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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
  2. Kmlwx
    12z GFS continues with lower dewpoints, lower MLLR (significantly lower!) and an overall lesser threat IMO. It's holding steady on those lower dews. I don't think we'll see the 75+ degree dews necessarily. But thinking that will be a key factor here. If dewpoints mix down to the mid 60s - it will probably be a very toned down/limited threat...if we can hold them 69+ I think the threat will be beefier. Definitely on board with Eskimo Joe in terms of these all being very small scale factors that we can't easily resolve this far out. Also remember the usual NAM vs GFS bias of NAM going bonkers with instability sometimes.
  3. Kmlwx
    I'm still onboard for the most part. Usual caveats still apply 3 days out. Certainly the best threat from 3+ days out I've seen this year IMO.
  4. Kmlwx
    The NAM and RGEM (and hinted on some of the non GFS globals) pop a bit of a low or at least something resembling one in parts of our area Monday PM. This seems to get that SE wind and enhances dewpoints. The less favorable models seem to keep it more SWerly instead of SErly
  5. Kmlwx
    The 18z GFS is 3-6 degrees lower on dewpoints than the NAM for Monday...and lower MLLR as well. Subsequently...parameters are much lower, CAPE is much lower and the threat seems a lot more garden variety versus the NAM. The nice thing is...a lot of the other globals seem closer to the NAM.
  6. Kmlwx
    Screenshot spamming - but I will take my chances with this H5 look most times
  7. Kmlwx
  8. Kmlwx
    18z NAM (12km) sounding from Pivotal site. I clicked and dragged so it would take an average sounding of MoCo essentially. Again...caveat that it is the NAM at range...but damn....MLLR that aren't horrible, ample CAPE, EHI and SRH up there...and SARS percentages nothing to sneeze at. Look at that SE wind at the surface too...
  9. Kmlwx
    One other thing about the 18z NAM soundings....the SARS numbers/results have been steadily getting more impressive. It's gone from 40-50% in the TOR and hail columns to now into the 50-60+ percent range.
  10. Kmlwx
    The 18z 12km NAM looks great if I'm being honest. really nice sim reflectivity, especially for it being the 12km resolution. Of course...it's the NAM at range. I hope the lackluster 12z GFS run was a blip...we'll see here soon. Frankly...if we took the 18z NAM at face value...I'm guessing it would be a ENH day if not higher.
  11. Kmlwx
    I've been downloading from here - https://www.wxtools.org/
  12. Kmlwx
    Good news is that at a minimum we should have chances at a few rounds of storms late weekend and into the holiday. While that potential squall line Sun night into Mon AM could spoil Mon afternoon, seems odds for storms for most are pretty high. Remains to be seen what the actual severe potential looks like. I got all my GR products updated and downloaded some new color tables....so I probably jinxed us.
  13. Kmlwx
    12z CIPS at hour 84..if you cheat a little and use the Southeast Domain instead of the one over us, April 29, 2002 at 0z is the top analog (La Plata event). Also one of the June 1998 beefy events showing up. Overall the CIPS guidance looks more robust at the 12z run versus the overnight run. I was pretty enthusiastic with how the Euro looks latest run too.
  14. Kmlwx
    12z GFS backed wayyy off on the Monday threat. Instability looks much lower. This is why we can't "bank on" anything days out ahead. We'll see how things look later in the weekend.
  15. Kmlwx
    June 2013 (the big event) is showing up in the analogs
  16. Kmlwx
    The supercell composite maps have improved a decent bit from prior runs. If that continues to look good or even improve, I'll be on board. Still a bit too far out to be at all confident.
  17. Kmlwx
    If @Amped is excited - that's usually a good indication for severe.
  18. Kmlwx
    I wish had had a better memory of the sequence of late May to early June 1998. I wasn't THAT young...but for some reason I just can't remember specifics. My memory starts to become clearer starting around the Sept 2001 College Park tornado...but before that...really blurry if any memory at all. June 2008 seemed like a decent "heater" period along with June 2012.
  19. Kmlwx
    October 18th of that year (1990) had an outbreak as well. Most of what I can find are write-ups that might not be DC area centered and archived articles from the WaPo and similar.
  20. Kmlwx
    Using MBY in Silver Spring/Colesville as a point, the IEM SPC Outlook filtering guide shows *TEN* moderate risk days from May to October in 1990. Obviously, meteorology wasn't advanced as it was...but that was either a heck of a bust year or we were absolutely getting rocked and rolled. I wasn't born yet
  21. Kmlwx
    CIPS is a little less enthusiastic on the 0z overnight run. But it will wax and wane I'm sure. I was doing some boredom research and it definitely looks like the idea that we go on heaters followed by long periods of "meh" severe weather is legit - at least judging solely by SPC outlook categories. I found some stretches in the 90s of heater runs of moderate risks in a month period. Wish I was old enough to distinctly remember those. SPC Outlook archives on their website only go back to 2000 - Googling can get you some but not a comprehensive list of pre-2000. Fun to do in free time. Nerds....we are.
  22. Kmlwx
    Who knows when the next time we'll see a TOR driven moderate risk around these parts. Exceedingly rare.
  23. Kmlwx
    From June 1, 2012
  24. Kmlwx
    Lots of nothing...BUT the domain that is centered over us has the following: For the 84hr mark: June 24-25, 1996 (multiple tornado day in NoVA), June 2-3, 1998 (big time eastern US tornado outbreak - also quickly followed the May 1998 derecho outbreak). For the 132hr mark there are two domains mostly overlapping each other. Doing some pick and choose shows June 1-2, 2012 and April 27/28/29 event in 2011.
  25. Kmlwx
    Don't look now but the 12z CIPS guidance has some excitement at the 84hr frames and the 132hr frames.
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