Kmlwx

Could be me being a wx weenie but I think the current radar matches the HRRR better than the NAM snoozer. 

Warmth is building even up into Johnstown, PA and Pitt area. It's just this little wedge we are still dealing with. Needs to breakup relatively soon to juice us up. 

Also interesting to note that MCD highlights areas that are very stable so far (locally in the DC/Baltimore metros.)

Front Royal is reporting 79 so the temps are rising closer in now. 

Just now, yoda said:

Give it an hour or so and we should be clearing nicely IMO... and I'm not liking tomorrow with 0-6km shear looking abysmal of 20-25 kts

That would seem to indicate pulse storms mostly/multicell unless you get a nice cold pool to propagate a line. 

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

LOL...just like that we have sun and patches of blue sky in Gaithersburg. Maybe this'll work out? I'm not terribly confident in today.

Like I said before - all my eggs are in today since I won't be around tomorrow  

So I'm hoping for a regionwide event. I'll be looking at GOES a lot today. 

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The the HRRR line of doom is to be believed, then we need some sun within the next hour and a half...we are cool and stable as all get out right now.

Yeah - wedge is holding very well. 60s temps all the way well into VA. We need warmth stat. HRRR runs warm us into the mid to upper 70s. 

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

14z HRRR continues the beat of having a good MCS complex rolling through the region 21z-23z

yeah the HRRR would be area-wide raking this evening. Wonder if it has to do with capping on the NAM not being broken. Pretty stark difference. HRRR has been quite consistent...so one of them will bust pretty large. 

Of note - the HRRRx is pretty much a snoozer except for a few cells. 

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

12z NAM says what storms?

Yeah it's night and day with the HRRR. And the differences on sim radar show up by like 4-6 hours out. Wow. 

I hope today performs well IMBY. Flying out at 7am tomorrow so whatever happens tomorrow I will miss out on. Also hoping the engine doesn't fall off my plane. 

Almost looks D-word-ish. But then again...it's the HRRR

Garden variety thunderstorms here. Nice though!

Cell in HoCo (along the MoCo line) must be trying - I have a small hail indicator on it. 

Severe possible along and NE of a line from Westminster to Towson. Garden variety to the south of that line seems like a good call right now at least. Seeimg some little popcorn showers locally around DC now. 

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The convective temp on the 12z IAD RAOB was 94 degrees so the cap may not have been completely broken.

I'm turning into you. Meh.

Some tiny cells going up in Southern Carroll and extreme northern HoCo. From looking at them on GR2Analyst - they look capped....struggling to get very high

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Radar trends still significantly favor that tornado watch zone. Looks like the best line will (as expected) go into NE Maryland. Let's see if outflow can trigger anything closer to the DC region.

That said - mesoanalysis is bonkers in a tiny area just ENE of DC. Has very high supercell parameter values there as well as high EHI. 

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Nice tongue of CAPE and helicity across the boundary for the severe t'storm and tornado watches.  Kinda psyched.

Radar trends still significantly favor that tornado watch zone. Looks like the best line will (as expected) go into NE Maryland. Let's see if outflow can trigger anything closer to the DC region.

Nice and toasty out there. Radar clear for now. MCD to our west. 

Still doesn't look particularly noteworthy for DC proper. Good parameters but not a lot ot show until you're north. Maybe it'll adjust south a bit. Or maybe capping is overplayed 

Most of the hires models like the ARW/NMM etc keep most stuff north of Mason Dixon. They're out at range for now though. 

We shall see. I'll wait for more data coming in to make an in/out call. Subject to numerous changes

I'm not in the enhanced. Sooo I'm out