Jump to content

Kmlwx

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    13,111

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Site not letting me for size restrictions it seems like - it looks pretty robust, though. I looked using the COD site https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ but Tropical Tidbits should also give a good view.
  2. Kmlwx
    NAM nest really rakes a line through PA. Not much convectively for us.
  3. Kmlwx
    Looks like areas near Hagerstown, Frederick, Westminster and similar place sin N Central MD are getting breaks in the clouds already. Most of the models are still not super enthused about pumping dews up. I am at 60 degrees on the temp AND dew right now. If we can hold in the lower 60s for dews - perhaps we can sneak some storms in.
  4. Kmlwx
    Let's see how much clearing we can realize.
  5. Kmlwx
    Get that computer hooked up to a UPS! Even a smaller one will at least shield it better than a standard surge suppressor to the blips during high wind.
  6. Kmlwx
    Loud thunder early this morning here in Colesville. Woke me up and I was surprised to see a decent radar signature. PWS picked up 7 nearby lightning strikes (first detection of the year!)
  7. Kmlwx
    Latest models are more tame on the wind, and keep any severe threat mainly to the east of most of us. @CAPE - you're in a good spot to see some rough weather today IMO. I think the vast majority of us are just too far west. Hopefully I can see some good gusts!
  8. Kmlwx
    That is a massive run-over-run change. @high risk in the other thread rightfully mentioned he'd like to see 0z before giving it any backing (no pun intended). For the superstitious folks...seems like as soon as we decided the obs thread would be a better place this run came out
  9. Kmlwx
    Yeah....NAM nest has elevated supercell composite and sigtor parameters for the area tomorrow around 20z. Wow.
  10. Kmlwx
    We do seem to have this come up a few times a year. I think the best way to view it is that nobody is like "F YEAH A TREE TOOK MY NEIGHBOR OUT" - but if mother nature is going to bring us exciting weather - we are going to track it out of fascination as weather enthusiasts. We have no control over whether it happens or not.
  11. Kmlwx
    That's a good point - that Isabel damage was other-worldly.
  12. Kmlwx
    Tend to have more widespread damage with unusual gust directions it seems - trees not "used to" it
  13. Kmlwx
    I've been split on where to post - I guess we can do the synoptic discussion in the obs thread since it's not technically "severe" and if a line DOES materialize we can do that in here. Tough with these early season events sometimes. I do like having the severe stuff under one "roof" because it's fun to go back and read in a single thread sometimes after an event (even years later)
  14. Kmlwx
    Will be curious to see if LWX goes with wind advisories or high wind warnings - seems if it's going to be dependent on a line they might just do wind advisories with the exception of the high elevations and then cover the more intense short-term wind threat with special weather statements or severe "thunderstorm" warnings.
  15. Kmlwx
    The 6z NAM nest is high wind warning criteria gusts for most of the metro area tomorrow afternoon. 55kts shown IMBY. That's an increase over prior runs. It even has some 40kt gusts TONIGHT for our area.
  16. Kmlwx
    I don't want to start the whole global warming conversation - but I could see our severe season getting extended with a warmer/more humid climate. Late March could become a more fruitful severe producing time of year.
  17. Kmlwx
    It can definitely get breezy with southerly winds - but yeah...our BIG winds are those NW wind events behind big storm systems typically in the fall/winter/spring. EC is more in check with their gusts showing in the lower 50s. If there is a synoptic wind event, I'm guessing it'll be pretty "typical" with widespread wind advisories and then perhaps high wind warnings for the ridgetops.
  18. Kmlwx
    in fact...GFS wind gust product has 60-65mph gusts Saturday afternoon. If we can't get severe that would be a heck of a wind event...
  19. Kmlwx
    That's some strong wind...
  20. Kmlwx
    It seems the models are keeping things positively tilted - 2002 was a negatively tilted trough as it went through the Great Lakes region. Again, never was saying it would be anything close to that...but the EC *was* yesterday more neutral/negative than the GFS but it seems to have gone more positive overnight. One thing that looks nice thus far is that the GFS has ample clearing on Saturday afternoon. It's still early in the season, but there could be some severe potential. We still got mentioned in the D4-8 outlook.
  21. Kmlwx
    Thanks! I had fallen asleep thus my non-reply! The "good" news is for @Brasiluvsnow that because it's a loop...even if you took the wrong way you'd still eventually get back to 95...just much longer
  22. Kmlwx
    By no means am I predicting anything similar...but the 500mb and surface low is not insanely dissimilar compared to April 28th, 2002 (La Plata) for this coming weekend. It even shows up as the last place ranked analog on one of the sectors on CIPS (had to go digging). GFS has the H5 pass much more positive but there's a lot of time to go. LWX had a good writeup in their afternoon discussion. I'm intrigued enough for this range...and this is a few weeks earlier than that event...but of course we are in a warmer climate since 2002 and again...H5 is not worlds apart.
  23. Kmlwx
    Just to clarify - if you're going back the same way you came - it'll be 49A for the exit and then 695 EAST towards Glen Burnie. Glad it worked out! Safe travels!
  24. Kmlwx
    Way too far out for any clarity - but here's a little shoutout for our area in the D4-8 outlook Severe potential could continue eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast on Day 6/Saturday. A moist boundary-layer will exist across these areas ahead of the east/south advancing cold front. However, timing and location of the surface low and focus of strong shear/large-scale ascent is uncertain, and predictability is too low to delineate any areas at this time.
  25. Kmlwx
    Lightning marker on the ENTLN data in southern Frederick County!
×
×
  • Create New...