rain down near Culpeper could be problematic for flooding in spots later if it holds together.
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TOR warning for Charles/PG on a tiny cell (not much bigger than the Clifton one). Think things could be interesting here in the next little while. Seems even the small stuff is spinny.
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The stuff near Clifton, VA, although tiny - does look interesting. Will be curious to see if that can grow a bit. Almost looks like a baby supercell. Radar is looking messy otherwise - not good for areas that are waterlogged from this morning.
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The stuff to watch for DC for the moment is that puny stuff near Manassas. Beefy stuff elsewhere.
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It's also worth noting that Philly is under cloud cover right now as well. Ultimately, they will have more time before storms get to them (perhaps more aligned with peak heating) - nonetheless, I'd still be on guard east of a line running from roughly Frederick, MD down to LWX to Fredericksburg.
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Ian over on Twitter is also debbing the threat a bit (saying it may be shifted NE of us). I get these opinions - though at the same time mesoanalysis DOES show 500-1000 MLCAPE in the area. That should be enough to sustain some sort of threat. Sure - best may be NE of us - but I'm not ready to deb at all yet. Breaks in the clouds are close enough to many of us as well.
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If the weenie jumpers are this bad on Sept 1 - can you imagine what this place is going to be like on December 5th when we are getting shafted by a minor snow event?
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Point accepted. However - we did just have a pretty well formed supercell track over a large portion of the area during the overnight period - with no sun.
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Little mini showers popping around me. If this keeps up we will be socked in all day.
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Wonder if there was any wind damage from the supercell that was not reported due to the time of day. We may see some LSRs later for damage incurred this AM.
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For all the crap people give the HRRR - it really did nail this supercell in terms of time of day AND location for the most part. Whether it was a blind squirrel finding a nut or a legit win who knows.
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It's continued to look pretty decent. However, LWX hasn't warned it at all. The rotation at times has been pretty broad and not "tight" - we'll see
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1667.html
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Radar estimates somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.5-2.3 inches fell during that storm IMBY. That's almost as much as some of the models had for me for the entire even - just goes to show you that while global and even mesoscale model output is a good guide - individual cells/clusters can boom or bust your total pretty easily. Add in whatever comes later today (and any showery stuff in between) and we could easily get some beefy rain totals even though guidance had the worst flood threat NW.
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We've seen LWX warn similar storms. If it keeps up another scan or two I bet it'll get tor warned. Looks decent on the TDWRs AND the KLWX radars.
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Area near Glenarden, MD showing signs of cycling up. We'll see if it can sustain this time. That may warrant a TOR in short order if it continues.
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Having the TDWRs is so nice in these cases. Though it often seems the TDCA and TADW have trouble seeing up my way in terms of velocity.
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Something may be trying to organize right along the river crossing into DC. Suspicious on velocity.
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About as high as I've seen that CIMSS prob severe product go in our area. This supercell is outlined with 92% wind 39% tor probs.
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Some of the higher tilts velocity scans are showing nice rotation a bit off the deck SW of Falls Church. Wow.
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The TOR probs on the CIMSS product @Eskimo Joe - shared a while back are really ticking up on this complex. It looks legit... For those that don't have it - here is the placefile (can be used in GR) http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/NOAACIMSS_PROBSEVERE
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I set my alarm for 2:15 - probably could have snuck another hour or so in at least IMBY. Probably wise to go back to sleep after this stuff passes. Southern end of that cluster is worth watching too.
